Panic Meter: Which MLB Contenders Should Already Be Worried About Mounting Injuries?
In a perfect world, every team in Major League Baseball would get through 2023 without any injuries, all while the sun shined and cute puppies rained from the sky.
But since it's not a perfect world we're living in, it's time to break out the ol' "Panic Meter" and put it to eight contenders who have been hit especially hard by injuries since the '23 season began.
We considered who has been injured and how badly, as well as what the ramifications are going forward. The better the player, the worse the injury and the less equipped the team is to deal with it, the more the panic meter is going to tilt toward "high" rather than "medium" or "low."
So as to keep the focus on teams that are worse off than they were at the start of the year, we limited our scope to injuries that have occurred since Opening Day on March 30. We'll nonetheless begin with a speed round that will touch on some notable omissions.
Note: Data for total days and dollars spent for players on the injured list is courtesy of Spotrac.
Speed Round
1 of 9
Boston Red Sox
The notion that the Red Sox are a contender is pushing it, but one nonetheless sympathizes with Adam Duvall. He broke his wrist just when he on his way to a career year via a 1.544 OPS through his first eight games with Boston.
Houston Astros
The preseason injuries to Jose Altuve (broken thumb) and Lance McCullers Jr. (elbow strain) still loom large, and now Chas McCormick is going on the IL with a back issue. Fortunately, the Astros have defensive-wiz center fielder Jake Meyers to spell him in the interim.
Pittsburgh Pirates
FanGraphs only gives the Pirates a 10.9 percent chance to make the playoffs despite their 11-7 start, but one wonders where those odds would be if they hadn't lost Oneil Cruz for four months with a broken ankle. He had been looking more and more comfortable in the spotlight.
Philadelphia Phillies
Darick Hall's thumb surgery further thinned out a lineup that was already missing Bryce Harper (Tommy John surgery) and Rhys Hoskins (torn ACL). But if there's any silver lining here, it's that Hall's injury prompted Harper to volunteer to play first base upon his return.
San Diego Padres
Think the Padres miss Joe Musgrove (broken toe) and Robert Suarez (elbow inflammation)? The former is badly needed in a rotation that has a 4.46 ERA, while the latter would probably be handling high-leverage spots better than Luis Garcia has so far.
San Francisco Giants
Joey Bart and Blake Sabol should be able to handle catching duties just fine in Roberto Pérez's stead while he recovers from shoulder surgery. And Joc Pederson's wrist inflammation sounds worse than it is, as the Giants are expecting his stay on the IL to be short.
Seattle Mariners
2 of 9
Total IL Days: 81
Money Spent on IL Players: $2.6 Million
Key In-Season Injuries: LHP Robbie Ray (flexor strain), RHP Andrés Muñoz (shoulder strain)
Say what you will about Ray and his initial struggles to justify his $115 million contract, but the Mariners should want him in their rotation over Chris Flexen as they seek to recover from a slow start at 8-10.
Flexen has made three starts since Ray, the 2021 American League Cy Young Award winner, hit the IL on April 1, and those have seen him give up 14 earned runs in 13.1 innings.
For his part, Muñoz has been missing out on high-leverage spots that have largely gone to Matt Brash, Paul Sewald and Penn Murfee instead. The latter two have handled them well, but Brash has been hit to a .308 average in his.
It's good news, then, that the hard-throwing Muñoz is expected back before the calendar turns to May. Even if he's likely to need a rehab assignment in the minors, it's likewise good news that Ray has avoided surgery and is slated to return in May.
And in Flexen's defense, he's only had one bad start in Ray's stead. That was the one in which the Chicago Cubs tagged him for eight runs in 2.1 innings on April 11. On either side of that are two starts in which he's allowed a more reasonable six runs in 11 frames.
Panic Meter: Low
Atlanta
3 of 9
Total IL Days: 150
Money Spent on IL Players: $4.5 Million
Key In-Season Injuries: CF Michael Harris II (lower back strain), SS Orlando Arcia (microfracture in wrist)
Atlanta has the best record in the National League at 14-4, with a solid plus-33 run differential to boot. This is another way of saying things could be worse.
That sentiment also holds true of Harris' back injury. He didn't come off the IL when he was eligible on April 17, but the reigning National League Rookie of the Year doesn't expect to be out for much longer.
As to Arcia, there's more uncertainty there. Atlanta won't have a timetable for his recovery until he's re-evaluated sometime in the next couple weeks, but there's indeed never a good amount of time to be without a shortstop who had posted a .911 OPS out of the gate.
Still, having a guy like Vaughn Grissom to fall back on is another "could be worse" situation.
Though Atlanta notably didn't think the 22-year-old was ready to handle shortstop as recently as a few weeks ago, at least his bat has looked the part. He hit .366 at Triple-A and is off to a .316 start in the majors since Atlanta recalled him to fill Arcia's shoes.
Panic Meter: Low
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Chicago White Sox
4 of 9
Total IL Days: 98
Money Spent on IL Players: $3.9 Million
Key In-Season Injuries: SS Tim Anderson (knee sprain), 3B Yoán Moncada (back soreness), RHP Joe Kelly (groin strain)
Injuries were a major factor in the White Sox playing below expectations last season, so what they're going through right now feels like an unwelcome rerun.
There are nonetheless silver linings, including the likelihood that both Moncada and Kelly will be back on the field before May. The offense especially needs the former, who had been building on a strong spring with an .889 OPS through nine games.
Anderson's return unfortunately won't come as soon. After he initially sprained his knee on April 10, the White Sox estimated that he would be out for at least two weeks and as long as four weeks.
Not having Anderson for any length of time is significant, as there's a strong correlation between him being in the lineup and the White Sox winning that day. Since 2020, they're 150-112 when he starts and 66-74 when he doesn't.
As he's only hitting .206 so far, Elvis Andrus doesn't figure to do much to help reverse this trend while Anderson is out. With the White Sox already struggling to keep up in the AL Central at 7-11, the vibes are ominous.
Panic Meter: Medium
Milwaukee Brewers
5 of 9
Total IL Days: 129
Money Spent on IL Players: $1.7 Million
Key In-Season Injuries: RHP Brandon Woodruff (shoulder strain), INF Luis Urías (hamstring strain)
The Brewers are off to a good start at 13-5, but they've gotten some scares in the last couple days. Corbin Burnes had to leave his start early on Monday, followed by Garrett Mitchell leaving early on Tuesday with what appeared to be a shoulder subluxation.
Though the Brewers don't yet know the severity of Mitchell's injury, at least Burnes is OK. The 2021 NL Cy Young Award winner has a minor pectoral strain that's not expected to keep him from his next start.
The Brewers could also be worse off at third base. Not having Urías until late May or early June is a blow on paper, but Brian Anderson (1.144 OPS) and Mike Brosseau (.889 OPS) have been raking at the hot corner ever since he went down on Opening Day.
If only it was so easy to be as rosy on Woodruff. Even if the Brewers haven't yet outlined a specific timetable for the ace right-hander's recovery, Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs wrote that sub-scapular strains like the one he has can take months to heal.
With Adrian Houser (groin strain) and Aaron Ashby (shoulder surgery) already missing from the Brewers rotation, thin ice could form under the club's position atop the NL Central if Woodruff has to miss that much time.
Panic Meter: Medium
Tampa Bay Rays
6 of 9
Total IL Days: 103
Money Spent on IL Players: $1.5 Million
Key In-Season Injuries: LHP Jeffrey Springs (Tommy John surgery), RHP Zach Eflin (back tightness), CF Jose Siri (hamstring strain)
The Rays' historic 13-0 run may be over, but they're still atop the AL East at 15-3 and due to get key pieces back in the near future.
Eflin is one of them, which is an exciting prospect for the Rays after he impressed in his first two starts for them. The other is Siri, who had been showing off all sorts of tools as he posted a 1.015 OPS while playing exciting defense out of the gate.
The news on Springs, on the other hand, is not good. The Rays revealed on Tuesday that he needs Tommy John surgery, and he won't be back until next year.
This one hurts. Springs had been on a heck of a run even before he began this year by allowing just one run over 16 innings. In 27 starts since May 9, 2022, he had pitched to 2.41 ERA.
The Rays are good enough to keep from collapsing, but the only way they won't miss Springs is if Tyler Glasnow stabilizes his rotation spot upon his return from an oblique strain. But that might not be until late May, and it would be a first if he ended up making more than 14 starts.
Panic Meter: Medium
New York Mets
7 of 9
Total IL Days: 173
Money Spent on IL Players: $9 Million
Key In-Season Injuries: RHP Justin Verlander (upper arm strain), RHP Carlos Carrasco (elbow inflammation), C Omar Narváez (calf strain)
How are the Mets 11-7 even though they've lost the most money to the injured list so far?
Having able replacements has helped. David Robertson, especially, has been aces in place of closer Edwin Díaz while he's out with a torn ACL. And even if his bat hasn't gotten going yet, top prospect Francisco Álvarez is holding his own in place of Narváez.
There are nonetheless dark clouds gathering, specifically over the rotation. It was on Opening Day that Verlander joined José Quintana (rib surgery) on the IL. Carrasco also joined on Tuesday. Max Scherzer, meanwhile, had his last start delayed by a sore back.
It's a small miracle that Mets starters have an ERA as low as 4.76 and the team is only two games behind Atlanta in the NL East. Yet they simply need to get Verlander and Scherzer together as soon as possible, so it'll do for a positive that they're expected to finally line up side-by-side before April is over.
How long Scherzer and Verlander can stay together in the rotation is nonetheless a fair question. They may have six Cy Young Awards between them, but they also have 78 years and close to 100,000 total pitches on their arms. Good health would thus be a hard thing to take for granted even if both hadn't already run afoul of the injury bug.
Panic Meter: Medium
Texas Rangers
8 of 9
Total IL Days: 126
Money Spent on IL Players: $3.3 Million
Key In-Season Injuries: SS Corey Seager (hamstring strain), C Mitch Garver (knee sprain)
What's notable here is who's not on the injured list for a Rangers team that finds itself in first place in the AL West at 11-6. Namely, Jacob deGrom and Jon Gray.
Gray took a hard line drive off his throwing arm on Saturday, but X-rays came back negative, and he's not expected to miss any starts. For his part, deGrom is also pencilled in for his next start after leaving his outing on Monday with a sore wrist.
It's fair to take this with a grain of salt, given that deGrom's injury scare is merely the latest in a long line that includes elbow and shoulder injuries that knocked him out for most of 2021 and 2022. But until further notice, it's premature to push the panic button.
Mind you, that's just for deGrom's injury. When it comes to Seager's, the panic button should be good and smashed.
His hamstring strain will require at least four weeks of recovery time. As he owns 14 of the 17 hits the Rangers have gotten from their shortstops in 2023, it's going to be a long four-plus weeks. And that may well prove to be the difference in an AL West race that's looking about as competitive as expected.
Panic Meter: High
New York Yankees
9 of 9
Total IL Days: 209
Money Spent on IL Players: $8.7 Million
Key In-Season Injuries: DH Giancarlo Stanton (hamstring strain), 3B Josh Donaldson (hamstring strain), RHP Jonathan Loáisiga (elbow inflammation)
Even though they're off to a 10-7 start, things are looking grim for the Yankees. They lead MLB in IL days, and it only seems to be harder for them to come across good news.
Indeed, they're not done getting bad news on players who began the year on the injured list. Ace left-hander Carlos Rodón had been on the comeback trail from a forearm strain, but he has since been sidetracked by back discomfort. His timeline is now murky.
As to more recent injuries, Loáisiga is on track to resume throwing Thursday or Friday, but Donaldson hit a wall on Tuesday. He was set to return as early as Wednesday, but not anymore after he experienced further tightness in his hamstring.
And then there's Stanton. His hamstring strain is of the Grade 2 variety, putting him at least six weeks away from returning. It's a blow that the Yankees would be likely to feel even if their offense wasn't already off to a modest start in outscoring only four other AL teams.
Whereas the Yankees were 143-94 with Stanton in the lineup across 2021 and 2022, they went just 48-39 otherwise. If that trend holds, they risk losing valuable ground in an AL East race that has at least three other teams vying for first place.
Panic Meter: High
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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