Ranking the 5 Worst Moves of the 2023 NFL Offseason
The NFL offseason is full of ideas that seem great at the time but end up costing in the long run.
For instance, the Denver Broncos thought they were acquiring a franchise-saving quarterback in Russell Wilson last season. Now, they've spent this offseason desperately making moves that can help that quarterback even be a mediocre starter in 2023.
The Las Vegas Raiders thought they were getting a stud pass-rushing partner for Maxx Crosby in Chandler Jones. He ended up with 4.5 sacks on the season.
The list goes on.
The trick is being able to forecast these moves and whether they will work out.
It's not an easy task. If it were, there would be far fewer general managers getting fired on a yearly basis.
These moves each have the potential to do lasting damage to their respective franchises. It's all subjective, but those decisions that are more likely to cause longer-lasting or more severe damage were ranked higher.
One other housekeeping note: We'll only be including moves that have happened. So while the Aaron Rodgers saga has arguably hurt the Packers and is questionable for the Jets, it won't be included.
5. Kansas City Chiefs Overpay Jawaan Taylor
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It's a common mistake to pay for previous production in free agency. The Chiefs went too far in the opposite direction with their signing of Jawaan Taylor.
They handed him a four-year, $80 million contract that seems to be based on a whole lot of projection.
Admittedly, Taylor has grown a lot in his first four years with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Playing on the right side, he gave up 10 and 13 sacks in his first two years, respectively. However, he adapted to the pro game and improved to the point where he only surrendered six in each of the last two seasons, per Sports Info Solutions.
Sam McDowell of the Kansas City Star reported the team believes Taylor can make the switch to left tackle.
The Chiefs let Orlando Brown Jr. walk in free agency after he played on the franchise tag last season. Brown gave up five sacks last season and was ranked 19th among tackles on PFF. He ultimately signed a four-year, $64 million contract to play with the Bengals.
For the Chiefs to get the better end of this deal, Taylor has to be notably better than Brown. Taylor might wind up being as good, but it's hard to believe he'll be good enough to make his contract make sense.
The fact that there's a good chance the Chiefs see Brown in the playoffs with the Bengals adds a little extra sting.
4. Denver Broncos Trade for Sean Payton
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Good decisions rarely come from a place of desperation. After watching Nathaniel Hackett attempt to coach the Denver Broncos last season, the trade for Sean Payton feels like an overcorrection.
Payton was the most accomplished head coach available, but the Broncos paid a steep price. Because Payton was still under contract with the Saints, they had to trade a first-round pick this season (No. 29 overall) and a 2024 second-round pick for Payton and a 2024 third-round pick.
Peter King of NBC Sports reported Payton's Broncos contract is for five years and worth around $18 million per year. That doesn't count toward the salary cap, so they don't get dinged for that, but it's a huge investment for a coach who doesn't guarantee success.
Payton is a good coach. He's won a Super Bowl and boasts a 161–97 record for his career. But there are a lot of disappointing Saints seasons mixed in there with a prime Drew Brees. For instance, the Saints went 7-9 for three consecutive seasons from 2014 to 2016.
With a year off to recharge, Payton could be just what the Broncos need. But there's also a chance that Russell Wilson is cooked and there's a rebuild right around the corner.
If that's the case, they just gave up precious draft capital for a head coach who is more suited for a readymade team to contend.
3. Denver Broncos Overpay Mike McGlinchey
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The Broncos' desperation to atone for the Russell Wilson trade continued with the five-year, $87.5 million contract they handed to right tackle Mike McGlinchey.
There's no doubt that Russell Wilson has a better chance of returning to form with better protection in front of him, but it's not like McGlinchey guarantees that. The 28-year-old ranked 35th among all tackles on PFF last season and gave up six sacks while drawing 10 penalties.
McGlinchey's success has come in a San Francisco offense that is offensive-line friendly. There's a heavy reliance on the zone run game, play action and rollouts, all of which protect tackles from having to take true pass sets or displace defenders in the run game.
Kaleb McGary is arguably a better player. He's the same age, plays right tackle and allowed six sacks but only drew five penalties, per PFF. The Falcons re-signed him to a three-year, $34.5 million contract.
There's still $107 million left in guarantees on Russell Wilson's contract. The Broncos couldn't afford to overpay for another player who may not live up to expectations on a long-term deal.
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2. Carolina Panthers Give Up a Lot to Move Up to No. 1 Pick
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The Broncos aren't the only team that felt the frustration of disappointing quarterback play. The Panthers have had to deal with it for years now.
Carolina has turned things over to reclamation projects in Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield. They've gone the reliable veteran route in Teddy Bridgewater and even tried to bring back Cam Newton over the last two years.
In that sense, it's logical the Panthers are set on drafting a quarterback this year. But the price they paid to make sure they get their first pick of them is substantial.
The Panthers gave up the ninth and 61st selections in this draft as well as their first- and second-round picks and wide receiver D.J. Moore to move up to the No. 1 pick.
If the Panthers had a readymade offense that could take off with just the right quarterback, this move would be justified. Without Moore, they are far from that.
The offensive line is decent enough. Ikem Ekwonu should continue to improve after a good rookie campaign, and Taylor Moton is not a liability at right tackle.
But Miles Sanders only had one 1,000-yard rushing season while playing behind an elite offensive line in Philadelphia. The receiving corps will be led by a 32-year-old Adam Thielen and the oft-injured D.J. Chark.
It's not a great situation for a young quarterback to walk into even if Frank Reich is a good quarterback coach.
The Panthers still have work to do to build an offense around C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young or Anthony Richardson. They'll now have to do it without Moore and multiple premium draft picks.
1. Baltimore Ravens Franchise-Tag Lamar Jackson
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This should have all been avoided.
Back in August, Jay Glazer of Fox Sports reported the Ravens offered more money than the five-year, $230.5 million contract that Kyler Murray received from the Cardinals. Glazer speculated that Jackson would want a fully guaranteed contract like the one Deshaun Watson got from the Browns.
So the parameters for these contract negotiations were set before the 2022 season even started. At that point, the Ravens likely knew that Jackson was going to want a fully guaranteed deal and they knew whether or not they were willing to do that.
If they were, they should have been up front about that. If they weren't, they should have traded the quarterback while his value was at its highest.
Instead, they have let the negotiations fester, they used the non-exclusive franchise tag, and their franchise quarterback has requested a trade.
The Ravens are playing a dangerous game of chicken with their franchise quarterback. t
At best, Jackson signs an extension but the Ravens have already faced plenty of criticism from former and current players. The damage is done to the reputation of the franchise.
At worst, Jackson leaves after a year of playing on the franchise tag and the Ravens are left with a compensatory pick for his departure.
Nether is really a good scenario for the Ravens and exemplifies how they've botched the whole process.
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