After Giving Up on NBA Play-in, What's Next for Luka Dončić and the Dallas Mavericks?

The Dallas Mavericks called it a season Friday by shutting down Luka Dončić before mathematical elimination, but the loss to the Chicago Bulls was an ugly necessity for the franchise's future.

The play-in may have reduced tanking overall, but it remains situationally endemic to the NBA. This was the must-lose game for Dallas. Both teams held 38-42 records going into the matchup, tied for the 10th-worst record in the league.

With the loss, Dallas sits alone at No. 10 in the lottery—the exact number protecting its 2023 first-round pick from conveying to the New York Knicks in June, as it still owes a first-rounder from the 2019 Kristaps Porziņģis deal.

This isn't about Victor Wembanyama and the 3 percent chance of a Dallas miracle. It's about having a key asset with the team at a crossroads.

The Mavericks made the play for Kyrie Irving ahead of the deadline to partner him with Dončić. But too much depth was lost to compete viably for the postseason.

Now the time nears to either recommit to Irving, an impending free agent, and flesh out the rest of the roster or go in a different direction entirely.

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The Irving Question

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Getting a player as talented as Irving isn't easy—even if competing executives and scouts wonder if Dallas will ever be a real contender with two stars who are defensive liabilities. But many agree that the small sample wasn't enough, not with the roster as constructed.

According to multiple NBA sources, Irving was motivated to leave the Brooklyn Nets because the team was reluctant to pay him his asking price, starting at the projected maximum salary of $46.9 million (the exact number is to be determined, as the NBA and NBPA are still writing up the new collective bargaining rules in the form of a term sheet).

Soon the Mavericks will be able to pay him that max, but will they?

Most teams that project to have significant cap room this summer are the rebuilding types such as the Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs. Some sources wonder if Irving has enough leverage to demand a max deal with the Mavericks.

"Where else is he going to go?" one source said.

Irving, who initially refused to apologize for amplifying an antisemitic movie via social media and subsequently served an eight-game suspension with Brooklyn earlier this season, missed a significant portion of the 2021-22 campaign because of his refusal to get the COVID-19 vaccine.

He also forced his way out of Cleveland and famously backed out of a promise to re-sign in Boston.

Another source called Irving "a complicated individual, quick to find insult," who may decide he doesn't want to be in Dallas if the team doesn't offer everything it possibly can.

Pencil in a marriage of convenience with Irving back to Dallas on a significant salary, maybe even as high as the max.

"Getting Irving to stay shouldn't be a problem for the Mavericks," a different source said. "The issues will start once they bring him back."

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Who Is Under Contract and What's Missing?

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With Dončić and Irving, scoring won't be a problem for the squad. The team has several veterans such as Maxi Kleber, Tim Hardaway Jr., Dāvis Bertāns, Reggie Bullock (only $5.5 million of his $10.5 million is guaranteed) and younger emerging players like Josh Green and Jaden Hardy. The offseason signing of JaVale McGee was a miscalculation; the team could still use a starting center.

Dallas gave up the more dependable three-and-D wing in Dorian Finney-Smith, who the team badly needs to replace. Christian Wood, also an impending free agent, is more impactful offensively than defensively. Other free agents include Dwight Powell, Frank Ntilikina, Theo Pinson, Markieff Morris, Justin Holiday and McKinley Wright IV.

Assuming Irving returns, the Mavericks must fill the roster with defensive-minded role players, preferably with size, length and shooting ability. A third scorer, like Wood, would help, but Dallas' most pressing needs are players who can cover for what Dončić and Irving can't do defensively.

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Why the Lottery Matters

How patient will Dončić be in Dallas on a team that can't make the playoffs?

Fortunately, the Mavericks have him locked in for three more seasons (four with his player option). With a player of that caliber, the team faces significant pressure to win as close to "now" as possible.

Even at No. 10, the Mavericks only have a 79.8 percent chance of keeping their pick, which could drop to the Knicks in the 11-15 range. While the team could benefit from a prospect (such as Villanova's Cam Whitmore, Kentucky's Cason Wallace, Arkansas' Anthony Black, Kansas' Gradey Dick, etc.), it's rare when a rookie can meaningfully impact a playoff team.

Instead, the Mavericks could look to pick on behalf of another franchise and execute a trade soon after (the team can't deal its 2023 selection beforehand since it will owe New York its 2024 selection). Bertāns ($17 million next season with $5 million guaranteed for 2024-25) might be passable as salary ballast for a rebuilding team eager to add a top-10 pick.

Others such as McGee and Hardaway could be needed in a bigger deal. Or the Mavericks could look to go after multiple veterans at the cost of youth (with Green and/or Hardy out).

Dallas can also send out its 2027 first-round pick, though it has limited means to protect that selection. Since that's after Dončić's option year, it would be a high-value draft asset but one the Mavericks should be extremely hesitant to deal.

New trade rules are expected to be restrictive to teams over the tax, but it's unclear how quickly those limitations will go into effect.

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The Wish List

Assuming Irving returns, the Mavericks might have an eye (via trade) on Phoenix Suns center Deandre Ayton. Per NBA sources, Dallas also eyed Indiana Pacers center Myles Turner and Atlanta Hawks forward/center John Collins before the trade deadline.

The team could look into the availability of players such as O.G. Anunoby (Toronto Raptors), Jaden McDaniels (Minnesota Timberwolves), Luguentz Dort (Oklahoma City Thunder), Alex Caruso (Bulls), Gary Trent Jr. (Raptors, player option), Robert Covington (Los Angeles Clippers), Mo Bamba (Los Angeles Lakers) and Jalen Suggs (Orlando Magic), among many others.

Free agency is difficult to peg until the rule changes are evident, but Dallas can get near $28.5 million in cap space without Irving, Wood, Bullock and others. That number dips by about $5 million with the No. 10 pick.

The Mavericks might be hard-pressed to add size, replace Irving and supplement the size and shooting with that budget (plus a projected room mid-level exception in the $7 million to $7.6 million range).

If Irving, Wood and others are retained, Dallas projects to be over the luxury tax, which could initially limit the team to the $7 million room mid-level exception—but only if it doesn't exceed a new, second apron. That's why the franchise needs to tread carefully through the Irving negotiation. Wood could be an economic casualty—shedding Bertāns a priority.

The budget for free agency may be limiting for Dallas, so a trade (and the No. 10 pick) may be the path of least resistance. Some free agents who might help the Mavericks, depending on how much the team has to spend, could include Bruce Brown Jr. (player option with the Denver Nuggets), Matisse Thybulle (restricted with the Portland Trail Blazers), Troy Brown Jr., Josh Okogie, Jalen McDaniels and Dario Šarić, etc.

The decision to give up on the play-in may not have gone over well with fans, but the Mavericks correctly self-evaluated that they had no real path to sustained success this year. If the team can add a high-level prospect in the draft or use that pick as trade currency, Dallas might be able to construct a better-fitting roster around its two elite scorers.

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