The Year of Shohei Ohtani: Why 2023 MLB Season Revolves Around Angels Star
What happens when the best baseball player in the world enters the most crucial year of his career? We're already finding out.
Shohei Ohtani has indeed dropped quite the early hint that his 2023 experience will lean toward the extraordinary. He did it by spearheading Japan's undefeated run to its third World Baseball Classic championship in that particular fashion that's at once familiar, yet utterly unique to him.
Ohtani dominated at the plate with a 1.345 OPS and on the mound with a 1.86 ERA and 11 strikeouts. The last of those will be replayed until the end of time, and then into whatever comes after.
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"I thought it was like a Manga," Japan teammate Kazuma Okamoto said of Ohtani's climactic punchout of United States captain and Los Angeles Angels teammate Mike Trout, "like a comic book."
If the question is whether Ohtani's star power has ever been greater, the answer is no. It's so big that the baseball world revolves around it.
Google interest in Ohtani, the 2021 American League MVP and two-time All-Star, over the last 30 days dwarfs that of Trout and fellow megastar Aaron Judge. And even though he can't cash in on the free-agent market until the coming winter, Ohtani is already the highest-paid player in baseball. Justin Birnbaum of Forbes reported that he'll earn $65 million this year between his endorsements and his $30 million salary with the Angels.
But if the next question is whether Ohtani's year can still get more dramatic, that one's a yes.
The Peak of Ohtani? It Could Happen.
Of all the notions that strain belief, that we still haven't seen Ohtani's peak yet is practically in hernia-inducing territory.
He did, after all, put together a case for the best season ever in 2021, finishing with 46 home runs and 26 stolen bases as a hitter and a 3.18 ERA as a pitcher. And then he did it again in 2022, this time with "only" 34 homers and 11 steals but with a 16-point spike in his batting average and a 2.33 ERA, plus the highest strikeout rate among AL hurlers.
Yet even though Ohtani pitched well from wire to wire last year, it wasn't until the end that he went full-on turbo. His last seven starts yielded a 1.00 ERA, with 40 more strikeouts than walks.
That was a case of him throwing his weight behind a sinker that he had only recently added to a pitch mix that was being let down by a four-seam fastball that, even as it often touched 100 mph, was hittable.
The sinker figures to play an even more prominent role for Ohtani in 2023, albeit as a supporting character to a slider (some call it a sweeper) and splitter that are among the best in their classes. All together, his stuff has a chance to go from among the best to the best.
On the other side of the ball, Ohtani's offensive game should improve even if his power remains in the 40-homer range. The bigger bases will help him get more out of his speed, while the shift ban will nix a disadvtange he faced 88 percent of the time in 2022.
It's not hard to envision this year resulting in the best numbers from Ohtani's '21 and '22 seasons clashing together. As in, to form an average close to .300, 40-odd home runs, 20-odd stolen bases and an ERA in the low-2.00s with an elite strikeout rate.
The Trade of Ohtani? It Could Happen.
Remember when Ohtani was the subject of trade rumors as the Angels were mired in a 46-72 slide to the end of the 2022 season? Those didn't last long and ultimately amounted to nothing, reportedly because Angels owner Arte Moreno wanted nothing to do with them.
Moreno himself effectively confirmed that report in his recent interview with Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated. He also said he means to stick to his proverbial guns...on one condition.
"I will say it on the record," Moreno told Verducci. "We will not trade Ohtani while we are contending for a playoff spot."
Not only is it not a given that the Angels will contend for a playoff spot in 2023, it may not be likely either. The Draftkings Sportsbook puts the line on their qualifying for the postseason at +155 (bet $100 to win $155), implying a 39.2 percent chance. If anything, maybe a touch generous for a club that's coming into 2023 on a wave of seven straight losing seasons.
Because he'll be a pending free agent this time, a for-real version of last year's short-lived Ohtani trade sweepstakes would be hard to avoid if 2023 turns into yet another flop for the Angels. Knowing that each has previously been reported as having interest, it doesn't take much to speculate that the Los Angeles Dodgers (here), San Diego Padres (here), New York Mets (here) and New York Yankees (here) would be first in line.
As far as what it could take to land Ohtani, the simulator at Baseball Trade Values rated a one-for-one swap with the Mets for catcher Francisco Álvarez, currently MLB.com's No. 3 prospect, as a fair deal. And likewise for hypothetical deals with the Dodgers for right-hander Bobby Miller (No. 24) and second baseman Michael Busch (No. 54) and with the Yankees for outfielder Jasson Dominguez (No. 47) and shortstop Oswald Peraza (No. 52).
Granted, these are fair deals today and not three or four months from now. Ohtani will be halfway to the open market by then, and thus hypothetically half as valuable.
Yet it's perhaps not beyond the pale to think that a midsummer trade of Ohtani could resemble one of those packages. Even if they would be overpays in the abstract, there's nothing more deserving of an overpay in reality than a transcendental two-way star.
The October of Ohtani? It Could Happen.
Then again, what if a trade to a bigger, badder contender isn't Ohtani's only route to his first ever MLB playoff appearance? What if he and the Angels can get there together?
Their chances are better than the betting odds let on. Take it from FanGraphs, which gives them a 48 percent chance of snapping a playoff drought that dates back to 2014. Or better yet, from Baseball Prospectus, which puts that chance at 54 percent.
This Angels team is significantly deeper than the ones that came before, with Ohtani at the forefront of a potentially elite starting rotation and in the middle an offense that could likewise be something special.
Let's not overlook that Taylor Ward was playing like an MVP before he hurt his shoulder last May. Or that Anthony Rendon is finally healthy and has looked it as he's racked up a 1.358 OPS in spring training. Or that, oh yeah, Trout is a three-time MVP who's that much hungrier for October after playing in the World Baseball Classic.
It's a reach to think that these Angels can challenge the Houston Astros for the AL West title, but they do give off an energy reminiscent of last year's Philadelphia Phillies. It's that of a team that, should it get in, would have just the right pieces for a deep playoff run.
One thing is for sure: Whether in Anaheim or elsewhere, it's been foretold that Ohtani is fully capable of owning October.
Even before the World Baseball Classic, signs that Ohtani could handle pressure were there for anyone who cared to look. In high-leverage spots across 2021 and 2022, he posted a 1.047 OPS as a hitter and held opposing batters to a .477 OPS as a pitcher. Among all those who faced at least 150 such situations, both figures ranked No. 1.
The Massive Payday of Ohtani? Oh, That'll Definitely Happen.
There's still a chance that Ohtani will sign an extension with the Angels before he reaches free agency, thought it doesn't sound like anyone should count on it.
"Shohei's earned the right to play through the year, explore free agency," his agent, Nez Balelo, told reporters in February, "and we will see where that shakes out."
Early projections for Ohtani's next contract haven't been on the conservative side. Jon Heyman of the New York Post and Alden Gonzalez of ESPN have both floated $500 million. Buster Olney, Gonzalez's colleague at ESPN, more recently aimed even higher:
These figures might seem absurd. Ridiculous, even.
They are not.
FanGraphs' WAR-based value metric puts Ohtani's hypothetical free-agent value over the last two seasons at $140.2 million. That's $70 million per year. Split that evenly in half, and you get $35 million for his hitting and pitching services. Not an unheard of rate, given that eight players under contract for at least that much per year.
The elephant in the room is whether the boom times for free agents that began this past offseason will continue into the next one. Specifically, said elephant is in the shape of the collapse of regional sports networks and its implied damage to revenues.
But even setting aside the advantage of being, well, Shohei Ohtani, Ohtani's other advantage will be one of scarcity.
With Rafael Devers and Manny Machado off the board, the next-best free agents on next winter's market will be guys like Aaron Nola, Julio Urías, Matt Chapman and Amed Rosario. Good players, but not quite the competition that Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Jacob deGrom, Dansby Swanson, Carlos Rodón and Brandon Nimmo represented to Judge this past winter. Even then, he still set a free-agent record with a $360 million guarantee.
If he could sign something today, Ohtani would almost certainly beat both that and Trout's record-setting $426.5 million contract. If 2023 results in his best season yet and postseason heroics, there will be no "almost certainly" about it.
In any case, it's past time to grab a front-row seat to the Year of Ohtani. It's only just begun.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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