It's Time for Rams to Trade Matthew Stafford, Jalen Ramsey and Embrace Full Rebuild
Just 13 months ago, the Los Angeles Rams were celebrating their victory over the Cincinnati Bengals in Super Bowl LVI. But life moves fast, especially in the NFL, and on the brink of free agency following a 5-12 season, it's already time for the Rams to trim fat and store up resources for a rebuild.
The Rams knew what they were doing when they consistently sold off first-round picks and extended monster contracts to a wide array of veteran standout players in the years leading up to that 2021 Super Bowl campaign. And the team and its fans certainly wouldn't change that for anything.
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But they were blatantly mortgaging their future at the time, and now it's time to pay that debt.
It appears they may have come to that realization, even with head coach Sean McVay remaining on board despite rumors he'd leave this offseason. Michael Lombardi reported on The Pat McAfee Show this week that "the Rams have called teams trying to move [quarterback] Matthew Stafford," while ESPN's Jeremy Fowler suggested last month that the the team could decide to move on from Pro Bowl cornerback Jalen Ramsey.
That's the right approach for a team that, albeit with horrendous injury luck, ranked in the bottom 10 in terms of DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at Football Outsiders in 2022 and faces a tremendous uphill climb in the NFC West regardless of whether McVay, Stafford, Ramsey and other key vets remain in place.
Trading Stafford and Ramsey wouldn't be easy and would actually result in short-term dead-cap hits in either case, but better to bite those bullets now and get it over with instead of paying those premiums as each player ages. Plus, if you're unofficially throwing in the towel on 2023 anyway, you can hardly put a price tag on the resources you're likely to get in return for such accomplished players.
Still just 28 and coming off a second consecutive complete season with four interceptions and a sub-85 opposing passer rating, Ramsey is a three-time first-team All-Pro. Just three-and-a-half years ago, the Rams surrendered two first-round picks and a fourth-round selection to acquire him from the Jacksonville Jaguars, so you'd have to imagine he'd still be worth at least a first-rounder to a Rams team that lacks a one this spring for the seventh year in a row.
In fact, each of their last four first-round selections were sacrificed for Ramsey (2020 and 2021) and Stafford (2022 and 2023), who also cost them a third-rounder and Stafford's predecessor, Jared Goff, in a deal with the Detroit Lions. Since that 2021 trade, Stafford has added a Super Bowl ring and a triple-digit-rated season to his resume, and at 35 he's still by no means ancient in quarterback terms.
Teams more likely to contend in 2023 with a final puzzle piece like Ramsey, Stafford, or even 30-year-old Leonard Floyd, 29-year-old Cooper Kupp or 31-year-old Aaron Donald are likely to attach more value to guys like that than a Rams squad with what Spotrac estimates to be a $14.5 million salary-cap hole.
With those players aging after a five-win season, that cap jam and a lack of draft capital, the Rams' trajectory is negative. This is the only way to set the course straight again, even if it means plenty of pain in 2023 and probably 2024.
Per Spotrac, they can still save $8 million in 2023 by dealing Stafford after June 1; Ramsey would save them $5.6 million if dealt right now; a post-June 1 parting with Floyd would generate $15.5 million in cap savings; a post-June 1 Kupp trade would save them $20 million; and they'd raise $16.5 million by dealing Donald after June 1.
Plus, they'd probably really suck as a result, which means when they finally have a chance to use their own first-round pick in 2024, it'll probably be a primo slot.
Deal all of those guys and you'll easily possess four or more first-rounders in '23 and '24 combined, plus some added draft capital outside of Round 1 and the benefit of much more financial freedom in the years to come.
Sacrificing a season or two isn't fun, but the Rams just have to do the calculus and come to grips with the fact they're extremely unlikely to land another Vince Lombardi Trophy with this core. Currently, the division-rival San Francisco 49ers are the favorite at DraftKings to go to the Super Bowl from the NFC, while the Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions also have superior Super Bowl odds, and the division-rival Seattle Seahawks are coming off a playoff season themselves with two first-round picks and plenty of cap space with which to work.
Nobody will ever take that Super Bowl win from this Rams team, but it's time to accept this version of the squad isn't on track to become a dynasty. It's time to take drastic action.
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