Cody Bellinger, Fernando Tatis Jr. and 10 MLB Players with the Most to Prove in 2023
Whether it's a return from injury, upcoming free agency or a disappointing season in the rearview, MLB players can enter the new season with something to prove for a variety of reasons.
One of the most prominent players who fit that category this year is San Diego Padres star Fernando Tatis Jr., who spent the entire 2022 season on the sidelines, first recovering from an injury and then serving an 80-game PED suspension. Can he get back to where he was in 2021, both from a production and an image standpoint?
Injuries were not the issue for Cody Bellinger, who simply has not produced the last several seasons with the Los Angeles Dodgers after winning NL MVP honors in 2019. Will a change of scenery and the motivation of a one-year deal help him rebound?
Those are two of the players we've highlighted here as having the most to prove during the 2023 season, with our list compiled based on what's at stake for each player in terms of playing time, financial implications or long-term role.
Who else are we watching?
Honorable Mentions
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But first, here are a few other players with a lot on the line in 2023:
- OF Jo Adell, LAA (post-hype)
- SS Javier Báez, DET (bounce-back candidate, opt-out after 2023)
- C Joey Bart, SF (post-hype)
- RF Nick Castellanos, PHI (bounce-back candidate)
- LHP Josh Hader, SD (upcoming FA)
- 3B Yoán Moncada, CWS (bounce-back candidate)
- LHP Trevor Rogers, MIA (bounce-back candidate)
- SS Amed Rosario, CLE (upcoming FA)
- LHP Blake Snell, SD (upcoming FA)
- 1B Spencer Torkelson, DET (disappointing debut)
- OF Jesse Winker, MIL (bounce-back candidate)
RF Ronald Acuña Jr., Atlanta Braves
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Ronald Acuña Jr. was enjoying an MVP-caliber year in 2021 when he suffered a season-ending torn ACL on July 10, and it ended up costing him the first 19 games of the 2022 campaign while he continued to shake off the rust.
The 25-year-old avoided any further setbacks once he returned to action, but he was not the same dynamic player who was a legitimate 40/40 threat pre-injury, hitting .266/.351/.413 with 24 doubles, 15 home runs and 50 RBI in 533 plate appearances.
Digging into his batted-ball metrics, his average exit velocity (-2.6 percentage points) and hard-hit rate (-5.1 percentage points) both dipped, while his ground-ball rate spiked (+15.9 percentage points), and he seemed to have trouble elevating the baseball.
Can he return to form another year removed from his injury?
The Atlanta Braves will be counting on it, as he will once again be expected to make a significant impact out of the leadoff spot in the lineup.
CF Cody Bellinger, Chicago Cubs
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From NL MVP winner in 2019 to non-tendered ahead of his final year of arbitration eligibility this offseason, Cody Bellinger has suffered through one of the more dramatic falls from grace in recent memory.
On the strength of an otherworldly first half, Bellinger hit .305/.406/.629 with 34 doubles, 47 home runs, 115 RBI, 121 runs scored, 15 steals and 8.6 WAR in 2019 while also winning a Gold Glove in his first season as an everyday outfielder.
In the three years since, he's batted just .203/.272/.376 for a 74 OPS+ while striking out roughly 25 percent of the time and tallying 1.2 WAR combined in 295 games.
The Chicago Cubs rolled the dice with a one-year, $12.5 million deal that includes a matching mutual option for 2024 with a $5 million buyout, and he will be the team's everyday center fielder as he looks to rebound with a change of scenery.
His terrific outfield defense (34 DRS for his career) gives him positive value even if he doesn't return to form at the plate, but if he wants to secure a multiyear deal next offseason, he will need to show he can at least produce at a league-average clip offensively.
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RHP José Berríos, Toronto Blue Jays
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The Toronto Blue Jays swung a blockbuster deal to acquire José Berríos from the Minnesota Twins at the 2021 trade deadline, and he closed out the season with a 3.52 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 204 strikeouts in 192 innings.
He inked a seven-year, $131 million extension last offseason ahead of his final year of arbitration control, then took the ball on Opening Day for a team with legitimate title aspirations.
The 28-year-old recorded just one out in the season opener, allowing three hits, two walks and four earned runs before exiting. That set the tone for a disappointing season in which he led the AL in hits allowed (199) and earned runs allowed (100) while posting a 5.23 ERA that ranked dead last among 45 qualified starters.
He has six quality starts over his final nine outings, and that coupled with a far more palatable 4.55 FIP provides reason for optimism that he can bounce back in 2023.
RHP Jack Flaherty, St. Louis Cardinals
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Jack Flaherty looked like a budding ace during the second half of the season when he posted a 0.91 ERA, 0.71 WHIP and 124 strikeouts in 99.1 innings while limiting opposing hitters to a .142 batting average.
However, injuries have derailed his ascent to stardom.
The 27-year-old has worked just 154.2 innings over the past three seasons while dealing with a strained oblique and multiple shoulder issues, and he was essentially a non-factor last season when he logged a 4.25 ERA in 36 innings after making just three appearances before the start of September.
With the St. Louis Cardinals expected to lean heavily on the aging duo of Adam Wainwright and Miles Mikolas, a bounce-back season from Flaherty could completely change their outlook.
At the same time, Flaherty is set to reach free agency for the first time next winter, and now that Yu Darvish has re-signed with the San Diego Padres, an already-thin class of quality starts is even thinner. A strong season could mean a huge payday for Flaherty, especially given his age and upside.
LF Joey Gallo, Minnesota Twins
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Do you remember where you were on Sept. 9, 2022?
Joey Gallo probably does, since that was the day MLB announced it would be banning the shift for the upcoming season, potentially freeing up some outfield real estate for a player who has faced the shift more than anyone else in baseball the last several years.
B/R's Zachary Rymer noted in a recent article focusing on the shift ban that since the start of 2017, Gallo has seen 545 defensive alignments with a fourth player in the outfield grass, more than twice as many as Anthony Rizzo (268), who ranks second on that list.
With back-to-back 40-homer seasons early in his career and an impressive 4.2 WAR in 95 games with the Texas Rangers before he was traded to the New York Yankees at the 2021 deadline, Gallo is not far removed from being a legitimate impact player.
Now he's looking to rebuild his stock after a dismal 2022 campaign, and to do so playing on a one-year, $11 million deal with the Minnesota Twins.
RHP Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox
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Lucas Giolito was one of the best pitchers in baseball during the three-year span leading up to the 2022 season.
The 6'6", 245-pound right-hander made 72 starts during that stretch, posting a 3.47 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 526 strikeouts in 427.2 innings while holding opposing hitters to a .206 average. He even tossed a no-hitter during the 2020 campaign.
Those numbers dipped across the board in 2022 when he logged a 4.90 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 177 strikeouts in 161.2 innings, and he now enters a contract year looking to reclaim his status as a front-line starter.
It's easy to cherry-pick stats to fit a narrative, but it's worth mentioning that his numbers were inflated by five truly awful starts where he allowed 34 earned runs in 20.2 innings, and he had a 3.45 ERA in his 25 other appearances.
He allowed more hard contact and had a lower strikeout rate, but he was also the victim of some bad luck with a 4.06 FIP and a .340 BABIP, which should mean some positive regression to come.
A nine-figure payday could still be within reach if he can find more consistency in 2023.
LF Jarred Kelenic, Seattle Mariners
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Jarred Kelenic entered the 2021 season as the No. 4 prospect in all of baseball after hitting .291/.364/.540 with 31 doubles, 23 home runs and 20 steals in 117 games over three minor league levels in 2019, prior to the MiLB season being canceled in 2020.
After a strong spring training and a red-hot start at Triple-A, he made his MLB debut May 13, 2021, but things never quite clicked in his first taste of the majors. He ended up hitting .181/.265/.350 for a 72 OPS+ with 28 extra-base hits and 106 strikeouts in 377 plate appearances.
Last year was even worse; he batted .141 with a 55 OPS+ and 33.7 percent strikeout rate in 54 games, ultimately spending more time at Triple-A Tacoma than he did on the MLB roster.
While he is still only 23 years old, this could be a make-or-break season for him in Seattle. The Mariners have turned a corner on contention and can't afford to give an underperforming player everyday playing time while he tries to make the necessary adjustments.
It's too early to write him off, but the 2023 season is an important one for his career trajectory.
LHP Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox
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Can the Boston Red Sox rely on Chris Sale?
It's a fair question after the once-perennial Cy Young candidate pitched just 48.1 innings over the past three seasons, and that includes what was essentially a lost 2022 season in which he made two appearances.
The Red Sox added Corey Kluber in free agency, and they will also be getting James Paxton back from injury at some point, but if they have any hope of keeping up in a stacked AL East, they need Sale to be the ace of the staff.
He threw two scoreless innings in his spring debut on Monday, and he spoke like a pitcher who has a new outlook on things.
"My intensity is still the same, my work ethic is still the same, but I just try to enjoy doing it more," Sale told reporters.
Time will tell if one of the most dominant pitchers of his generation is still capable of an ace-caliber season.
RHP Luis Severino, New York Yankees
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Luis Severino is the X-factor in the New York Yankees' rotation.
After back-to-back top-10 finishes in AL Cy Young voting in 2017 and 2018, injuries limited him to just 18 innings pitched over the next three seasons, but he returned strong last year to post a 3.18 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 112 strikeouts in 102 innings over 19 starts.
The 29-year-old is entering the final season of a five-year, $52.3 million extension, and if he can stay healthy and pitch up to his potential alongside Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes, the Yankees could have one of the best rotations in baseball.
On the flip side, if he misses time again, the team could be stretched thin on starting pitching, especially with Frankie Montas sidelined indefinitely following shoulder surgery.
Both for the sake of the Yankees' success and his own future outlook as an upcoming free agent, this will be the most important season of Severino's career.
RF Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres
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Fernando Tatis Jr. will spend the first 20 games of the 2023 season watching from the sidelines as he serves the remainder of his 80-game PED suspension.
Once he returns, it will be to a new position in the outfield after the San Diego Padres signed shortstop Xander Bogaerts during the offseason. Not only will Tatis need to shake off the rust at the plate, but he'll also need to cut his teeth at a new spot defensively on the fly.
The last time Tatis took the field, he was putting the finishing touches on a brilliant 2021 season that saw him post a 166 OPS+ with 31 doubles, 42 home runs, 25 steals and 6.6 WAR in 130 games.
If he can return to that level of production hitting alongside Manny Machado, Juan Soto and Bogaerts, the Padres could have one of the best offenses in baseball and make a serious run at the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West.
Off the field, he also has work to do rebuilding trust within the clubhouse and among Padres fans after his 2022 included a motorcycle accident that cost him time early in the season and then his 80-game PED suspension.
Can he rebuild his image as one of the faces of baseball?
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference.
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