Predicting Every MLB Team's 2023 Home Run Leader
There were 23 different players who reached 30 home runs during the 2022 MLB season, led by Aaron Judge, who launched an AL-record 62 home runs while anchoring the New York Yankees lineup.
It wasn't just high-profile stars who put up prolific home run numbers either.
Guys like Christian Walker (36 HR), Rowdy Tellez (35 HR) and Anthony Santander (33 HR) were also prominently featured on the home run leaderboard, though some teams were without a major power threat in the middle of their lineup.
Ahead we've taken a crack at predicting who will lead each team in home runs during the 2023 season, with past production, future projection and a healthy amount of subjectivity all part of the decision-making process.
Enjoy!
American League East
1 of 6
Baltimore Orioles: 1B Ryan Mountcastle
Mountcastle has serious power, evidenced by his 33-homer rookie season in 2021, and a more well-rounded Baltimore roster should help provide him with additional lineup protection. It could be a few years before we see Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson reach their power peak.
Boston Red Sox: 3B Rafael Devers
Devers was the only player in the Boston lineup to hit more than 20 home runs last season, and with Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez gone, he is now the clear-cut top power threat on the team. Outfielder Adam Duvall is just a year removed from a 38-homer season, but he will be looking to rebound from an injury-plagued 2022 campaign.
New York Yankees: RF Aaron Judge
Judge faces an uphill battle trying to duplicate last year's 62-homer, 131-RBI, 10.6-WAR season. As long as he stays healthy—which has not been an issue the past two seasons as he's played in 305 of 324 games—another 40-homer season seems inevitable, and the Yankees will again be leaning heavily on his production in the middle of the order.
Tampa Bay Rays: IF Isaac Paredes
With Ji-Man Choi traded to Pittsburgh, it looks like Paredes will have an everyday spot at one of the corner-infield positions. The 24-year-old tied Randy Arozarena for the team lead with 20 home runs last season, reaching that total in 264 fewer trips to the dish. Now he will have an opportunity to see everyday at-bats for the first time in his career.
Toronto Blue Jays: SS Bo Bichette
With 80 home runs the past two seasons, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. would have been the easy pick here, but Bichette is capable of another step forward in the power department. The 25-year-old hit .406/.444/.662 with seven home runs over the final month of the 2022 season, and his elite batted-ball metrics provide reason to believe his first 30-homer season is right around the corner.
American League Central
2 of 6
Chicago White Sox: DH Eloy Jiménez
In parts of four MLB seasons, Jiménez has posted a 123 OPS+ while averaging 36 home runs per 162 games, but injuries have limited him to 139 games the past two years. The 6'4", 240-pound slugger will enter the 2023 season with a clean bill of health, and if he can stay on the field for the entire year, he has the raw power to be among the AL home run leaders.
Cleveland Guardians: 3B José Ramírez
Newcomer Josh Bell will add some punch to the middle of the Cleveland lineup, but it's still Ramírez who is the team's biggest power threat. The 30-year-old has ranked in the top 10 in AL MVP voting five times in the past six years, including a 39-homer season in 2018 and a 36-homer showing in 2021.
Detroit Tigers: OF Kerry Carpenter
Carpenter launched 30 home runs in 98 games between Double-A and Triple-A last season before making his MLB debut in August. The 25-year-old will see time at designated hitter and the corner-outfield spots, and it's not out of the realm of possibility to think he could out-slug guys like Javier Báez, Austin Meadows, Spencer Torkelson and Eric Haase.
Kansas City Royals: 1B Vinnie Pasquantino
Pasquantino is a popular breakout pick after he logged a 135 OPS+ with 10 home runs and more walks (35) than strikeouts (34) in 72 games as a rookie last season. The 6'4", 245-pound first baseman is still working to fully tap into his power potential, so here is predicting everything clicks in 2023.
Minnesota Twins: LF Joey Gallo
Just a year removed from a 38-homer season and with two 40-homer seasons on his resume, Gallo is looking to rebound from a forgettable 2022 campaign. He signed a one-year, $11 million deal with the Twins during the offseason and will look to parlay that into a lucrative long-term deal with a bounce-back year. He could benefit as much as anyone from the shift being banned.
American League West
3 of 6
Houston Astros: DH Yordan Alvarez
With one of the sweetest swings in baseball and tremendous raw power in his 6'5", 225-pound frame, Alvarez launched 37 home runs last season, despite missing time with hand inflammation. There is 40-homer power in his bat, and he should be a staple among AL home run leaders for years to come.
Los Angeles Angels: CF Mike Trout
Trout became just the fourth player in MLB history to hit 40 home runs in fewer than 120 games last season, marking the third time in his career that he has reached the 40-homer plateau. With a healthy Anthony Rendon and newcomers Hunter Renfroe and Brandon Drury, this could be the best lineup Trout has had around him in his career.
Oakland Athletics: 1B Seth Brown
One of the few bright spots on a 102-loss Oakland team last year, Brown posted a 116 OPS+ while leading the Athletics in home runs (25) and RBI (73). The 30-year-old ranked among the leaders in max exit velocity (88th percentile), barrel rate (90th percentile) and expected slugging (81st percentile) in 2022.
Seattle Mariners: CF Julio Rodríguez
Rodríguez was just the third rookie in MLB history to post a 25-homer, 25-steal debut on his way to AL Rookie of the Year honors last year. The 22-year-old played only 132 games while dealing with some minor injuries, so there is room for his production to grow simply with more playing time. Teoscar Hernández, Cal Raleigh and Eugenio Suárez also have 30-homer potential.
Texas Rangers: 1B Nathaniel Lowe
Lowe was one of baseball's most productive hitters after the All-Star break last year, batting .339/.399/.566 with 15 home runs in 72 games on his way to AL Silver Slugger honors. Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Adolis García all have 30-homer power, but there's a good chance we have not yet seen the best that Lowe has to offer.
National League East
4 of 6
Atlanta Braves: 3B Austin Riley
Young superstar Ronald Acuña Jr. hit just 15 home runs in 533 plate appearances last season in his return from a torn ACL. He'll need to prove his pre-injury power has returned before he can be the pick over Riley, who had 33 home runs during a breakout 2021 season and a career-high 38 long balls last year.
Miami Marlins: CF Jazz Chisholm Jr.
On his way to a potential 30/30 season before suffering a season-ending injury last year, Chisholm is the most potent bat in the Miami lineup. He could get a run from Jorge Soler or Avisaíl García if they can put together bounce-back seasons at the plate, and young outfielder Bryan De La Cruz is also a dark horse for power production.
New York Mets: 1B Pete Alonso
Alonso has been one of the most consistent power hitters in baseball since his record-setting 53-homer rookie season in 2019. His 146 home runs over the past four seasons lead the majors, just ahead of Aaron Judge (137) and Kyle Schwarber (127), and he has been extremely durable throughout his career.
Philadelphia Phillies: 1B Rhys Hoskins
With Bryce Harper set to miss significant time recovering from Tommy John surgery, the easy choice here would be Kyle Schwarber after he launched an NL-leading 43 home runs last season. That said, don't sleep on Hoskins who is coming off the second 30-homer season of his career and entering a contract year that could mean a lucrative payday next winter.
Washington Nationals: DH Joey Meneses
Meneses made his MLB debut as a 30-year-old last year and hit .324/.367/.563 with 13 home runs in 56 games. There is some regression risk in his profile, but he is still a decent bet for 20-25 home runs over a full season of plate appearances. That might be enough to lead a roster that has been stripped to the studs.
National League Central
5 of 6
Chicago Cubs: DH Trey Mancini
The two-year, $14 million deal the Cubs gave Mancini this winter has a chance to be one of the steals of the offseason. The 30-year-old hit just 18 home runs last season while spending most of the year battling the new dimensions at Camden Yards, but he has 30-homer power and could shine playing his home games in Wrigley Field.
Cincinnati Reds: 1B/OF Wil Myers
The Reds found a gem when they plucked Brandon Drury from the scrapheap last offseason, and they're hoping to strike gold again with the one-year, $7.5 million deal they gave Myers this winter. The 32-year-old has averaged 23 home runs per 162 games in his career, and moving to the hitter's paradise that is Great American Ballpark could mean big things.
Milwaukee Brewers: 1B Rowdy Tellez
A burly 6'4", 283-pound slugger, Tellez has thrived since joining the Brewers in a trade prior to the 2021 deadline. He hit just .219 last year, but still posted a 115 OPS+ with 35 home runs to finish fifth in the NL home run race. Newcomers Jesse Winker and William Contreras should also add some pop to the middle of the order.
Pittsburgh Pirates: SS Oneil Cruz
The hardest-hit ball of the 2022 season belonged to Cruz, who ripped a 122.4 mph single off the wall in Pittsburgh. The 24-year-old has some of the loudest raw tools in baseball, including his raw power that saw him tally 17 home runs in 361 plate appearances. He hit 11 home runs over the final two months of the season and could be one of the breakout stars of 2023.
St. Louis Cardinals: 3B Nolan Arenado
Arenado has hit at least 30 home runs in each of the past seven full seasons, excluding the abridged 2020 campaign, and he has proved that he can continue to produce at a high level away from Coors Field. He'll have plenty of competition with Paul Goldschmidt coming off a 35-homer season and top prospect Jordan Walker flashing some of the best power potential in baseball.
National League West
6 of 6
Arizona Diamondbacks: 1B Christian Walker
With Daulton Varsho traded to Toronto during the offseason, Walker is the only player on the D-backs roster who hit more than 14 home runs last season. The 31-year-old posted a 126 OPS+ with 36 home runs during a breakout 2022 campaign, and he is the odds-on favorite to lead the team in power production once again, though there are some up-and-comers on the roster like Jake McCarthy and Corbin Carroll worth watching.
Colorado Rockies: LF Kris Bryant
First baseman C.J. Cron hit just .197 with eight home runs after the All-Star break last year, so we'll go with Bryant who is looking to rebound from an injury-plagued first season of his seven-year, $182 million deal. He hit .306/.376/.475 with 17 extra-base hits in 181 plate appearances last year and looks like a leading candidate for NL Comeback Player of the Year honors.
Los Angeles Dodgers: C Will Smith
Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are the faces of the franchise for the Dodgers, and Max Muncy also has multiple 30-homer seasons under his belt, but let's go with an outside-the-box pick here. Smith has averaged 33 home runs per 162 games in his MLB career, and he could slot into the No. 3 spot in the batting order now that Trea Turner is gone.
San Diego Padres: 3B Manny Machado
Even sidelined for the first 20 games of the season finishing out his PED suspension, Fernando Tatis Jr. could still wind up being San Diego's team leader in home runs, and the Padres will also have Juan Soto for a full season. That said, the safe bet is still Machado, who put together the sixth 30-homer season of his career in 2022.
San Francisco Giants: RF Mitch Haniger
After whiffing on Aaron Judge, the Giants pivoted to Haniger, signing the oft-injured outfielder to a two-year, $28 million deal. He had a 39-homer, 100-RBI season in 2021, but that was sandwiched between a 2020 season spent watching from the sidelines and just 57 games played last year. If he stays healthy, 30 home runs is entirely possible.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference.
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