Fact or Fiction: Making Sense of NFL Head Coach, GM Comments at 2023 Combine
The highlight of the NFL Scouting Combine may well be a showcase for the best and brightest of this year's rookie class, but workouts aren't the only things happening in Indianapolis this week.
Far from it, in fact.
In addition to the workouts, the combine is one of the biggest NFL gatherings of the year. You name 'em, they'll be in Indy. Players. Agents. Coaches. General managers. There will be conversations galore. About free agency, which is just around the corner. About potential draft-day deals. About this, that and the other.
Some of those conversations are public. One of the first orders of business at the combine is press conferences featuring the league's head coaches and general managers. This year was no different, with scores of questions asked about impending free agents, draft strategy and the season to come.
Here's a look at some of what those coaches and general managers had to say and whether those statements could be foreshadowing or were more likely just idle chatter.
Bears "Plan" Is for Justin Fields to Start at QB in 2023
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What was said
Chicago Bears general manager Ryan Poles told reporters that "The plan right now" is for Justin Fields to be the team's starting quarterback in 2023.
FACT
It's worth pointing out that Poles also said that the Bears, who own the first overall pick in the 2023 draft, would "do [their] homework" on this year's top incoming quarterbacks. But he also said that the team would have to be "blown away" by a QB prospect to consider drafting him first overall.
None of this is breaking news—ESPN's Adam Schefter reported earlier this week that the Bears were "leaning toward" shopping the first overall pick. All this does is push that lean a little further.
Granted, the Bears didn't experience much team success last season. If they had, they wouldn't be sitting on the first overall pick to begin with. But Fields was a bright spot in a dark season, flirting with the single-season rushing record for a quarterback. And the struggles Fields did have were arguably as much a result of a shaky offensive line and lack of receiving talent as they were shortcomings in his game.
For all the promise that Fields showed in 2022, it's not difficult to imagine that the first overall pick would land the Bears a larger haul in compensation than a young signal-caller heading into his third season. And while Chicago certainly needs to get the quarterback position right, the Bears are a team with multiple needs on both sides of the ball.
If the Bears truly do believe in Fields, then trading the No. 1 pick is a logical next step.
Broncos RB Javonte Williams "On Track" to Play in Week 1
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What was said
Denver Broncos general manager George Paton indicated that running back Javonte Williams is "on track" to play in the season opener after his 2022 season was cut short by an ACL tear.
FICTION
To be clear, it would be great if Williams could make it back out there for Week 1. But it's not especially likely, and it may not be the best thing for Williams in the long term.
Paton's statement contradicts an earlier report from ESPN's Jeff Legwold (via Dov Kleiman) that Williams could miss multiple weeks to start the season. It's somewhat easier to believe that than Paton's more optimistic assessment. While Paton said that Williams was "jogging," this was not a routine ACL tear—Williams tore multiple ligaments in his knee.
No two injuries are exactly the same, but Baltimore Ravens running back J.K. Dobbins suffered a similar knee injury just before the 2021 season. He missed the ensuing campaign and the first two games of 2022, and after 35 carries over the following month, he wound up undergoing another surgery.
Dobbins returned from that second layoff after six games and looked more like the young bruiser who averaged six yards a carry as a rookie. But his setback should serve as something of a cautionary tale for the Broncos.
Yes, the Broncos badly want to shake off the stink of a wildly disappointing 2022 campaign. But given the seriousness of Williams' injury, rushing him back will likely backfire.
Sam Howell Is Commanders' QB1—but Not the Starter
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What was said
While addressing the media in Indianapolis, Washington Commanders head coach Ron Rivera said that second-year quarterback Sam Howell will begin the offseason as Washington's QB1 but is "not our starter."
FACT
Wait, what?
Here's the full quote from Rivera.
"He's not our starter," Rivera said. "He's coming in as the QB1. He'll get a great opportunity to be our starter. But we do want to find a veteran quarterback. We have Taylor Heinicke that's a free agent. We've got to work through that as well. And we'll see what happens from there."
OK, that actually makes sense.
That Howell enters the offseason as Washington's No. 1 quarterback is undeniable. Carson Wentz was released after one disappointing season in the nation's capital, and Heinicke is a free agent. But while Howell looked decent in his Week 18 start against the Dallas Cowboys last season that was also Howell's only start of his brief career.
Is it possible that the Commanders found a Day 3 gem in Howell? Sure, in that all things are possible. But Washington plays in a division where three teams made the postseason in 2022, and it's far more likely that Howell was a fifth-round pick for a reason.
Whether it's a free agent like Derek Carr or Jimmy Garoppolo or a trade for a veteran like Aaron Rodgers or Lamar Jackson, the Commanders have little recourse but to explore any and every option available under center.
It's either that or essentially punt the 2023 season.
And if the Commanders do that, Rivera's time as a head coach there is probably over.
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Jets QB Zach Wilson Has "High Ceiling"
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What was said
New York Jets general manager Joe Douglas insisted in Indianapolis that the team remains confident in the long-term prospects of quarterback Zach Wilson.
"Our stance on Zach hasn't changed," Douglas said. "Zach has a very high ceiling. ... When players love this game and work their tails off, they usually hit their ceiling. Still feel strongly Zach's going to hit his."
FICTION
Come on, Joe.
Since being drafted second overall in 2021, Wilson has done absolutely zero things to give rise to confidence that he's ever going to live up to that draft slot. Wilson has barely completed 55 percent of his passes, has 15 touchdown passes and 18 interceptions in 22 starts and has a passer rating of just 70.9.
Wilson's five wins in nine starts last year were more in spite of him than because of him, and even then, there were reports that his refusal to accept responsibility publicly for the team's offensive issues rubbed the locker room the wrong way.
If the Jets had any real confidence in Wilson, they wouldn't have hosted Derek Carr on a visit. If the Jets had any real confidence in Carr, the Jets wouldn't continue to be linked to Aaron Rodgers.
Douglas' comments about Wilson are much more likely to be an attempt to generate some sort of trade interest than to be indicative of any real faith that he'll ever be a capable NFL starter.
And it will be a major upset if Wilson starts another game in New York.
Titans QB Ryan Tannehill Not Going Anywhere
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What was said
When asked about quarterback Ryan Tannehill's future with the team, Titans general manager Ron Carthon offered an endorsement of the 34-year-old following an injury-shortened 2022 season.
"He's been a diligent worker, been in the building every day rehabbing and getting his work in," Carthon said. "So, he is under contract, and I am excited about moving forward with him and have a ton of respect for him."
FACT
As ESPN's Turron Davenport pointed out, Tennessee could save quite a bit of money by cutting Tannehill, and there has been speculation that he could be traded this offseason after the Titans fell apart over the second half of last season. But the reality is that neither is especially likely.
The trade market for a quarterback coming off a serious injury with a cap number of $36.6 million in 2023 was never going to be especially robust. Aaron Rodgers would require that much more cash and a boatload of draft capital. Derek Carr is, at best, a marginal upgrade.
Is Tannehill a great quarterback? No. But he's not a bad one, either. In 57 games with the Titans, Tannehill has thrown 89 touchdown passes against just 33 interceptions. His passer rating in Nashville is over 100. And Tannehill is 36-19 as the starter in Tennessee with three trips to the playoffs in four seasons.
The Titans aren't a team without issues on both sides of the ball. But while fans of the team may not be especially excited by Tannehill, the quarterback position isn't close to the top of that list.
Could the Cowboys Draft an RB 27th Overall?
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What was said
While speaking to reporters at the combine, Dallas Cowboys executive vice president Stephen Jones said that the team wasn't philosophically opposed to drafting a running back in Round 1. But Jones qualified that using a high first-rounder at the position would be a different story.
"If you're taking a player in the top half," Jones said, "you're hoping you've got a player who is going to be here for 10 years."
FICTION
With Tony Pollard set to become a free agent and Ezekiel Elliott a potential cap casualty, there has been some scuttlebutt linking the Cowboys to Texas running back Bijan Robinson. And to be fair, that possibility cannot be ruled out if Pollard departs and Elliott is let go.
But that's far from the most likely scenario.
Jones also intimated that Dallas would use the franchise tag this year, and while he didn't specify that it would be used on Pollard, with a tag figure of just over $10 million, he's a prime candidate. Assuming that's the case, there are less expensive ways to complement him if Elliott is sent packing, whether it's with a second-tier free agent or a Day 2 pick. That frees up the 27th pick to address one of the Cowboys' more pressing needs.
Also, Elliott can see the writing on the wall the same as we can—he has to know the market for his services would be soft. That could make him amenable to the sort of pay cut that could keep the Cowboys backfield together another year.
Adding a defensive lineman, cornerback or wide receiver is much more likely on the first day of the 2023 draft than a running back.
Ravens "Optimistic" About Lamar Jackson Extension
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What was said
Baltimore Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta spoke to reporters at the combine, and to the surprise of absolutely no one, the conversation turned to the contract negotiations with star quarterback Lamar Jackson.
"It's an ongoing discussion. We both understand the urgency of the situation. It's been a good dialogue, a good discussion," DeCosta said. "I'm optimistic, and I continue to be optimistic, and we'll see where it goes."
FACT
It's hardly surprising that Jackson's contract is maybe the single biggest storyline of the offseason—MVP quarterbacks don't usually get anywhere near free agency. But it has always been and will continue to be far more likely that Jackson plays in Baltimore in 2023 than anywhere else.
DeCosta made it clear that the Ravens want Jackson back.
"You can't win in this league without a strong quarterback. That's been proven," DeCosta said. "We want Lamar here, we think he's one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and he's certainly one of our best players. We want him back."
The two sides have until March 7 to work out a deal. If they don't, the Ravens are absolutely going to franchise tag him. That tag will most likely be the exclusive rights variety. The Ravens aren't likely to risk losing Jackson for "just" two first-round picks.
At that point, a trade partner would have to be willing to both acquiesce to Jackson's contract demands and offer up a package of compensation so robust that the Ravens couldn't pass it up.
It may be fun to speculate about what's next for Jackson. But the status quo is the runaway favorite.
Cardinals Open to Trading Third Overall Pick
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What was said
Monti Ossenfort hasn't been the general manager of the Arizona Cardinals long, but he told reporters at the combine that he's ready to get his bargain on. That includes potentially moving the third overall pick in the 2023 draft.
"We are prepared to select a player with our pick. That said, our phones will be open for any team that desires to move up. We will listen to offers," Ossenfort said.
FICTION
To be clear, I don't believe it's fiction that the Cardinals are amenable to trading down. Any team in the top five that doesn't need a quarterback should at least consider it, and while it's fair to question whether Kyler Murray really is "the guy," the Redbirds are paying him like he is.
But the top tier of quarterback prospects this season is two players deep: Alabama's Bryce Young and Ohio State's C.J. Stroud. One of that duo will get taken by the Houston Texans at No. 2—you can bet the rent on that.
If the Chicago Bears are serious about trading the first overall pick, then both those signal-callers could be gone when the Cardinals go on the clock. Unless a team falls head over heels for Kentucky's Will Levis or Florida's Anthony Richardson, that could limit Arizona's suitors—and potential compensation.
Frankly, it may be for the best. Arizona could easily have their pick of any non-quarterback in the draft. And an edge-rusher like Alabama's Will Anderson Jr. or Texas Tech's Tyree Wilson would add some badly-needed pop to the Cardinals defense.
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