Final Predictions for the Champions of Every 2023 Men's CBB Conference Tournament
The 2023 men's NCAA tournament doesn't get underway until the 14th of this glorious month, but March Madness begins during the fortnight of conference tournaments commonly known as championship week.
The first round of the Atlantic Sun tournament was played Monday night, and a few other early-round games took place Tuesday and Wednesday. But business is about to pick up on the journey to award 32 automatic bids to the dance.
And I'm here to let you know who will win every one of those tournaments.
OK, not really.
I'm going to give it the ol' college try, for sure. But there were more than 1,300 entrants in last year's "Jerome," and the best of the bunch only correctly predicted the winner of 19 conference tournaments.
Going 32-for-32 might be even more improbable than filling out a perfect NCAA tournament bracket.
With that disclaimer aside, here are the picks.
We'll start with the 17 one-bid leagues and work our way up to the six major conferences—and I promise there is at least one surprise pick among that sextet.
Definite 1-Bid Leagues (Part 1)
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For (at least) 17 of the 32 conferences, it's "auto bid or bust" for everyone, even the No. 1 seeds in those tournaments. These are the most gut-wrenching tournaments and the ones liable to put some team into the Big Dance with a 15-19 overall record. We've broken them into two sections, presented in chronological order of their championship games.
Ohio Valley (8 p.m. ET Saturday on ESPN2): Morehead State
Similar to the West Coast Conference, the Ohio Valley is one of the leagues that gives a major advantage to the teams that finish top-two in the league, giving them a bye all the way to the semifinals. And of the two, Morehead State (21-10 overall) is much better than Tennessee Tech (15-16). The Eagles should get into the dance for the second time in three years. However, watch out for SIU-Edwardsville possibly making a run from the No. 6 seed.
Big South (1 p.m. ET Sunday on ESPN2): UNC-Asheville
The No. 1 seed has won each of the past three Big South tournaments, and UNC-Asheville ran away with the league this year, winning 15 of its final 16 games. Tune in to watch Drew Pember, who has averaged 22.4 points, 9.3 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 1.8 blocks during that 16-game run.
Southern (7 p.m. ET Monday on ESPN): Furman
Furman surged to the No. 1 seed on the final day of the regular season, beating Samford while UNC-Greensboro lost to ETSU. And the Paladins aren't done winning yet. The tandem of Mike Bothwell and Jalen Slawson will carry this program to its first NCAA tournament appearance since 1980.
Sun Belt (7 p.m. ET Monday on ESPN+): Marshall
This should be one of the most entertaining tournaments of the one-bid variety, with six different teams good enough to be a legitimate Cinderella candidate with the league's auto bid. But we're going with Marshall and the backcourt combo of Taevion Kinsey and Andrew Taylor, which averages a combined 42.4 points, 10.2 assists and 3.8 steals per game.
Horizon (7 p.m. ET Tuesday on ESPN): Cleveland State
The Vikings have been inconsistent, but they have arguably the best player in the conference in former Kansas Jayhawk and former Iowa State Cyclone Tristan Enaruna. He has averaged 18.2 points and 6.9 rebounds over his last 18 games. Maybe that will make up for this being one of the worst three-point shooting and defensive rebounding teams in the nation.
Northeast (7 p.m. ET Tuesday on ESPN2): Merrimack
If No. 1 seed Merrimack wins this tournament, the automatic bid will go to the team it defeats in the championship game, as Merrimack is still ineligible for the NCAA tournament in season No. 4 after transitioning into D-I. But how could we not pick Merrimack, which has won eight straight games on the strength of one of the best turnover-forcing defenses in the nation? This is a wide-open field, though, where no one ranks higher than 315th on KenPom.com.
Southland (5 p.m. ET Wednesday on ESPN2): Northwestern State
You might remember the Demons from their November win at TCU, or their spirited efforts in December against both Baylor and Texas A&M. They have an excellent backcourt duo in DeMarcus Sharp and Ja'Monta Black and really should be the best team in the league. However, a sweep at the hands of Texas A&M-Corpus Christi led to the Islanders getting the No. 1 seed. We'll see if Northwestern State can win the one that matters most.
Patriot (7:30 p.m. ET Wednesday on CBS Sports Network): Colgate
Get all your toothpaste jokes out of the way now, because Colgate will be flossing its way to a fourth consecutive NCAA tournament. Per usual, the Raiders are one of the best shooting teams in the nation, and their lone loss in conference play came on a rare afternoon against American in which they went ice cold from the field in the second half. Getting home-court advantage throughout the tournament should be huge.
Big Sky (11:30 p.m. ET Wednesday on ESPN2): Montana State
Eastern Washington started 16-0 in league play, but don't sleep on the Bozeman-based Bobcats, who were ahead of EWU in the KenPom rankings for the majority of the season. Former Washington Husky RaeQuan Battle has become a star, averaging better than 17 points per game.
Definite 1-Bid Leagues (Part 2)
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America East (11 a.m. ET Saturday, March 11, on ESPN2): UMass Lowell
As always seems to be the case, Vermont is surging into the America East tournament, having gone undefeated since mid-January. But UMass Lowell is a solid, veteran team, capable of winning this thing, even though a championship game against Vermont would be a home contest for the Catamounts. (That didn't stop UMBC from knocking off Vermont and then Virginia a few years ago.)
MEAC (1 p.m. ET Saturday, March 11, on ESPN2): North Carolina Central
Norfolk State has been the projected MEAC champion for the entire season. However, North Carolina Central has the best one-two punch in the league in Justin Wright and Brendan Medley-Bacon, the latter of whom is a huge difference-maker in the paint on both ends of the floor with his dunks, rebounds and blocks. The Eagles have been mighty difficult to beat in games where anyone else shows up alongside that duo.
SWAC (5:30 p.m. ET Saturday, March 11, on ESPNU): Grambling State
The Tigers beat both Colorado and Vanderbilt in nonconference play, and they have been the team to beat throughout conference play. In fact, they are one of just two teams (Alcorn State is the other) with an overall record of .500 or better and are capable of thriving in physical games in which defense and free throws determine the outcome.
MAAC (7:30 p.m. ET Saturday, March 11, on ESPNU): Iona
The MAAC tournament champion is rarely the regular-season champion. It has happened just once since 2010, when Iona double-dipped in 2019. So, if and when the Gaels lose, we shan't feign surprise. But they are clearly the best team in the league on both ends of the floor and should be able to ride Nelly Junior Joseph and Daniss Jenkins to another title.
Mid-American (7:30 p.m. ET Saturday, March 11, on ESPN2): Kent State
Toledo has ascended to the top of the standings with 14 consecutive victories, but it still feels like the MAC title runs through Kent State. The Golden Flashes have had a few off nights in league play, thrice losing on the road by double digits. But the team that almost won road games against Houston, Gonzaga and Charleston should find a way to win. We'll see if Malique Jacobs and Sincere Carry can be disruptive enough on defense to make this a dangerous No. 12/13 seed in the dance.
Big West (9:30 p.m. ET Saturday, March 11, on ESPN2): Hawai'i
The Rainbow Warriors have not come particularly close to winning a regular-season or conference-tournament title since getting both in 2015-16, but this is a dangerous team likely headed for the No. 4 or No. 5 seed in the Big West tournament. Hawai'i has put up great numbers on defense throughout the season. It's just a question of whether there will be any offense. Four times this season, this team has lost a game while holding its opponent below 55 points in regulation.
Western Athletic (11:30 p.m. ET Saturday, March 11, on ESPN2): Sam Houston State
If you're an East Coast dweller, you've got to love this annual "Will it end before the clocks spring forward an hour at 2 a.m.?" conference championship. It usually does go to the best team, though, as you have to go back to 2013 to find the last time the WAC tournament champion wasn't also the league's highest-rated team on KenPom. So, even though it looks like Utah Valley is headed for the No. 1 seed, give us the Bearkats of Sam Houston State, which won games at Oklahoma and at Utah in November.
Ivy League (Noon ET Sunday, March 12, on ESPN2): Yale
If defense is the reason we're riding with Grambling State, Kent State, Hawai'i and others, we'd better stay consistent and go with Yale to win the Ivy League. Save for one night at Cornell in which the Big Red could not miss from the perimeter nor from the free-throw line, the Bulldogs have been great on D, anchored by EJ Jarvis in the paint. They also have a quartet of double-digit scorers.
Possible Bid-Thief Events
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While the previous 17 tournaments have no hope of producing an at-large team, these six maybe could if the team with the best resume—not necessarily the No. 1 seed—fails to secure the automatic bid.
Missouri Valley (2 p.m. ET Sunday on CBS Sports Network): Indiana State
In what will be a theme for most of this tier, it's a stretch to say that either Bradley or Drake is worthy of an at-large bid. But with both teams comfortably in the top 85 of all six computer metrics on the selection committee's team sheets, some consideration is merited.
This is Arch Madness we're talking about, though, where a team seeded No. 3 or worse has won three of the past seven tournaments, and where a No. 1 seed losing in the quarterfinals feels about as probable as a No. 1 seed winning it all.
So, sure, we'll take Indiana State, which has a potent offensive attack led by a name that simply needs to be in the NCAA tournament: Courvoisier McCauley.
Atlantic Sun (3 p.m. ET Sunday on ESPN2): Liberty
Kennesaw State got the No. 1 seed, but Liberty is the borderline at-large candidate out of the A-Sun, sitting top-50 in the NET, KenPom and BPI.
The Flames almost certainly need to win the conference tournament, though, which means winning the championship game at Kennesaw State, unless the Owls get upset at home before then.
In the regular-season meeting, Liberty's Darius McGhee scored 43 points, but he got little help while KSU scored pretty much at will down the stretch. It was something of a perfect storm game, though, and Liberty should be able to win the rematch.
Colonial (7 p.m. ET Tuesday on CBS Sports Network): Charleston
Charleston's at-large case is flimsy at best. The Cougars lost at North Carolina in their only Quad 1 game and picked up a pair of Quad 3 losses in conference play. But maybe a 30-4 record would get them in if they happened to lose to Hofstra in the CAA championship game.
Considering Hofstra had to shoot 11-of-22 from three-point range on a night when Charleston went 5-of-31 from distance to pull off that upset during the regular season, though, it shouldn't be a problem.
Charleston is clearly the best team in this conference, reasserting its dominance with a seven-game winning streak to close out the regular season. Former Winthrop coach Pat Kelsey leads another program to the NCAA tournament and subsequently gets a bunch of phone calls from inquiring major conference programs.
Summit League (9 p.m. ET Tuesday on ESPN2): Oral Roberts
Say hello to the only team in the country that ran the table in conference play this season. Not only did Oral Roberts go a perfect 18-0 in Summit League play, but it was also barely even challenged in most of those games, winning 14 of them by at least three possessions.
If Max Abmas, Connor Vanover and Co. were to slip up in the championship game against South Dakota State, it would make for an interesting at-large debate. That would be ORU's only loss outside Quad 1, but it also has no Quad 1 wins and got just one Quad 2 win (vs. Liberty) all season. But the Golden Eagles should take care of business.
Conference USA (8:30 p.m. ET Saturday, March 11, on CBS Sports Network): North Texas
Of the bunch, C-USA is the only league in which a bid thief is definitely in play, provided Florida Atlantic wins its remaining regular-season games against Rice and Louisiana Tech. At No. 18 in the NET with no bad losses and a 5-3 record against the top two quads, the Owls most likely wouldn't get left out of the dance should they falter in Frisco, Texas.
But I like North Texas' chances of pulling off a minor upset. Both regular-season games against FAU went right down to the wire, and the Mean Green will be the team in desperation mode if they meet in the championship game.
Don't sleep on UAB, either. With Jordan Walker, anything is possible.
Atlantic 10 (1 p.m. ET Sunday, March 12, on CBS): Saint Louis
I would have a hard time making an at-large case for VCU or Dayton, but I would have an even harder time saying the A-10 is absolutely locked in as a one-bid league, given its long history of earning multiple bids.
That said, it probably is a one-bid situation, and a veteran-heavy Saint Louis team is our pick to get the job done. The Billikens have had some serious duds since the early victories over Memphis and Providence, but they still have Yuri Collins averaging better than 10 assists per game and a solid interior defense led by former Oregon Duck Francis Okoro.
Multi-Bid Mid-Major Tournaments
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West Coast (9 p.m. ET Tuesday on ESPN): Gonzaga
Even the semifinals of this tournament could be great. No. 3 seed Santa Clara had a better season than anyone ever seemed interested in mentioning at a national level and could give Gonzaga a run for its money.
Meanwhile, No. 4 seed Loyola Marymount already beat No. 1 seed Saint Mary's, which makes things interesting if that matchup happens, or there could be some "BYU takes the WCC title and leaves for the Big 12" potential if the No. 5 seed Cougars upset LMU in the quarters.
But we all know it's probably going to be Round 3 of Saint Mary's and Gonzaga in a battle that could have considerable NCAA tournament-seeding implications.
It's hard to go against the Zags, though, who have won this tournament in nine of the past 10 years. They usually do so as the No. 1 seed, but there's no home-court advantage either way with the whole thing taking place in Las Vegas. Gonzaga won the home game this past weekend and should have won the first matchup in Moraga.
Mountain West (6 p.m. ET Saturday, March 11, on CBS): Utah State
At various points in the season, I would have picked Boise State, Nevada, New Mexico, San Diego State or Utah State to win this tournament. Throw in UNLV as the host team and San Jose State as a most unexpected wild card and this might be the most chaotic slice of championship week.
Let's go with Utah State, though, if only because it would be fun if a team that has spent pretty much the entire season on the bubble ended up going on a tear to secure the auto bid.
The Aggies did get swept by San Diego State, which doesn't bode well for the projected No. 1 vs. No. 4 semifinal pairing. But USU almost won in Logan and somehow kept it respectable in San Diego despite the Aztecs shooting 55 percent from three-point range. They'll bring the noise for Round 3, which everyone will insist they need to win in order to make the NCAA tournament.
American (3:15 p.m. ET Sunday, March 12, on ESPN): Houston
Barring some miraculous run by a team not named Houston or Memphis, the AAC is going to be a two-bid league for the third straight year.
And you can just about take it to the bank that Houston will at least reach the championship game. It has done so in each of the past four AAC tournaments, and this is both the best version of Houston and the worst version of the AAC during that time.
Yes, the Cougars inexplicably lost a home game to Temple, but they will be the heavy favorites at least until the championship game.
If we get a third Houston-Memphis showdown, it should be a great one. Memphis almost won in Houston despite playing without lead guard Kendric Davis, and the rematch in Memphis this Sunday figures to be highly entertaining. But we'll take the Cougars putting the finishing touches on a No. 1 seed for the NCAA tournament.
Atlantic Coast Conference
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When: 8:30 p.m. ET Saturday, March 11, on ESPN
The Pick: Duke Blue Devils
The ACC is an absolute mess.
Miami was starting to emerge as the lone team able to be trusted to some degree, but the 'Canes lost a home game to Florida State this past weekend.
At this point, pretty much any team that we could project to win this title would be met with a "come on, be serious" response.
So why not the Dukies, who seem to be rounding into form at just the right time?
Jeremy Roach is finally looking healthy following a toe issue, and Dereck Lively II is starting to make the type of impact in the paint that was expected of him in the preseason. Kyle Filipowski continues to excel en route to a possible ACC Player of the Year trophy. And if Dariq Whitehead can get back to playing like he did before missing a few games with his second leg injury of the season, the Blue Devils can take this thing.
Duke has really struggled in most of its true road games, but that won't be an issue in Greensboro, North Carolina, which has been a home away from home for the Blue Devils for many years.
I believe they need to win the season finale at North Carolina and have Notre Dame upset Clemson in order to secure a double bye into the quarterfinals. But whether they end up with the No. 4 or No. 5 seed, it's not like a possible showdown with current projected No. 1 seed Pittsburgh in the semifinals is a terrifying proposition.
Big 12 Conference
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When: 6 p.m. ET Saturday, March 11, on ESPN
The Pick: Kansas Jayhawks
Inject every game of this tournament straight into our veins.
Even the opening-round matchups of (based on current standings) No. 7 Oklahoma State vs. No. 10 Oklahoma and No. 8 West Virginia vs. No. 9 Texas Tech should be fascinating theater.
And everything after that will have a "Sweet 16 or better" feel to it, culminating in a possible national championship-caliber title game featuring some two-team combination of Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State and Texas.
With so little separating the best from the rest in this league, just about anything is possible.
But would you really feel comfortable betting against the Kansas Jayhawks?
They have stockpiled 15 Quad 1 wins against the toughest schedule in the nation. They went through a rough patch in mid-January, but their second wind has been a sight to behold, most notably the absurd second-half comeback against Baylor on Feb. 18, which jump-started the notion that Kansas winning back-to-back titles is more than just a possibility.
The one concern we do have is depth. Winning three games in three days with one of the shortest rotations in the nation is a tough ask, especially with Kansas knowing it probably doesn't need to win this tournament in order to lock up a No. 1 seed. We saw Baylor in a similar boat last season, and it laid an egg in its Big 12 quarterfinal.
Still, this Kansas team has been on a rampage, and we see no reason to expect that to stop.
Big East Conference
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When: 6:30 p.m. ET Saturday, March 11, on Fox
The Pick: Villanova Wildcats
Most likely, the Big East will be a five-bid league. And, most likely, one of Connecticut, Creighton, Marquette, Providence or Xavier will secure the conference's automatic bid.
But if you're not buying No. 6 seed Villanova as a threat to steal a bid, you haven't been paying attention.
Veteran lead guard Justin Moore made his season debut Jan. 29, at the beginning of a three-game losing streak to Providence, Marquette and Creighton. However, the Wildcats almost won each of those games, even though Moore was clearly nowhere close to midseason form.
He has played better as of late, scoring 25 in a road win over Xavier, followed by an eight-point, eight-assist, no-turnover performance in the home win over Creighton and a 23-point showing in the win at Seton Hall.
It's not all Moore, of course. Eric Dixon has been an unsung star while we've fixated on Moore and freshman phenom Cam Whitmore. Caleb Daniels is also averaging 14.9 points per game. And Brandon Slater has been a fine glue guy who can take over a game on occasion.
It took much longer than expected, but the Villanova that was supposed to rival Creighton for the Big East crown has arrived. And if the Wildcats can upset Connecticut at home in their regular-season finale Saturday, we won't be the only ones picking this sleeper.
Big Ten Conference
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When: 3:30 p.m. ET Sunday, March 12, on CBS
The Pick: Indiana Hoosiers
The Big Ten tournament will be as wide-open as it gets.
Nos. 2 through 12 in the league standings have been more or less interchangeable all season. And now that No. 1 seed Purdue has fallen on hard times and looks vulnerable for an early upset, we might as well just throw a dart at all teams not named Minnesota.
Who can win away from home, though?
Teams like Maryland, Iowa and Illinois have been mighty potent in their home arenas, but can they get it done on a neutral court?
Throw out anyone who doesn't have at least six wins in road/neutral environments and you're down to Indiana, Michigan State, Northwestern, Purdue and Wisconsin.
We can probably safely rule out the Badgers, who haven't had so much as a two-game winning streak since Jan. 3.
While Purdue does have 11 wins away from home for the year, the Boilermakers have been a mess outside Mackey Arena as of late. Likewise, Michigan State is just 2-6 in its last eight games away from home and had to rally from an early 15-point deficit at Nebraska to get one of those wins.
So, Indiana or Northwestern?
The Wildcats won both head-to-head meetings in dramatic fashion, but it still feels like the Hoosiers are the better overall team, especially with the way freshman point guard Jalen Hood-Schifino has been playing as of late. If the guy who torched Purdue in both of those wins shows up for this tournament, Indiana should emerge victorious.
And if the Hoosiers do make it to the Big Ten championship game, don't be surprised if they end up with a No. 2 seed in the NCAA tournament. Never could have guessed that when they were 10-6 and on the projected bubble in mid-January.
Pac-12 Conference
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When: 10:30 p.m. ET Saturday, March 11, on ESPN
The Pick: UCLA Bruins
In six of the past eight Pac-12 tournaments, it has been the No. 1 seed vs. the No. 2 seed in the championship game. And that feels more inevitable than ever with UCLA and Arizona so far ahead of the Pac's pack as the only surefire NCAA tournament teams in the league.
We certainly could see an upset prior to the finals. And if we do, it would most likely be at Arizona's expense, as the Wildcats have suffered losses to Utah, Washington State, Oregon, Stanford and Arizona State already this season. That makes UCLA the much more enticing pick of the two options.
But even if you could somehow guarantee it will be an Arizona-UCLA title game, the Bruins would still be the pick because of their elite defense.
In the first meeting in Arizona, UCLA held the potent Wildcats offense to 58 points. But because Jaime Jaquez Jr., Tyger Campbell and Jaylen Clark shot a combined 10-of-35 from inside the arc while the entire team shot 20 percent from three-point range, Arizona managed to eke out a low-scoring victory.
While it's reasonable to expect UCLA's defense to have a similar degree of success in this projected championship game, it's unlikely the offense would be that disappointing once again. It was the only time all season that the Bruins were held below 60 points, and it's not like defense or slow-paced games are Arizona's specialty.
So give us the Bruins, and look for the selection committee to give them a No. 1 seed for the Pac-12 regular-season/conference-tournament sweep.
Southeastern Conference
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When: 1 p.m. ET Sunday, March 12, on ESPN
The Pick: Kentucky Wildcats
The home loss to Vanderbilt Wednesday night was yet another not-great misstep by Kentucky, which previously lost at Georgia and at home to South Carolina.
But if they win at Arkansas Saturday afternoon, the Wildcats will secure the No. 3 seed in the SEC tournament, which would be huge.
That means not needing to deal with either Alabama (No. 1 seed) or Tennessee (would likely be the No. 4 seed) until less than 24 hours after they have faced each other, which is quite the luxury for the Wildcats—provided they can beat the No. 2 seed Texas A&M Aggies, of course.
But let's forget about the draw and just focus on a team that was hitting its stride prior to that Vanderbilt hiccup.
Oscar Tshiebwe has been doing his double-double thing for most of the season, and Cason Wallace has pretty regularly been a star, when healthy. But it's the supporting cast of Antonio Reeves, Jacob Toppin and Chris Livingston making a huge difference as of late.
For the first two months of the season, there was no telling whether any member of that trio would show up in a given game. (And when they didn't, Sahvir Wheeler's attempts to take over games by himself only compounded the problem.) But Toppin has become a reliable force at power forward, Reeves is scoring in double figures almost every game, and Livingston has been a crucial, consistent glue guy for the past month.
Who knows if they'll run into this year's version of Saint Peter's again, but Kentucky reasonably could climb all the way up to a No. 3 seed if it wins this tournament.
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