MLB State of the Position 2023: Every Team's 5-Year Plan at First Base
First base is often home to some of MLB's biggest stars. Paul Goldschmidt, Freddie Freeman and Pete Alonso all finished in the top 10 in NL MVP voting last season, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. remains one of the game's biggest young stars in the AL.
There is more young star-caliber talent on the way, led by Triston Casas (No. 25), Tyler Soderstrom (No. 34) and Kyle Manzardo (No. 90), each of whom earned a spot on Bleacher Report's preseason top 100 prospect list.
With that said, some teams are better set up for current and future success at the position than others.
Here, we've broken down each team's present and future outlook at first base, highlighting their current starter and their top prospect, followed by a prediction for who will start for each of the next five seasons.
Included with each top prospect is his tier ranking based on where he slotted in Bleacher Report's 2023 farm system rankings.
Think of it as the team's five-year plan at the position.
Catch up on previous State of the Position articles: Shortstop, Third base
Arizona Diamondbacks
1 of 30
Present: Christian Walker (Age: 31)
Walker enjoyed a breakout 2022 season, posting a 126 OPS+ with 25 doubles, 36 home runs, 94 RBI and 5.1 WAR while winning NL Gold Glove honors at first base. The late-bloomer is controllable for two more seasons, and more of the same this coming year could make him a potential extension candidate.
Future: Ivan Melendez (Tier 3)
Melendez hit .387/.508/.863 with 32 home runs and 94 RBI in 67 games last spring during his junior season at the University of Texas, taking home Golden Spikes honors before going in the second round of the 2022 draft. The right-right, first-base-only profile is always a risky one, but his college numbers are tough to ignore.
Five-Year Prediction: Walker (2023-24), Melendez (2025-27)
Atlanta Braves
2 of 30
Present: Matt Olson (Age: 28)
The Braves inked Olson to an eight-year, $168 million extension after acquiring him from the Oakland Athletics last March, so they have first base locked down for the foreseeable future. He had a 122 OPS+ with 44 doubles, 34 home runs, 103 RBI, 86 runs scored and 3.3 WAR in his Atlanta debut.
Future: David McCabe (Tier 3)
McCabe hit .386/.513/.784 with 16 home runs and 52 RBI in 42 games during his junior season at UNC Charlotte. The Braves took a chance on his small-school production carrying over to the pros when they selected him in the fourth round of the 2022 draft. The 22-year-old will go as far as his bat carries him.
Five-Year Prediction: Olson (2023-27)
Baltimore Orioles
3 of 30
Present: Ryan Mountcastle (Age: 26)
Following a 33-homer rookie season in 2021, Mountcastle continued to provide solid power production with a 105 OPS+ and 22 home runs in 145 games last season. However, his .305 on-base percentage leaves something to be desired. He will need to find a more disciplined approach to take another step forward. The homegrown slugger has club control through the 2026 season.
Future: Max Wagner (Tier 3)
Wagner was one of the most productive college hitters in the country last year with a 1.348 OPS and 27 home runs in 58 games at Clemson University. He has played primarily third base in his career, but with Gunnar Henderson expected to settle in at the hot corner, Wagner's future could be across the diamond at first base if his bat continues to play.
Five-Year Prediction: Mountcastle (2023-25), Wagner (2026-27)
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Boston Red Sox
4 of 30
Present: Bobby Dalbec (Age: 27)
Dalbec posted a 107 OPS+ with 25 home runs in 133 games as a rookie in 2021, but he failed to cement his place as the Boston Red Sox's everyday first baseman last season when he hit .215/.283/.369 with a 33.4 percent strikeout rate. He now enters the 2023 season at a crossroads and is potentially headed for a bench role.
Future: Triston Casas (Tier 1)
After starring for Team USA in the Tokyo Olympics, Casas continued to rake in the upper levels of the minors last year before making his MLB debut as a September call-up. The 23-year-old posted a 113 OPS+ with five home runs and 12 RBI in 95 plate appearances down the stretch, and he'll enter 2023 as one of the AL Rookie of the Year front-runners.
Five-Year Prediction: Casas (2023-27)
Chicago Cubs
5 of 30
Present: Trey Mancini (Age: 30)
The Cubs signed Mancini to a two-year, $14 million deal during the offseason, and they also brought in Eric Hosmer on a one-year, league-minimum deal to compete for playing time at first base and designated hitter this spring. Mancini still has 30-homer power and could wind up being one of the steals of the winter.
Future: Matt Mervis (Tier 2)
Mervis emerged as the Cubs' first baseman of the future in 2022 when he hit .309/.379/.606 with 40 doubles, 36 home runs and 119 RBI in 137 games over three minor league levels. The 24-year-old continued to rake in the Arizona Fall League with a .914 OPS and six home runs in 17 games. He could push his way onto the Opening Day roster by outperforming Hosmer this spring.
Five-Year Prediction: Mancini (2023), Mervis (2024-27)
Chicago White Sox
6 of 30
Present: Andrew Vaughn (Age: 24)
With José Abreu manning first base the past two seasons, Vaughn has been forced to learn how to play the outfield on the fly while also adjusting to MLB pitching. The No. 3 overall pick in the 2019 draft had a 111 OPS+ with 17 home runs and 76 RBI last season, and he is capable of another step forward at the plate. The White Sox have often pursued early extensions with up-and-comers, but Vaughn is controllable through the 2026 season.
Future: Wilfred Veras (Tier 3)
Veras hit .267/.318/.462 with 22 doubles, 20 home runs and 72 RBI in 113 games between Single-A and Double-A last year in his full-season debut. The 20-year-old is Fernando Tatis Jr.'s cousin, and he will go as far as his right-handed bat carries him in the coming years as he looks to tap into his plus raw power.
Five-Year Prediction: Vaughn (2023-27)
Cincinnati Reds
7 of 30
Present: Joey Votto (Age: 39)
Votto is entering the final guaranteed season of a 10-year, $225 million deal, although his contract also carries a $20 million club option with a $7 million buyout for the 2024 season that will be a big decision for the Reds. The future Hall of Famer struggled to an 87 OPS+ during an injury-plagued 2022 season, but he's only one year removed from one of the best seasons of his career.
Future: Christian Encarnacion-Strand (Tier 3)
Encarnacion-Strand hit .304/.368/.587 with 31 doubles, 32 home runs and 114 RBI in 122 games between High-A and Double-A last season. The Minnesota Twins traded him to Cincinnati at midseason in a deal that sent Tyler Mahle the other way. The 23-year-old has played more third base so far, but he fits better across the diamond and could be Votto's replacement.
Five-Year Prediction: Votto (2023), Encarnacion-Strand (2024-27)
Cleveland Guardians
8 of 30
Present: Josh Naylor (Age: 25)
Naylor was one of a handful of players who turned in a breakout season for Cleveland in 2022, posting a 121 OPS+ with 28 doubles, 20 home runs and 79 RBI in 122 games. He is under club control through the 2025 season and should be the team's primary first baseman once again in 2023, though Josh Bell could also see time there when he isn't penciled into the DH spot.
Future: Jhonkensy Noel (Tier 3)
Noel launched 32 home runs last season, but his .229 average and 27.4 percent strikeout rate raise some significant red flags. The Guardians have also used him at third base and the corner outfield spots in hopes of adding some versatility, but he will need to make strides with his hit tool to avoid following in the footsteps of former Cleveland prospect Bobby Bradley.
Five-Year Prediction: Naylor (2023-25), Noel (2026-27)
Colorado Rockies
9 of 30
Present: C.J. Cron (Age: 33)
Cron posted a 107 OPS+ with 29 home runs and 102 RBI last season to earn his first All-Star selection, and he is entering the second season of a two-year, $14.5 million deal. He hit only .197 with a .604 OPS and eight home runs after the All-Star break last year, so he will need to rebound to his first-half levels to hold onto his starting job.
Future: Michael Toglia (Tier 3)
The Rockies used first-round picks on Grant Lavigne (No. 42 overall in 2018) and Toglia (No. 23 overall in 2019), though neither has clearly stepped forward as the first baseman of the future to this point. Toglia had 14 extra-base hits in 120 plate appearances after making his MLB debut on Aug. 30 last year, and he could push Cron for the starting job if Cron doesn't bounce back.
Five-Year Prediction: Cron (2023), Toglia (2024-27)
Detroit Tigers
10 of 30
Present: Spencer Torkelson (Age: 23)
The Tigers will give Torkelson every opportunity to figure things out after taking him No. 1 overall in the 2020 draft. He made the Opening Day roster last season, but he struggled to the point that he was demoted to the minors at the All-Star break. He returned as a September call-up and finished strong when he homered in both ends of a double-header on Oct. 4.
Future: Jace Jung (Tier 1)
Jung is a bat-first prospect who will start his career at second base, but he will likely never be more than an average defender at that position. The No. 12 overall pick in 2022 hit .328/.468/.647 as a three-year starter at Texas Tech, and if Torkelson fails to take a step forward in his development, Jung could be the Tigers' long-term answer at first base.
Five-Year Prediction: Torkelson (2023-27)
Houston Astros
11 of 30
Present: José Abreu (Age: 36)
The Astros ranked 25th in the majors with a .656 OPS from their first basemen last year, which they addressed this offseason by signing Abreu to a three-year, $58.5 million deal. His power production was down with only 15 home runs last season, but he hit .304/.378/.446 with 40 doubles and stellar batted-ball numbers, so he still has plenty left in the tank.
Future: Yainer Díaz (Tier 1)
The Astros have two of the better catching prospects in baseball in Díaz and Korey Lee, and both could win a spot on the Opening Day roster. Lee is the better defender behind the plate, while Díaz has a higher offensive ceiling after hitting .306/.356/.542 with 22 doubles, 25 home runs and 96 RBI in 105 games in the upper minors. He has seen some time at first base already.
Five-Year Prediction: Abreu (2023-25), Díaz (2026-27)
Kansas City Royals
12 of 30
Present: Vinnie Pasquantino (Age: 25)
Pasquantino had a huge season in the minors in 2021, and he continued to impress in his first taste of the big leagues by hitting .295/.383/.450 for a 135 OPS+ with 10 doubles, 10 home runs and 26 RBI in 72 games while tallying more walks (35) than strikeouts (34). He has the potential to be one of the biggest breakout stars of 2023.
Future: Carter Jensen (Tier 3)
Jensen has a 50-hit, 50-power offensive profile, and he showed an advanced approach at the plate in his full-season debut with a 17.1 percent walk rate and .363 on-base percentage. The 19-year-old has a strong arm, but his receiving skills are still a work in progress. Moving him to a less demanding position could help expedite his bat to the majors. That's purely hypothetical, though. All signs point to Pasquantino being the guy for the foreseeable future.
Five-Year Prediction: Pasquantino (2023-27)
Los Angeles Angels
13 of 30
Present: Jared Walsh (Age: 29)
Walsh posted a 127 OPS+ with 29 home runs and 98 RBI during a breakout 2021 season, but he battled through an injury-plagued 2022 campaign. He hit only .215/.269/.374 with 15 home runs in 454 plate appearances before undergoing season-ending thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in early September. He'll now look to bounce back to his pre-injury form. The Angels can control Walsh via arbitration through the 2025 season, at which point they might have to consider shifting an aging Anthony Rendon to a less demanding position.
Future: Kevin Maitan (Tier 3)
A hyped international prospect who was at the center of the Atlanta Braves' international signing scandal, Maitan eventually signed with the Angels, where he has thus far failed to deliver on lofty expectations. The then-22-year-old hit .261/.338/.399 with 20 doubles, 11 home runs and 45 RBI in 114 games at Double-A last season. He is still young enough to have some post-hype potential.
Five-Year Prediction: Walsh (2023-25), Free Agent (2026), Rendon (2027)
Los Angeles Dodgers
14 of 30
Present: Freddie Freeman (Age: 33)
Freeman could be putting the finishing touches on a Hall of Fame career five years from now as he plays out the final season of a six-year, $162 million contract during the 2027 season. The six-time All-Star continued to produce at an elite level in his first year with the Dodgers, hitting .325/.407/.511 for a 152 OPS+ with 199 hits, 47 doubles, 21 home runs, 100 RBI and 117 runs scored in a 5.9-WAR season.
Future: Michael Busch (Tier 1)
Busch was a first baseman and corner outfielder in college before the Dodgers selected him No. 31 overall in the 2019 draft and shifted him to second base. The 25-year-old has handled the new position well, giving him a defensive profile similar to Max Muncy. He has little left to prove in the minors after posting an .881 OPS with 38 doubles, 32 home runs and 108 RBI in 142 games in the upper minors last season. He could ultimately fill a super-utility role in the majors.
Five-Year Prediction: Freeman (2023-27)
Miami Marlins
15 of 30
Present: Garrett Cooper (Age: 32)
With Jesús Aguilar having left in free agency, Cooper should be the Marlins' everyday first baseman in 2023. He led the team in total bases (172) last year while hitting .261/.337/.415 for a 113 OPS+ with 33 doubles, nine home runs and 50 RBI in 119 games. He will be a free agent for the first time next offseason.
Future: Troy Johnston (Tier 3)
Johnston has hit .280/.373/.437 over three minor league seasons since going in the 17th round of the 2019 draft out of Gonzaga. The 25-year-old had a .767 OPS and 40 extra-base hits in 114 games in the upper levels of the minors last year. He could see his first MLB action in 2023.
Five-Year Prediction: Cooper (2023), Johnston (2024-27)
Milwaukee Brewers
16 of 30
Present: Rowdy Tellez (Age: 27)
Tellez gave the Brewers an immediate offensive boost after they acquired him from Toronto midway through the 2021 season. He used that as a jumping-off point for a breakout 2022 campaign where he posted a 115 OPS+ with 35 home runs and 89 RBI. The burly slugger is under club control through the 2024 season.
Future: Zavier Warren (Tier 3)
The Brewers have had 11 different Opening Day starters at first base in 11 years since Prince Fielder left town, so it's fair to wonder who might be next at the position even when Tellez has the spot locked down for the time being. There is no slam dunk answer, though Warren played almost exclusively first base in the Arizona Fall League and posted an .804 OPS with 22 walks in 97 plate appearances.
Five-Year Prediction: Tellez (2023-24), Free Agent (2025-27)
Minnesota Twins
17 of 30
Present: Alex Kirilloff (Age: 25)
Injuries have limited Kirilloff to only 104 games over the past two seasons. As a result, his elite hit tool has not had a chance to fully develop yet. With Miguel Sanó gone and Jose Miranda settling in at third base after Gio Urshela was traded, Kirilloff appears to be the front-runner for the Twins' everyday first base job. He played primarily corner outfield to this point, but moving to first could help finally keep him healthy.
Future: Aaron Sabato (Tier 3)
One of the top power hitters in the 2020 draft class, Sabato was chosen No. 27 overall after launching 25 home runs with a 1.158 OPS in 83 games at North Carolina. The 23-year-old hit 22 home runs in 103 games between High-A and Double-A last year, but he batted only .215 with a 31.8 percent strikeout rate.
Five-Year Prediction: Kirilloff (2023-27)
New York Mets
18 of 30
Present: Pete Alonso (Age: 28)
Alonso ranks fourth all-time with 146 home runs through his first four MLB seasons, one of which was the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. He logged a 146 OPS+ with 40 home runs and an NL-leading 131 RBI to finish eighth in NL MVP voting last season. The Mets could look to start talking with Alonso about an extension soon with free agency looming after the 2024 season.
Future: Mark Vientos (Tier 2)
Vientos hit .280/.358/.519 with 24 home runs and 72 RBI in 101 games at Triple-A Syracuse last season. While he has little left to prove in the minors, he also does not have a clear defensive home. He has played mostly third base while also seeing some time at first base and at the corner outfield spots. Vientos could fill a spot on the Mets' bench in 2023.
Five-Year Prediction: Alonso (2023-27)
New York Yankees
19 of 30
Present: Anthony Rizzo (Age: 33)
The Yankees re-signed Rizzo to a two-year, $40 million deal after he rejected a qualifying offer in mid-November. His new contract contains a $17 million salary in 2023 and 2024 followed by a $17 million club option and $6 million buyout in 2025. With a 131 OPS+ and 32 home runs last season, Rizzo is showing no signs of slowing down.
Future: Spencer Jones (Tier 2)
Jones hit .370/.460/.644 with 12 home runs and 60 RBI in 61 games at Vanderbilt last spring, and the Yankees took the 6'7" slugger with the No. 25 overall pick in the 2022 draft. He hit .344/.425/.538 with 10 extra-base hits in 25 games after signing, and while he played mostly outfield in college, he also saw sporadic action at first base. That could be his future home.
Five-Year Prediction: Rizzo (2023-25), Jones (2026-27)
Oakland Athletics
20 of 30
Present: Seth Brown (Age: 30)
Brown led the Athletics in home runs (25) and RBI (73) while posting a 116 OPS+ in his second full season in the majors. He quietly raised his walk rate from 7.5 to 9.2 percent, and he also played more than 100 innings at all three spots in the outfield. Jesús Aguilar was signed to a one-year, $3 million deal to serve as the team's primary designated hitter, but he could also see some time at first base.
Future: Tyler Soderstrom (Tier 1)
One of the best pure hitters to come out of the high school ranks in years, Soderstrom began his pro career as a catcher, but he started to see regular time at first base in 2022 as the A's look to expedite his bat to the big leagues. The 21-year-old logged an .825 OPS with 21 doubles, 29 home runs and 105 RBI across three minor league levels last year, closing out the season with nine games at Triple-A.
Five-Year Prediction: Brown (2023), Soderstrom (2024-27)
Philadelphia Phillies
21 of 30
Present: Rhys Hoskins (Age: 29)
Hoskins has been a steady contributor for the Phillies since he exploded onto the scene with 18 home runs in 50 games as a rookie in 2017. He posted a 122 OPS+ with 33 doubles, 30 home runs and a career-high 2.9 WAR last season, and he will be one of the top power bats on the free-agent market next offseason.
If the Phillies let him walk, Darick Hall would be the leading in-house candidate to replace him after logging a 121 OPS+ in 142 plate appearances as a rookie.
Future: Jordan Viars (Tier 3)
Viars was a third-round pick out of high school in 2021, and there is significant power potential in his 6'4", 215-pound frame. The 19-year-old hit just .236/.324/.315 with two home runs and 23 RBI in 207 plate appearances between rookie ball and Single-A last season, and while it could take him some time to reach his full potential, he is an under-the-radar name to know in the Philadelphia system.
Five-Year Prediction: Hoskins (2023), Hall (2024-27)
Pittsburgh Pirates
22 of 30
Present: Ji-Man Choi (Age: 31)
The Pirates acquired Choi in a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays in November, and he has posted a 116 OPS+ with 31 doubles, 20 home runs and 78 RBI per 162 games over the past four seasons. He will be the team's primary first baseman, while fellow veteran pickup Carlos Santana could also see time at the position when someone else is penciled into the DH spot for a rest. Both players will be free agents next offseason.
Future: Malcom Nunez (Tier 3)
Nunez was acquired in the deal that sent José Quintana to the St. Louis Cardinals at the trade deadline, and he has shown some intriguing offensive upside during his time in the minors. The 21-year-old hit .262/.367/.466 with 23 home runs and 88 RBI in the upper levels of the minors last season, and he should get a long look for a spot on the Opening Day roster this spring.
Mason Martin is also a name worth knowing as he's slugged 104 home runs in five minor league seasons, including a 35-homer, 129-RBI performance in 2019.
Five-Year Prediction: Choi (2023), Nunez (2024-27)
San Diego Padres
23 of 30
Present: Jake Cronenworth (Age: 29)
The addition of shortstop Xander Bogaerts and the departure of both Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers means that Ha-Seong Kim will shift to second base, and Cronenworth will settle in as the everyday first baseman going forward. The two-time All-Star has a 118 OPS+ and 10.5 WAR since making his MLB debut in 2020, and he has played 322 innings at first base. He is controllable through the 2025 season and could be an extension candidate.
Future: Nathan Martorella (Tier 3)
Martorella hit .333/.424/.553 with 15 doubles, 11 home runs and 46 RBI in 55 games during his junior season at the University of California, and he logged a .932 OPS with 11 extra-base hits in 28 games after signing as a fifth-round pick. The 22-year-old has a power-over-contact approach, and he will go as far as his bat carries him.
Five-Year Prediction: Cronenworth (2023-25), Martorella (2026-27)
San Francisco Giants
24 of 30
Present: LaMonte Wade Jr. (Age: 29)
After 12 seasons with the Giants, Brandon Belt signed a one-year, $9.3 million deal with the Toronto Blue Jays during the offseason. That leaves some combination of LaMonte Wade Jr., J.D. Davis, Wilmer Flores and David Villar to handle the position in 2023, with Davis, Flores and Villar also expected to handle third base.
Future: Luis Toribio (Tier 3)
Toribio continued to show playable power in a full season at High-A last year, posting a .738 OPS with 21 home runs in 111 games. The 22-year-old began his career as a third baseman, but he saw more time at first base in 2022, and that is a better fit long-term. His future role will hinge on whether he can improve on a .209 average and a 35.2 percent strikeout rate.
Five-Year Prediction: Wade (2023), Free Agent (2024-27)
Seattle Mariners
25 of 30
Present: Ty France (Age: 28)
France built off a breakout 2021 season by earning his first All-Star selection last year when he posted a 125 OPS+ with 20 home runs, 83 RBI and 3.1 WAR. Despite his age, he is still controllable through the 2025 season.
Evan White also still has three guaranteed seasons remaining on the six-year, $24 million extension he signed before making his MLB debut in 2020. After a pair of injury-plagued seasons he'll compete for a roster spot this spring.
Future: Robert Perez Jr. (Tier 3)
Perez hit .288/.398/.523 with 24 doubles, 27 home runs and 114 RBI in 127 games between Single-A and High-A, and he held his own against a much higher level of competition in the Arizona Fall League. The 22-year-old will need to keep hitting to carve out an MLB role, but he has put himself on the prospect radar.
Five-Year Prediction: France (2023-25), Perez Jr. (2026-27)
St. Louis Cardinals
26 of 30
Present: Paul Goldschmidt (Age: 35)
Goldschmidt added NL MVP honors to his illustrious resume last season when he hit .317/.404/.578 for an NL-leading 180 OPS+ with 41 doubles, 35 home runs and 115 RBI in a 7.8-WAR season. He has two years and $52 million remaining on his current contract before he becomes a free agent ahead of his age-37 season. Will the Cardinals tack on a few more years with an extension?
Future: Alec Burleson (Tier 1)
With a crowded outfield picture, Burleson's future could be at first base, where he saw time in the minors and appeared in six games as a rookie in 2022. The 24-year-old hit .331/.372/.532 with 25 doubles, 20 home runs and 87 RBI in 109 games at Triple-A last season before he was promoted, and he'll compete for an Opening Day roster spot.
Five-Year Prediction: Goldschmidt (2023-24), Burleson (2025-27)
Tampa Bay Rays
27 of 30
Present: Yandy Díaz (Age: 31)
Díaz posted a 143 OPS+ with 42 extra-base hits, 3.5 WAR and more walks (78) than strikeouts (60) during a breakout 2022 season. After splitting his time between first base and third base the past few seasons, he should settle in as the primary first baseman after Ji-Man Choi was traded to Pittsburgh. The Rays inked him to a three-year, $24 million extension with a $12 million club option for 2026 in January.
Future: Kyle Manzardo (Tier 1)
Manzardo hit .327/.426/.617 with 26 doubles, 22 home runs and 81 RBI in 93 games between High-A and Double-A last season. He has played just 30 games above the High-A level but could be a factor on the MLB roster in 2023.
Five-Year Prediction: Díaz (2023-26), Manzardo (2027)
Texas Rangers
28 of 30
Present: Nathaniel Lowe (Age: 27)
Lowe hit .302/.358/.492 for a 141 OPS+ with 26 doubles, 27 home runs and 3.3 WAR last season to win AL Silver Slugger honors. His breakout season ended on a high note as he hit .339/.399/.566 with 15 home runs in 72 games after the All-Star break. He is controllable through the 2026 season but could be an extension candidate before that time comes.
Future: Dustin Harris (Tier 3)
Harris was acquired from Oakland in exchange for Mike Minor in 2020, and after a breakout 2021 season, he showed well against Double-A pitching last season with an .817 OPS and 17 home runs in 85 games. The 23-year-old has also seen time in left field, and that could be his future home if Lowe continues to be a staple at first base.
Five-Year Prediction: Lowe (2023-27)
Toronto Blue Jays
29 of 30
Present: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Age: 23)
Will the Blue Jays come to terms on an extension with Guerrero Jr. in the coming years? The young slugger is controllable through the 2025 season, and while he failed to match his 2021 AL MVP runner-up numbers, he still finished with a 132 OPS+ and 32 long balls at an age when many players are still in the minors. Veteran Brandon Belt will also be an option at first base after signing a one-year deal in free agency.
Future: Spencer Horwitz (Tier 3)
Horwitz has had a significant upward trajectory since going in the 24th round of the 2019 draft. The 25-year-old hit .275/.391/.452 with 33 doubles, 12 home runs and 51 RBI in 114 games between Double-A and Triple-A last year, and he could earn a bench role on the Opening Day roster.
Five-Year Prediction: Guerrero (2023-27)
Washington Nationals
30 of 30
Present: Dominic Smith (Age: 27)
Once a top prospect in the New York Mets system and a breakout performer in 2020, Smith signed a one-year, $2 million contract with the Nationals as a reclamation project after he was non-tendered. He hit just .194 with a 62 OPS+ in 152 plate appearances last year but will be given every chance to prove himself on a rebuilding club.
Late-bloomer Joey Meneses split his time between first base and the outfield down the stretch last year, and he could be a fallback option if Smith continues to struggle.
Future: Drew Mendoza (Tier 3)
Mendoza was a standout performer as a three-year starter at Florida State, and he posted solid numbers in his pro debut at Single-A in 2019. The 25-year-old has scuffled the past two seasons against better pitching, but he still has a decent offensive ceiling if everything clicks with more development time.
Five-Year Prediction: Smith (2023), Meneses (2024-27)
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