Who Will Be MLB's Best Offensive Player in 2023?
Come the end of the 2022 Major League Baseball season, Aaron Judge's 62 home runs and numerous other league-leading figures made it decidedly unnecessary to question which hitter had the best year.
Well, now it's a new year. Will Judge once again be MLB's top offensive player in 2023? Or will the mantle pass to someone else?
Now is a good time to line up the top candidates to be in consideration for the league's best on the offensive side. We've made cases for and against 10 of them, considering what they'll do not only in the batter's box, but on the bases as well.
There is, of course, a twist in such discussions this year. Courtesy of new rules that place regulations on defensive shifts and are likely to spur an increase in stolen bases by way of bigger bases, limits on pick-offs and a pitch timer, some players have more areas to make gains than others.
Let's hit on some honorable mentions before moving on to the top 10.
Honorable Mentions
1 of 11
2B Jose Altuve, Houston Astros
Age: 32
2022 Stats: 141 G, 604 PA, 28 HR, 18 SB, .300 AVG, .387 OBP, .533 SLG
Altuve may have gone anechoic chamber levels of quiet in last year's playoffs, but before that he had enjoyed his best regular season since his MVP-winning campaign in 2017. He does turn 33 on May 6, however, and it likewise sets off alarm bells that he ranked in the sixth percentile for exit velocity last season.
SS Wander Franco, Tampa Bay Rays
Age: 21
2022 Stats: 83 G, 344 PA, 6 HR, 8 SB, .277 AVG, .328 OBP, .417 SLG
Injuries largely ruined Franco's 2022 season, but one can still be sky-high on the guy. A good indicator of his ceiling is an 83-game stretch between July 16, 2021 and May 9, 2022 in which he struck out only 34 times, hit .320 and slugged .509. And that's not even counting when he went 7-for-19 with two home runs and two doubles in the 2021 playoffs.
1B Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals
Age: 35
2022 Stats: 151 G, 651 PA, 35 HR, 7 SB, .317 AVG, .404 OBP, .578 SLG
Goldschmidt was only the MVP of the National League last year, so this is probably where we're going to lose some people. But he will be 36 years old before this season is over, and there is some evidence to suggest that he benefited more from luck than any other everyday hitter last season. So, kindly put those tomatoes away.
3B Manny Machado, San Diego Padres
Age: 30
2022 Stats: 150 G, 644 PA, 32 HR, 9 SB, .298 AVG, .366 OBP, .531 SLG
There (probably) go still more people, as Machado was good enough last year to siphon seven first-place votes away from Goldschmidt in last year's NL MVP voting. But he's another "hmmm, maybe a little lucky" kind of guy, though even curmudgeons like us can grant that he's going to be extra motivated this year with that opt-out in his contract looming.
3B José Ramírez, Cleveland Guardians
Age: 30
2022 Stats: 157 G, 685 PA, 29 HR, 20 SB, .280 AVG, .355 OBP, .514 SLG
Ramírez has been a sure thing for roughly 30 homers and 20 steals over the last six years, and he can now look forward to benefiting from both the speed-friendly changes and the ban on shifts, which he eventually got to see over 90 percent of the time when batting lefty. In other words: yeah, we might be underestimating him.
RF Kyle Tucker, Houston Astros
Age: 26
2022 Stats: 150 G, 609 PA, 30 HR, 25 SB, .257 AVG, .330 OBP, .478 SLG
Here's your sleeper. Tucker has shown steady power in hitting 30 home runs in each of the last two seasons, and his average is due for a boost courtesy of the shift ban. As he was 25-for-29 in stolen bases despite an average sprint that was only in the 32nd percentile, he's also proved that he doesn't need great speed to be a great base stealer.
RF Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres
Age: 24
2022 Stats: Did Not Play
Remember when Tatis put up a .293/.369/.596 slash line, 81 home runs and 52 stolen bases through his first 273 games? Those were good, exciting times. But let's see him keep it up after a performance-enhancing drug suspension, one shoulder surgery and two wrist surgeries, much less amid a transition from shortstop to the outfield.
10. 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
2 of 11
Age: 23
2022 Stats: 160 G, 706 PA, 32 HR, 8 SB, .274 AVG, .339 OBP, .480 SLG
The Case for Him
The projections for 2023 love Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and, honestly, why wouldn't they?
His most generous outlook comes courtesy of Steamer, which has him pegged to club 40 home runs with a 162 wRC+. If those numbers sound familiar, it's because the Blue Jays slugger pretty much achieved them in real life back in 2021, when he put up a 166 wRC+ and 48 home runs to earn a second-place finish in the American League MVP voting.
Regression did find Guerrero last season, but perhaps more than it should have. Even if the quality of his contact didn't quite measure up to what he did in 2021, he still placed in the 94th percentile for his hard-hit rate and in the 96th percentile for exit velocity.
The Case Against Him
Ah, but much of the good contact that Guerrero made last year went to waste, as his ground-ball rate shot from to 52.1 percent from 44.8 the year before. And relative to his whole career, it's the latter that looks like the outlier.
That's not ideal, and neither are the implications of Guerrero's performance against sliders last year. They accounted for 25.6 percent of all the pitches he saw, and his run value against them was below average. There's your scouting report, opposing pitchers.
9. 1B Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers
3 of 11
Age: 33
2022 Stats: 159 G, 708 PA, 21 HR, 13 SB, .325 AVG, .407 OBP, .511 SLG
The Case for Him
Freddie Freeman's baseline offensive performance is bonkers. Since 2013, his wRC+ has gone no lower than 132.
Such a run is only possible if you're a well-rounded hitter, and that description fits Freeman to a T. His peripherals from last year tell the story, as he was in the 90th percentile with his strikeout and walk rates and the 88th percentile for exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
Now Freeman doesn't even have the shift to worry about anymore. Even if he was "only" shifted on 51.6 percent of the time in 2022, it cost him on well-struck balls like this one, this one and this one. Those should be hits in 2023, and he might even swipe more bags after going a career-best 13-for-16 last year.
The Case Against Him
Then again, will Freeman really benefit all that much from the shift ban? It's a fair question given how often he went against the shift, and he tended to do so by simply flicking his bat at the ball to produce a cheap hit.
8. SS Trea Turner, Philadelphia Phillies
4 of 11
Age: 29
2022 Stats: 160 G, 708 PA, 21 HR, 27 SB, .298 AVG, .343 OBP, .466 SLG
The Case for Him
Trea Turner was a star in 2018 and 2019 even before going full superstar over the last three seasons, ultimately hitting .316 with 162-game averages of 27 home runs and 31 stolen bases.
This, of course, was without any help from the new speed-friendly rules. Turner is arguably at the top of the list of the players who stand to benefit from those rules. Add up his steals and infield hits, and he gained a league-high 60 bases on speed alone last season.
Turner should also be in for a power boost in 2023. He's swapping out Dodger Stadium for a notorious launching pad in Citizens Bank Park, and it's not hard to find examples (i.e., here, here and here) from last season where that would have made a difference.
The Case Against Him
Speed and power are all well and good—seriously, not even being facetious—but how much will Turner be able to get out of such things if his approach isn't in better working order?
That aspect of his game was weirdly lacking last year, as his chase rate plummeted into the 22nd percentile and took his swing-and-miss rate (39th percentile) with it. In what seems like a related story, he saw breaking balls a career-high 36.9 percent of the time. Like with Guerrero, there's your scouting report, pitchers.
7. DH Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels
5 of 11
Age: 28
2022 Stats: 157 G, 666 PA, 34 HR, 11 SB, .273 AVG, .356 OBP, .519 SLG
The Case for Him
Here's a complete list of players with at least a 140 wRC+, 80 home runs and 30 stolen bases over the last two seasons:
- Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels: 146 wRC+, 80 HR, 37 SB
That's it. That's the list. And it ought to make the opposition shudder to think what Ohtani might be capable of without shifts and with the new speed-friendly rules.
Ohtani was shifted on 88 percent of the time last season, resulting in outs on hard smashes like you see here and here. As for what he might do with his speed, more infield hits seem as likely as more stolen bases. In addition to all his other talents, Ohtani is the league's fastest runner from home to first.
The Case Against Him
As amazing as it's been to watch Ohtani do his Bullet Rogan thing over the last two seasons, fears for his safety have never been far from our minds. He's been involved in 2,498 batter-pitcher matchups, which is simply a lot of [waves hands] exposure.
Even setting the fear of injury aside, there's at least one sore spot in Ohtani's offensive game. That's his propensity to swing and miss, as even improvements there last year only pushed him into the 26th percentile for whiff rate and the 30th percentile for strikeout rate.
6. RF Ronald Acuña Jr., Atlanta
6 of 11
Age: 25
2022 Stats: 119 G, 533 PA, 15 HR, 29 SB, .266 AVG, .351 OBP, .413 SLG
The Case for Him
In 2022, Ronald Acuña Jr. wasn't exactly in vintage form worthy of his Rookie of the Year-winning turn in 2018 or his near-MVP-winning turn in 2019, wherein he fell just three stolen bases shy of MLB's fifth ever 40/40 season. But, well, can you really blame him?
Acuña took less than a year to return from a torn ACL, which, while admirable, did show. Neither his exit velocity nor his sprint speed was up to previously established pars, while his 76th-percentile chase rate smacked of rust. Judging from his zero run value against four-seamers, even his bat speed was off.
But that was then. This is now, wherein Acuña says he's fully healthy for the first time in two years and "beyond excited and happy" for the coming season.
The Case Against Him
Acuña hasn't made it through a full season since 2019, so he's an unknown if nothing else. And then there's the possibility that the downturns in his power, speed and zone discipline that he experienced last year will prove to be more permanent than expected.
Even if Acuña does dial the clock back to 2019, his offensive resume would still have holes in it. As he only logged 22 doubles and two triples to go with the 41 homers he hit that year, it was secretly a pretty bad power-hitting season by 40-plus homer standards.
5. CF Julio Rodríguez, Seattle Mariners
7 of 11
Age: 22
2022 Stats: 132 G, 560 PA, 28 HR, 25 SB, .284 AVG, .345 OBP, .509 SLG
The Case for Him
It took a little while for Julio Rodríguez to get going last season. But once he finally got his first major league home run out of the way on May 1, he proceeded to hit .297 with 28 homers and 16 steals over his next 112 games.
What's more, J-Rod finished the year with peripheral metrics that further underscored his status as MLB's newest power-speed nightmare. He placed in the 98th percentile for sprint speed and in the 95th percentile for hard-hit rate.
It makes sense, then, that the projection systems generally see Rodríguez as a candidate for a 30/30 season in 2023. As the new speed-friendly rules figure to boost his stolen base total, he might only need to push his strikeout rate lower than 25.9 percent to chase 40/40.
The Case Against Him
There's a key reason Rodríguez struck out that often in 2022, and it's because he really liked to swing the bat. Ultimately, he offered at slightly more than half the pitches he saw.
A swing rate that high isn't necessarily a death sentence for a player's offensive upside, but it generally doesn't help. To wit, of the 100 best offensive seasons since 2002 as measured by wRC+, only seven were achieved with a swing rate over 50 percent.
4. CF Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
8 of 11
Age: 31
2022 Stats: 119 G, 499 PA, 40 HR, 1 SB, .283 AVG, .369 OBP, .630 SLG
The Case for Him
Not that anyone doubts Mike Trout's greatness at this point, but let's dig into a couple of fun facts about him anyway:
- Only he and Ty Cobb have ever had as many as 11 seasons with a wRC+ over 160 through the age of 30.
- Only two players have ever hit 40 home runs in fewer games than Trout did in 2022.
Guy's good, in other words. And if he's going to be better in at least one way this year, chances are it will involve his stolen base total.
Stealing bases hasn't been a big part of his game in recent years, but that's not for lack of elite sprint speed. The bigger bags, pitch clock and limits on throws over may be just the excuse he needs to put his to work again.
The Case Against Him
Alas, Trout was an easier out last year than at any point since his 2012 breakout. That's clear enough just from his .369 OBP, and his 17th-percentile whiff rate and 12th-percentile strikeout rate only make it clearer.
Otherwise, it's no big secret that Trout has been banged up for much of the last two seasons, nor that he has a back condition that's going to be a fact of life for the rest of his career. Even if it doesn't take him off the field in 2023, it may prove the assumption that he'll steal more bases to be a faulty one.
3. LF Juan Soto, San Diego Padres
9 of 11
Age: 24
2022 Stats: 153 G, 664 PA, 27 HR, 6 SB, .242 AVG, .401 OBP, .452 SLG
The Case for Him
Juan Soto had a down year in 2022, and he still had the fifth-best wRC+ of any National League hitter. So, yeah, rumors of his demise and all.
One could point to Soto's higher-than-you'd-like ground-ball rate as something that needs fixing, but it's less of a pressing issue now thanks to the shift ban. Albeit not as much as the Kyle Schwarbers and Matt Olsons of the world, he figures to benefit from the ban after getting shifted on a career-high 57.5 percent of the time in 2022.
This is otherwise a "no notes" situation. This is one of the best young hitters in MLB history we're talking about. And if the shift ban doesn't get Soto's numbers back up in 2023, not having to worry about his trade status this time around could do the trick.
The Case Against Him
Let's circle back on the possibility of the shift ban doing nothing to help Soto this year. It's more plausible than one might think, and not just because he didn't get shifted as much as other left-handed sluggers last year. Instances of him hitting into the shift were actually rare.
Otherwise, Soto is more bat-only than bat-first at this point. He showed some decent wheels in swiping 12 bags in 13 tries back in 2019, but he's 21-for-32 since then with lesser raw sprint speed to boot.
2. DH/LF Yordan Álvarez, Houston Astros
10 of 11
Age: 25
2022 Stats: 135 G, 561 PA, 37 HR, 1 SB, .306 AVG, .406 OBP, .613 SLG
The Case for Him
Is Yordan Álvarez the best hitter in baseball? Because he sure seems like the best hitter in baseball.
He comes close enough to earning that distinction just on his results, as his 164 wRC+ across the last four seasons checks in as second-best behind only Aaron Judge among hitters who've taken at least 1,500 plate appearances. And based on their peripherals, the two sluggers deserved to have basically the same rate stats last season.
Going forward, where Álvarez figures to benefit while Judge does not is from the shift ban. He was shifted on 88.3 percent of the time in 2022 and it cost him potentially upwards of a dozen hits. He doesn't have to worry about that anymore, so it should surprise nobody if he makes a run at his first batting title in 2023.
The Case Against Him
If nothing else, you can pretty much count on Álvarez spending at least one stint on the injured list this season. He's no stranger to the IL, having missed almost all of 2020 with knee injuries and a decent chunk of 2022 with a sore left hand.
Otherwise, Álvarez's offensive upside is limited by the fact that he's purely a bat-only player. He's not terrible at utilizing what speed he has, but even bigger bases aren't exactly going to make him the next coming of Rickey Henderson.
1. RF Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
11 of 11
Age: 30
2022 Stats: 157 G, 696 PA, 62 HR, 16 SB, .311 AVG, .425 OBP, .686 SLG
The Case for Him
Well, jeepers, just look at the numbers that Aaron Judge posted last year. And that's just a mere fraction of them, as his name appears a whopping 23 times on Baseball Reference's page for last season's batting leaders.
OK, fine. Judge almost certainly isn't going to hit 62 home runs again. History provides some insight there, as all eight 60-homer seasons before his were immediately followed by regressions the year after. And by an average of 16 home runs, at that.
Subtract 16 homers from Judge's 2022 total, however, and you still get 46. That's as many as Kyle Schwarber hit to finish as last year's runner-up. It's also exactly as many as ZiPS projects him for in 2023. And in light of what he did last year and the new rules, his projection of nine stolen bases is likely selling him short.
The Case Against Him
Judge did run out of gas at the end of last season, going 10-for-41 in 14 games to round out the regular season and then 5-for-36 in the playoffs. Further, his proneness to injuries makes his looming 31st birthday on April 26 look vaguely like an ominous event.
This is really all we've got, however. Even a lesser Judge in 2023 still figures to be a speedier version of Trout, Soto and Álvarez, which renders little more to ask for.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
.jpg?w=600 "Mahomes Pitch Resurfaces 😅")
