Account
Every NBA Team's Biggest Flight Risk This Offseason
February 21, 2023Every NBA Team's Biggest Flight Risk This Offseason
In the NBA roster-building game, the only thing harder than acquiring talent is keeping it. That'll become clear as we run down every team's biggest flight risk this offseason.
We'll make that designation by gauging how likely it is that a player will leave his current team while also considering how significant the impact of his departure would be.
Otherwise, a 14th man without a guaranteed contract for next year would rate as every team's biggest flight risk, which a) doesn't make for much interesting discussion and b) fails to account for the risk element. If a team won't really miss the player in question, is there really any "risk" involved?
We all know most of the league's top-tier talents won't be going anywhere, but we'll skew toward bigger names whenever there's a logical case or reporting that says they might be on the move. If you thought the trade deadline put an end to speculation season, think again. It's already time to game out which players could be on the move in July.
Atlanta Hawks: Bogdan Bogdanović
Depending on how you feel about the current state of the Play-In-bound Atlanta Hawks, it's either encouraging or terrifying that they're pretty much locked into the same roster next season. Nine of their 10 highest-paid players are under team control for 2023-24, with backup combo guard Bogdan Bogdanović standing out as the only exception.
The 30-year-old has an $18 million player option for next year. Struggling again with injury this season, Bogdanović could have reason to take the guaranteed money, hope for better health in 2023-24 and then enter free agency looking like a more valuable asset. Then again, Bogdanović might be wise to opt out and take a lower annual salary (let's say $15 million per season) on a new multiyear deal, locking in as much guaranteed money and as many years as possible.
Barring a major physical breakdown over the season's final few months, he's bound to have suitors. Even in what could fairly be termed a down year, Bogdanović is putting up 14.6 points, 3.4 rebounds and 3.0 assists while hitting 38.3 percent of his threes. Useful on the ball as a pick-and-roll creator and dangerous as a spot-up threat, Bogdanović is an ideal third guard at worst and a solid starter at best.
John Collins wishes he could be the pick here, but there was no market for the man who's spent as much time in the rumor mill (without actually getting traded) as almost anyone in the league. Atlanta would draw up Collins' flight plan if it could, but there's been no runway to speak of.
Boston Celtics: Grant Williams
Maybe if the Boston Celtics were to exit the playoffs a couple of rounds earlier than expected, the idea of trading Jaylen Brown for another star would gain some traction. That doesn't technically make him a flight risk, and choosing anyone but soon-to-be restricted free agent forward Grant Williams here is a little too galaxy-brained anyway.
All of the Celtics' top rotation players are under guaranteed contracts next season, except for Williams, whose versatile frontcourt defense and demonstrated postseason effectiveness will make him a sought-after commodity. At a career-high 41.4 percent from deep this season, Williams is validating some of his hot shooting from the 2022 playoffs. He's a career 42.7 percent marksman from long range in 46 postseason contests.
Any team with cap space and a paint-bound center would do well to throw a multiyear deal at Williams, who could space the floor and even slot in as a small-ball 5 against the right matchups. A "right place, right time" defender who can handle himself in space against guards and hold his ground inside, Williams could command an annual salary in the $20 million range. He's valuable to Boston and could solidify his place in the team's future with a strong postseason, but demand for his services will be high around the league.
Brooklyn Nets: Seth Curry
Seth Curry is a double-digit scorer with a 45.9/42.0/97.1 shooting split—one making just $8.5 million in the last year of his deal. That's not exactly the profile of an unwanted player, and the high likelihood that there'd be a line around the block for Curry's services if the Brooklyn Nets were to waive him also augurs toward him finishing the year with his rebuilt team.
That said, The Athletic's John Hollinger listed the sharpshooter somewhat prominently among his buyout candidates, noting that getting Curry off the books could save the Nets heaps of luxury tax. In its post-Kevin-Durant existence, Brooklyn does need to start operating as if finances matter. Spending through the roof on a superstar-led contender is the cost of doing business, but the Nets aren't in that line of work anymore.
Curry isn't a good bet to be waived, but he does seem like someone the Nets could let get away in free agency. The roster is full of bigger, more balanced wings now that Mikal Bridges, Dorian Finney-Smith and restricted free agent Cameron Johnson are on board alongside holdover Royce O'Neale. If Brooklyn could move Joe Harris and his $19.9 million for next year, it probably would. But allowing Curry to walk is the simpler and more likely approach.
Charlotte Hornets: Kelly Oubre Jr.
The Charlotte Hornets probably wish Gordon Hayward or Terry Rozier were flight risks. The former hasn't stayed healthy in any of his three years with the team and is due a whopping $31.5 million next season, while the latter is on the hook for the next three years at a pay rate of about $25 million per season. Neither is offering enough bang for the buck.
Unfortunately, those are the types of contracts that don't tend to fly away. They perch, dig in and stay put, weighing a franchise down.
Kelly Oubre Jr., however, is free to depart.
The unrestricted free agent has the surface-level production you might think Charlotte would value, and his stats might have created enough of a market for him to change teams at the deadline if not for the January hand surgery that has him on the shelf.
The Hornets should have no interest in bringing back the least efficient 20-point scorer in the league. Oubre's 20.2 points per game come with the lowest true shooting percentage among the 53 players currently cracking the 20-point mark. Giving minutes and shots to Oubre is a sure way to keep wins from piling up. Presumably, Charlotte would like to take a step forward in 2023-24.
P.J. Washington warrants a mention here. He's shown enough stretch as a power forward to appeal to teams around the league—maybe not as a starter, but certainly as a rotation piece. The Hornets can match any offer he gets in restricted free agency, though, and their decision not to trade Washington at the deadline suggests he's a retention priority.
Chicago Bulls: Coby White
By the time this season ends, Coby White will have had four years and at least 250 games to convince the Chicago Bulls he's a part of their future. Currently averaging the fewest minutes of his career and on pace to post his worst assist rate and Player Efficiency Rating, it's safe to say White hasn't made a strong case for himself.
Chicago didn't deal White at the deadline, but that may have had more to do with a lack of outside interest than anything else. Teams with an eye on him probably suspected they didn't need to offer much for a player they could sign in the offseason.
The Bulls also didn't reach an extension agreement with White in October, which is a good signal he would at least get the chance to test the market. Picked seventh in 2019 and just barely 23 years old, White will have more interest as a free agent than he did as a trade candidate.
The Bulls have no shortage of guards (some, like Lonzo Ball, who haven't even played this season), and they'll prioritize other business before worrying about White, like a new contract for unrestricted free agent Nikola Vučević and a possible extension for Patrick Williams. Ayo Dosunmu will join White in restricted free agency, and he's already established himself as a more reliable rotation option at the same position.
Underwhelming play, a roster crunch and the Bulls' more pressing financial priorities combine to make White a clear flight risk.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Caris LeVert
Kevin Love was the clear pick here before The Athletic's Shams Charania and Jason Lloyd reported on his buyout. The lone holdover from the team that won it all in 2016, Love had seen his role reduced this season to a career-low 20.0 minutes per game, ultimately falling out of the rotation entirely.
Love was ticketed for unrestricted free agency, and so is Caris LeVert, who actually has a major role in Cleveland's rotation. Extension-eligible until June 30, LeVert has yet to reach a deal with the Cavs and was the subject of trade chatter prior to the deadline. Though his shot creation makes him an important part of Cleveland's bench unit (26 starts in 55 games), LeVert has had larger roles at previous stops and would be higher in the offensive pecking order playing someplace that didn't already have Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell ensconced as top options.
If LeVert's defense were stouter, or if he were a high-volume 40 percent three-point shooter, the Cavs might be willing to spend lavishly (using his Bird rights) to keep him in free agency. But the need for a pure three-and-D wing in the middle of Cleveland's starting and closing lineups remains pressing, and we have enough information to conclude LeVert isn't quite that kind of player.
If the Cavs can find the small forward they're looking for, and if LeVert prefers to spread his wings on offense, a split makes plenty of sense.
Dallas Mavericks: Kyrie Irving
Several unrestricted free agents—Frank Ntilikina, Markieff Morris and Christian Wood, to name three—might technically be more likely to leave the Dallas Mavericks than Kyrie Irving this offseason. But the word "risk" pretty much demands that the eight-time All-Star the Dallas Mavericks acquired at the trade deadline occupy this space.
He comes to Dallas with unrestricted free agency looming in July, little desire to talk about future plans and no firm agreement on the terms of his next contract in place. He's eligible for a two-year, $83 million extension right now but hasn't signed anything and could draw strong interest on the market, per Chris Mannix of Sports Illustrated.
If Irving bolts, the Mavs would have nothing to show for the deal that cost them Dorian Finney-Smith, Spencer Dinwiddie and a 2029 unprotected first-round pick. In that disaster scenario, Luka Dončić, whose insistence on Dallas adding a second star may have motivated the Irving gamble, would be left looking around in even greater frustration. And from there, well...let's just say we've seen superstars angle to be moved when they don't believe their teams are capable of building a contender around them.
It sounds hyperbolic, but the ultimate downside to the Irving swap is a Dončić trade request. And considering the way Irving has conducted business in his last three stops, would you really feel comfortable betting against another stint marred by unavailability and a messy divorce?
No discussion of the Mavericks' immediate future would be complete without acknowledging the combustability priced into the Irving experience and the franchise-altering fallout another burned bridge could produce.
Denver Nuggets: Bruce Brown Jr.
Bruce Brown Jr. has never been better, and for the Denver Nuggets, that's the problem. He has a $6.8 million player option for 2023-24, and his play to date is practically screaming for him to decline it.
At 26, the positionally amorphous guard/wing/roll man/corner shooter is setting new career highs in scoring (11.3 points per game), minutes (28.8) and made treys (1.3 at a 38.8 percent clip)—doing it all while providing disruptive, switchable defense for a Nuggets team currently leading the race for the West's top seed.
When he was first establishing his strange "point guard-power forward" role with the Brooklyn Nets two years ago, it would have been fair to wonder if he could find a fit on other teams. Brown's early days with the Detroit Pistons proved he wasn't a pure facilitator, and his suspect shooting made him tricky to use off the ball. Brooklyn basically created a role for him that only played to his strengths. Now, though, Brown has smoothed out the rough edges by improving his ball-handling and shooting, which means he could help every team in the league.
Defensive versatility, spot-up shooting and quietly developed skill as a lead guard (Brown has spent 35 percent of his minutes at the 1) play anywhere. It'll be shocking if Brown doesn't command offers at or above the $10 million-per-season range, and the typically tax-averse Nuggets may not be willing to go that high.
Detroit Pistons: Nerlens Noel
The buyout market might take care of this well in advance of the offseason, but Nerlens Noel is clearly the Detroit Pistons player with the longest odds to be back next year.
Marc Stein tabbed the defensive-minded backup center as the most likely Piston to be traded at the deadline, but no suitable package materialized—perhaps because teams weren't willing to give up assets for a player they suspected Detroit might simply waive.
With Noel currently away from the team, it looks like Detroit will pay the balance of his $9.2 million salary in a "work from home" situation. Either that, or it'll hand him a negotiated lump sum in a buyout so he can hit the buyout market. If the Pistons don't want to pay Noel to go away now, they can ride out the season and decline their $9.7 million team option on his 2023-24 salary.
Cory Joseph, Hamidou Diallo and Rodney McGruder are all set to hit unrestricted free agency, with Joseph also having some buyout potential. Noel, though, isn't playing, couldn't fetch a return in trade and has limited use on a team looking to develop several young centers ahead of him.
Golden State Warriors: Donte DiVincenzo
It's so tempting to pick Draymond Green here. The four-time champ has a $27.6 million player option for 2023-24, and it's not a given that he'll exercise it. That said, precious few teams have the cap space to offer him even $20 million per year on a new deal, and most of them are in rebuilding phases that don't figure to interest someone like Green, who's spent a decade contending.
The Los Angeles Lakers loom, but they seem unlikely to renounce their rights to the guys they just added at the deadline to pursue a 33-year-old who's never proved his impact is the same without Stephen Curry. Ditto for the Dallas Mavericks, who could clear cash but have Kyrie Irving's free agency to think about.
Green could also pick up his option or decline it to re-sign with the Golden State Warriors.
That leaves Andre Iguodala and JaMychal Green in the unrestricted free agent category, but neither would upend the Dubs by leaving. Iguodala isn't even really a risk; he's certain to retire.
That leaves Donte DiVincenzo, who signed a one-plus-one "make good" deal this past offseason, banking on a strong year that would make getting back into free agency via declining his player option a no-brainer. DiVincenzo has indeed made good.
He's a valuable rotation weapon for the Warriors, one who creates havoc in the passing lanes on defense and happens to be shooting a career-best 41.6 percent from long range. A shaky shooter off the dribble who still struggles to finish at close range, DiVincenzo doesn't project as a starter on a good team. But he's worth far more than what his $4.7 million player option will pay him next season, and the Warriors' massive tax penalties will prevent them from spending what it costs to bring him back.
Houston Rockets: Stephen Silas
The easy approach would have involved listing all the veterans the Houston Rockets acquired at the trade deadline and concluding that whichever of them was still around after buyout season would be the team's biggest flight risk.
All those players—Danny Green, John Wall, Justin Holiday and Frank Kaminsky—are set to become unrestricted free agents (Wall via team option), and none fits into Houston's rebuilding timeline. B/R and TNT's Chris Haynes noted right after the deal went down that the Rockets intended to waive Wall, and Green is already gone. Ditto for Holiday.
But it's not really a flight risk if the Rockets never had any intention of keeping the player(s), like Holiday and Kaminsky, in question. So let's get creative and go with embattled, frustrated, soon-to-be lame-duck head coach Stephen Silas.
Houston plays a loose and wildly undisciplined style, leads the league in turnovers and finds new ways to blow games roughly once a week. Whether Silas is to blame for the chaos hardly matters; it's reached a point where he can't seem to rein it in. In common NBA parlance, he's "lost the team."
The four-year deal he signed in October 2020 will expire after the 2023-24 season, and teams tend not to bring back coaches with just one year left on their contracts. That all points to Silas, a sympathetic figure thrust into a difficult situation, heading elsewhere this summer.
Indiana Pacers: George Hill
The homecoming angle is nice for 36-year-old Indianapolis native George Hill, but his stay with the team that initially drafted him isn't likely to extend beyond the final few months of the 2022-23 season. He arrived via a deadline trade with the Milwaukee Bucks and sits fourth on the Indiana Pacers point guard depth chart behind Tyrese Haliburton, T.J. McConnell and Andrew Nembhard (who's more of a combo threat but has spent 82.0 percent of his minutes at the 1 this year).
Hill hasn't logged a positive Box Plus/Minus since 2019-20 and won't be a retention priority when his deal expires this summer.
Oshae Brissett is the only Pacer with anything close to a rotation role who isn't under contract next year, and it's hard to imagine the team picking Hill over the 24-year-old, high-energy forward if it comes down to that last roster spot.
Indiana would probably like to see Daniel Theis or even Jalen Smith's name here, as neither big man has performed up to his contract to date. Theis has barely played following knee surgery in November but has $9.1 million coming his way in 2023-24. The Pacers brought back Smith to be a starter, and he got 28 chances to see the opening tip before the Pacers stripped him of the role. He's owed $5 million next year before a player option for $5.4 million in 2024-25.
Neither has much trade value, and Indy shouldn't give up assets to move them, so both seem like safe bets to be back.
Los Angeles Clippers: Eric Gordon
It may come as a disappointment to longtime Los Angeles Clippers fans glad to see him return to the team that drafted him, but Eric Gordon won the two-man standoff with fellow deadline acquisition Mason Plumlee for this spot.
Gordon's $20.9 million salary for 2023-24 will only become guaranteed if the Clips win the title—not out of the question, but unlikely. Los Angeles clearly doesn't care about the tax and would happily pay him in the event of a championship, but it seems safer to assume L.A. will fall short of a ring and try to retain Gordon at a cheaper rate. Because he's an experienced two-way wing who some thought might net the Houston Rockets a first-round pick in trade, Gordon profiles as someone who could field multiple offers in free agency.
Don't be surprised if he winds up making $12-15 million per season, possibly somewhere other than L.A.
The Clippers have Plumlee's Bird rights, but they may not need to spend wildly to retain him in unrestricted free agency. Backup big men, even good ones like Plumlee, don't draw the same level of interest as wings like Gordon do. As a point of comparison, there was never a scenario in which the Charlotte Hornets were going to get a first-rounder for him.
The Clips also have approximately 72 wings and forwards on the roster, meaning Gordon's minutes wouldn't be difficult to replace. Meanwhile, Plumlee is the only conventional center behind Ivica Zubac. Positional scarcity could also weigh in favor of Plumlee staying and Gordon going.
Los Angeles Lakers: Lonnie Walker IV
D'Angelo Russell's is the largest expiring contract on the payroll, which would make him the logical pick to depart in free agency if the the Los Angeles Lakers opt to go the cap space route this summer. That path seems less likely in the wake of L.A.'s recent moves. In addition to Russell, the Lakers brought aboard Rui Hachimura in an earlier trade with the Washington Wizards, and those two would both have to be renounced and allowed to walk (barring complex sign-and-trade packages) to clear anything approaching enough cap room for, say, Kyrie Irving.
Expect Russell to be back on a new deal. The Lakers have his Bird rights and can exceed the salary cap to keep him. Considering he's a 26-year-old former All-Star who can space the floor and run the offense—one the Lakers got by surrendering a lightly protected 2027 first-round pick—Russell is a good bet to stick.
Lonnie Walker IV is a different case. He's in the midst of a career year marked by personal bests in scoring average (13.2 points per game) and true shooting percentage (57.5 percent). Hyper-athletic and still just 24, the shooting guard signed a one-year deal in the 2022 offseason and will hit free agency seeking the longer-term agreement his play suggests he deserves.
The Lakers don't have his Bird rights (because of the one-year deal) and can only offer him a four-year contract worth a maximum total of $33.4 million. That won't be enough to beat the competition.
Memphis Grizzlies: Dillon Brooks
Dillon Brooks is integral to the Memphis Grizzlies' defiant, sometimes overly confrontational identity, and that might be part of the problem. His hyper-aggressive style sometimes crosses the line between competitiveness and poor sportsmanship, and it also results in Brooks hijacking Memphis' offense with too many "I got this!" bad shots.
His impending free agency might be one reason the Grizzlies offered three first-round picks for O.G. Anunoby and four for Mikal Bridges, both of whom would have been upgrades over Brooks at the same position. You could forgive Memphis for targeting players who'd fill the defensive stopper niche without also bringing all of Brooks' less desirable traits to the table.
Even if he's a mixed bag from a tone-setting standpoint, Brooks has been nothing but a positive force for the Grizzlies for as long as he's been with the team. Despite abysmal shooting and poor decision-making on offense, the 6'6" wing can cover multiple positions on D and has produced a significantly positive on-off net rating swing in every year of his career.
It's hard to be a clear difference-maker when you get up 14.3 shots per game and hit just 39.1 percent from the field and 31.2 percent from deep, but Brooks pulls it off. With loads of picks and matching salary to trade, Memphis may still think it can fill his spot in the lineup with a better, more stable option.
Miami Heat: Victor Oladipo
None of the Miami Heat's top five players in minutes per game is likely to leave this offseason, though the team might prefer Kyle Lowry and his $29.7 million salary were a bigger flight risk.
After Lowry, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro and Caleb Martin, the next three most used players (based on minutes per game) all have realistic chances to wind up elsewhere. Max Strus, Gabe Vincent and Victor Oladipo (player option) can all enter free agency, and the Heat might not bend over backward to retain the entire group. If it comes down to letting one go, it won't be an easy choice, as Strus tops the trio at a paltry 33.8 percent from deep, while none of them are shooting better than 41.0 percent from the field overall. Estimated Plus/Minus assigns negative value to each of them.
The luxury tax pain for keeping even one would be substantial. The Miami Herald's Barry Jackson notes that an Oladipo opt-in and a $7 million salary for Strus in 2023-24 would result in the Heat paying $50 million in tax next year—and that's assuming they replace their other current free agents with minimum salaries.
In the end, Strus and Vincent have firmer ties to Miami, a team that tends to keep the players with #HeatCulture experience. Oladipo has the broader name recognition, highest level of past performance and, given his injury history, perhaps the most incentive to opt out and lock down the richest deal offered.
Milwaukee Bucks: Brook Lopez
This isn't a prediction that the Milwaukee Bucks will lose Brook Lopez, but the mere possibility of the big man leaving in free agency means we have to highlight him here. A critical element to the Bucks' championship in 2021 and still vital to their operation on both ends, Lopez is basically irreplaceable.
So as he hits free agency sure to field offers well above the $13.9 million he's making this season, the Bucks should be deeply concerned.
In fairness, Lopez sounded more than open to a return when he told Michael Scotto of Hoopshype: "I love it here. I'm so thankful for the opportunity the Bucks gave me five years ago to come here and be a part of something special. We've had a great time. I can't imagine being anywhere else."
Then again, players' imaginations tend to improve when $20 million per season is on the table, which could be the case for Lopez, even if he's hitting free agency at age 35.
Joe Ingles, Jae Crowder and Wesley Matthews are all set to become unrestricted free agents, and a couple of them are probably more likely to leave Milwaukee than Lopez. But the Bucks would gladly wave goodbye to all three if it meant an assurance Lopez would be back in the fold. It's not easy to find fill-ins for Defensive Player of the Year candidates who also drill threes and have proved effective at the highest levels of competition.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Jaylen Nowell
I know, I know: Karl-Anthony Towns is sitting right there, begging to be tossed in here in a fit of hot-takery. Though the supermax deal he signed last July already looks like an overpay, and though the Minnesota Timberwolves are pretty clearly Anthony Edwards' team, it's too spicy to say KAT is going to wind up with the New York Knicks (or wherever) once he's eligible to be traded this summer.
Besides, Jaylen Nowell is "leaning toward leaving the team in the offseason via free agency," sources told The Athletic's Shams Charania. That's low-hanging flight-risk fruit we have no choice but to pick.
Nowell is a pure scorer who does his best work in the short mid-range area. His arsenal of flips and floaters have served him well over the years, and he's nails on two-point jumpers overall, ranking in at least the 81st percentile in accuracy among combo guards on those shots across all four years of his career. His in-between skills make up for substandard three-point shooting and generally poor finishing at the rim.
Teams that need scoring sparks off the bench will come calling in free agency, and it sounds as if Nowell will listen.
New Orleans Pelicans: Jaxson Hayes
It was a surprising to see Jaxson Hayes make it through the trade deadline with the New Orleans Pelicans. His $6.8 million expiring contract made him a good choice for theoretical salary matching, and the glut of bigs and forwards on the Pels roster had already rendered the 22-year-old expendable.
Jonas Valanciunas and Willy Hernangómez bring conventional big-man heft, and Larry Nance Jr. handles closing duties when New Orleans wants more switchability. As a result, Hayes has spent more time at power forward than ever before. But even there, he's finding minutes hard to come by. His 13.3 minutes per game are a career low.
With restricted free agency looming, Hayes would be wise to look for opportunities elsewhere. Based on how little they've leaned on him this year, even amid tons of injuries up and down the roster, the Pelicans won't put up much of a fight if he gets a wandering eye.
Hayes has no shortage of athleticism, and he's only in his age-22 season. But it's fair to say the No. 8 pick in the 2019 draft has failed to meet expectations in New Orleans.
New York Knicks: Josh Hart
Josh Hart is all-in on the New York Knicks experience, and his introductory press conference following the deadline deal that brought him over from the Portland Trail Blazers could hardly have appealed more to the franchise and its fans.
Ian Begley @IanBegleyJosh Hart: "I'm a guy that's gonna be physical. I'm a guy that's gonna do the dirty work. Gonna rebound, gonna defend. Get on the floor for a loose ball & do those kind of things. I feel like that style fits every team, especially a New York team. That's what this city is about."
And then, the capper: "I'm looking for a home, and I think this could be it."
One problem: Hart has a $12.9 million player option for 2023-24 that he's all but certain to decline. At 28 when free agency rolls around, the six-year veteran would be foolish to pass on the chance to re-enter the market in search of a richer deal. Though Hart's dwindling three-point volume (career-low 2.3 attempts per game) and iffy accuracy (34.1 percent) are causes for concern, he's still a quality starting wing who can defend, crash the glass and do real damage in transition. Plus, he's showing no issue draining treys since joining the Knicks.
Teams with cap space will see him as a plug-and-play piece, and it'll be a surprise if he can't get at least $16 million per year on a new deal.
The Knicks have Hart's Bird rights and can go over the cap to retain him, but they can't simply match any offer like they could if Hart were a restricted free agent. Where he goes is up to him.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Dario Šarić
Thankfully, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's leap to fringe-MVP-consideration status has taken him off the list of superstars we keep throwing into fake trades. There's almost no realistic scenario in which the Oklahoma City Thunder would consider giving up the 24-year-old All-Star with per-game averages of 30.8 points, 5.7 assists and 4.7 rebounds.
He's the cornerstone to their rebuild.
Everybody else who matters to OKC, which is to say any player under the age of 25 (plus Kenrich Williams), is under contract for next season. The outlier is deadline acquisition Dario Šarić, who'll hit unrestricted free agency.
The 28-year-old forward has actually looked pretty good, considering he's coming off a season entirely lost to a torn ACL. In 37 games for the Phoenix Suns, Šarić shot 39.1 percent from three and played with the same hard-nosed style that earned him major rotation minutes at every stop of his career. OKC dealt away reserve center Mike Muscala, which could open up minutes for Šarić down the stretch of the season. It's conceivable that he could feature prominently in the Thunder's "wait, seriously?" playoff push and that the team could view him like Williams, as a tone-setting, playable vet whose experience matters on a young roster.
With its cash and roster flexibility, Oklahoma City could certainly talk itself into keeping Šarić around. Then again, Chet Holmgren's return looms in 2023-24, and OKC may not want to tie up minutes or otherwise stray from its general preference for youth.
Orlando Magic: Gary Harris
The Orlando Magic waived Patrick Beverley shortly after acquiring him at the trade deadline, and R.J. Hampton could soon follow him out the door, per Khobi Price of the Orlando Sentinel. Other than Moritz Wagner, the Magic have no potential free agents of consequence left on the roster.
That takes some of the intrigue out of the flight risk discussion.
It's worth wondering whether Orlando would consider waiving Jonathan Isaac, whose 2023-24 salary is only guaranteed for $7.6 million. But the 25-year-old big man is showing some signs that the all-world defensive potential he had prior to brutal injury issues may still be lingering in there somewhere. In limited playing time, he's averaging a ridiculous 4.0 steals per 36 minutes and flashing the quick anticipation that made him so dangerous when he was last healthy in 2019-20.
Let's go with Gary Harris instead, whose $13 million salary for next year comes with a June 30 guarantee date. If Orlando wanted to use the veteran shooting guard in a trade on or around draft night (June 22), the acquiring team could take him on and cut him loose before July 1, reaping the cap relief. The Magic could also wait longer if all parties agree to push back the guarantee date.
Harris has been a valuable veteran presence for the Magic, drilling a career-best 46.2 percent of his 4.0 long-range tries per game. It was a little surprising he lasted through the deadline, but maybe Orlando has plans to use his nonguaranteed salary in a bigger deal this summer.
Philadelphia 76ers: James Harden
Georges Niang, Shake Milton and Jalen McDaniels are all ticketed for unrestricted free agency, but we can't focus on relative small-timers when 10-time All-Star James Harden's return to the Philadelphia 76ers is far from a lock.
Remember when ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski dropped this bomb on Christmas?
"All-Star guard James Harden is seriously considering a return to the Houston Rockets in free agency this July—if he decides against a new deal with the Philadelphia 76ers, sources told ESPN."
Even if you rolled your eyes at the reports that the former MVP has an itch to rejoin the bottom-feeding Houston Rockets, and even if you're convinced there's some kind of wink-wink understanding between Harden, Sixers president Daryl Morey and team ownership about a max contract being on the table if Harden declines his $35.6 million player option, the whole back-to-Houston thing felt at least a little bit real. There was something to it in a "truth is stranger than fiction" kind of way.
Harden also just hired a full-time agent for the first time since 2017, per Shams Charania of The Athletic. Maybe he's anticipating some contentious negotiations with the Sixers...or another team.
Is it likely Harden will ditch a contender to rejoin a lottery team that should have no interest in a ball-dominant, declining star? Maybe not. But it's possible, and the damage that could do to the Sixers, who couldn't just go out and sign another $35 million player with cap space, would be substantial.
Relatively low likelihood but exceptionally jarring to the stability of the team is exactly the kind of risk profile that belongs here.
Phoenix Suns: Chris Paul
Based on the litany of praise he's thrown Devin Booker's way, it's more likely Kevin Durant came to the Phoenix Suns because he wanted to play with him than 37-year-old Chris Paul. As with every Suns-related conversation now, talk of flight risks has to start with what KD wants.
Surely, Paul's presence was also a factor for Durant. But in addition to his age and Durant's possible preference of Booker, Paul's contract status and appearance in trade rumors give him a relatively good shot of playing elsewhere next year. Only $15.8 million of Paul's $30.8 million salary for 2023-24 is guaranteed, and the $30 million earmarked for 2024-25 isn't guaranteed at all. The Suns structured his contract that way to provide flexibility, and they've been pursuing other pathways to change as well.
Prior to the trade deadline, Jake Fischer of Yahoo Sports reported Phoenix had "contacted opposing teams in search of point guard reinforcements", looking for "premium reserve ball-handling options who could even perhaps replace [Chris] Paul in the future."
Kyrie Irving (gasp!), Fred VanVleet and D'Angelo Russell headline a shallow class of free-agent point guards who could replace Paul if their current teams are open to sign-and-trade setups. And the Irving-to-Phoenix rumors just won't go away.
Phoenix has loads of unrestricted free agents, many of whom are more likely to change teams than CP3. Don't forget Deandre Ayton, who technically signed to play with the Indiana Pacers last offseason before Phoenix matched. But the impact of Paul leaving would be the most substantial, and it's not totally out of the realm of possibility.
Portland Trail Blazers: Jerami Grant
Jerami Grant's failure to reach an extension agreement with the Portland Trail Blazers has more to do with the way the cap rules limit the value of those agreements than anything else.
In the midst of averaging 20.8 points per game on career-best 40.6 percent three-point shooting, the versatile forward has no reason to sign a four-year $112 million extension (available until June 30) when he can get up to five years and $233 million from Portland or four years and $172 million from another team in free agency.
Grant has also professed his affinity for Portland and even told Jason Quick of The Athletic he doesn't plan on leaving. He's a lock to stay, right?
Not so fast. Unrestricted free agency can be unpredictable, and Grant could find himself as one of the most desired players on the market. Switchable defenders who can space the floor off the ball and passably create their own offense are hard to find. Grant's switch to Klutch Sports also suggests he'll either drive a hard bargain in free agency, try to land with the Los Angeles Lakers or both.
If Portland continues to muddle around at .500 all year, and if Grant sees a chance to pile up cash elsewhere, it'll be understandable if he changes his mind about sticking with the Blazers.
Sacramento Kings: Harrison Barnes
Phoenix and Portland were tricky, and we strayed from the most obvious picks to focus on higher-profile options. The Sacramento Kings are simpler by comparison.
Harrison Barnes is an unrestricted free agent with a solid, multifaceted role-playing profile every team will covet. Though he started slowly in his age-30 season, the 11-year vet has all of his key numbers right in line with his career averages. A 49.5 percent hit rate on threes in January spearheaded a hot month for his team and basically got him back to the level of production most expected.
Sacramento has had success playing Barnes and rookie Keegan Murray together, but the presence of the younger option could make it easier to take a firm negotiating stance with Barnes in free agency. The Kings should value Barnes' professionalism and reliable two-way play, but one could imagine them preferring more of a shutdown defensive option or even another quick-trigger shooting specialist instead.
Barnes should be a higher retention priority than any of the Kings' other unrestricted free agents—a list that includes Terence Davis, Trey Lyles, Alex Len and Chimezie Metu—but he'll also create greater demand on the market.
San Antonio Spurs: Doug McDermott
We've tended toward picking free agents and players on partially guaranteed deals to this point, but the San Antonio Spurs require a different approach. They're in the midst of a tank and have already offloaded most of the players they might have lost through those more conventional means. Free agents Josh Richardson and Jakob Poeltl are the Pelicans' and Raptors' problems now.
Restricted free agents Tre Jones and Romeo Langford are among the more important rotation options that will at least field offers from other teams this summer, but San Antonio has oodles of cap space to spend if it wants to keep them.
Doug McDermott has another year at $13.8 million on his contract, and he seemed a likely trade candidate prior to the deadline. But as Richardson and Poeltl departed, he remained—maybe because of the 2023-24 money left on his deal. At 31, the sweet-shooting forward could fill a reserve role on a playoff team, adding spacing and skillful off-ball movement. In San Antonio, his abilities are mostly going to waste as the team races to the bottom.
If the Spurs can move him for younger pieces or draft picks during the offseason, they should—for their sake and McDermott's.
Toronto Raptors: Fred VanVleet
This is one of the tougher calls in the league, as Fred VanVleet's player option, which brings unrestricted free agency into play, gives him such a clear path out of town. Then again, the Toronto Raptors didn't trade him at the deadline, which means they might intend or expect to re-sign him this summer. Sign-and-trade constructions are still in play if FVV finds a team that wants him but lacks cap space, which only further clouds the picture.
Not to mention: Gary Trent Jr. also has a player option he's likely to decline, Thaddeus Young's contract is only guaranteed for $1 million and new acquisition Jakob Poeltl isn't quite a lock to return with his own unrestricted free agency creating the possibility of a massive offer from another team.
The pick is still VanVleet because his exit would so fundamentally change Toronto's makeup. Oddly constructed and heavy on positionless wings and forwards, the Raps don't have a quality lead guard behind him. If FVV goes, Toronto will have to fill a gaping void in its first unit. Scottie Barnes may still project as an oversized, next-generation playmaker, but he won't be ready to take over for VanVleet in that role by next season.
In discussing how difficult it'd be to replace VanVleet, it starts to seem as if the Raptors actually can't afford to lose him. Maybe they'll pony up three years and $100 million like they did for Kyle Lowry in 2017. It might take that much to beat the market, a scary proposition for a small guard whose production has slipped this year and a major reason VanVleet's return is far from assured.
Utah Jazz: Jordan Clarkson
Jordan Clarkson picked a good time to put up the best numbers of his career. He can hit free agency by declining his $14.3 million player option for 2023-24.
Granted, the Utah Jazz's remade roster gave the veteran reserve a starting spot and more offensive responsibility than ever before. But the live-wire scorer went out and seized that opportunity, averaging over 20.0 points per game for the first time in his career and leading the NBA with 15 made three-pointers in close-and-late situations.
It may still be the case that, on a good team, Clarkson is best used as a reserve gunner. Players in that role don't tend to get the most bloated contracts, but he should expect multiyear offers that start at or above the $14.3 million he would have made next season. Three years and $55 million wouldn't be shocking.
Are the rebuilding Jazz a team that should spend significant resources on the high-volume, moderate-efficiency scorer ahead of his age-31 season? Probably not, and the fact that Clarkson "rebuffed" extension offers this season, per Marc Stein, suggests he's interested in seeing what the market has in store for him as a free agent.
At the very least, Clarkson is going to take a look around to see what's out there. Utah should have other priorities. Combine those two factors, and it's reasonable to expect a split.
Washington Wizards: Kyle Kuzma
For better or worse, the Washington Wizards have a history of talent retention that suggests Kyle Kuzma could be back with the team on a new deal this summer. Kuzma has a $13 million player option for 2023-24 that he'll almost certainly decline in search of a longer, larger contract, and the Wizards could add him to the list of their high-profile re-signings that includes John Wall, Otto Porter Jr., Dāvis Bertāns and Bradley Beal.
Washington will have Kuzma's Bird rights if he opts out, which will allow it to offer a fifth year and more money than any other free-agent suitor. No wonder Kuzma is willing to return.
It's difficult to know whether Washington has an upper limit on what it'll spend to keep Kuzma. He's a skilled scorer who can play either forward spot and could attract substantial offers worth upward of $25 million per season. The real concern here, aside from Washington grossly overpaying like it did to keep Beal and others, is Kuzma signing elsewhere and leaving for nothing.
That's where the "risk" side of the calculus gets scary; Washington could have dealt Kuzma for a considerable haul at the 2023 deadline. If he gets away, failing to trade him ahead of time will be a serious mistake.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Spotrac.
Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.