Young MLB Players With Breakout Potential in 2023
We're just about two weeks away from the first spring training Cactus League games.
So if you've been longing for baseball since the Astros won the World Series last November, hang on just a little longer. We are almost there.
In the meantime, it's worth considering some of the potential breakout stars of this season.
Last year held a star-studded rookie class to go along with the usual emergence of lesser-known talent.
While Julio Rodriguez, Adley Rutschman, Bobby Witt Jr. and Jeremy Peña impressed as rookies, there was also Dansby Swanson, who parlayed his first All-Star appearance and Gold Glove Award into a lucrative free-agent contract with the Chicago Cubs.
Let's look at the young MLB players with breakout potential in 2023. The term "young" for our purposes is defined as no older than 27, or three years or less in the big leagues.
LHP Justin Steele, Chicago Cubs
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Steele's last seven starts flew under the radar as the Cubs did not factor into the postseason conversation.
But he was quietly one of the better starters in baseball during that time. He posted a 0.98 ERA and 31 percent strikeout rate across his last 36.2 innings pitched.
Steele, 27, struck out nine or more in three of his five starts in August. He was near impossible to barrel up, ranking in the top 95 percentile in barrel percentage (3.9). This is mainly because of the spin on his fastball and ability to change speeds.
Steele's fastball spin also ranked in the top 95 percentile. He threw 1,155 fastballs last season and gave up just two home runs.
Before Kyle Schwarber jumped on the first pitch he threw in his July 22 start against the Philadelphia Phillies, Steele was 21 four-seam fastballs away from throwing the most without allowing a home run on the pitch.
Steele has five pitches but mostly relies on the fastball and slider. He's acknowledged a third pitch would really help him take that next step.
LF Austin Hays, Baltimore Orioles
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The 27-year-old Hays enters this season as the Orioles' starting left fielder coming off a season in which Baltimore got the baseball world's attention.
The Orioles finished three games out of a Wild Card spot after tying for the worst record in baseball the previous year. A big part of the turnaround in Baltimore is Hays, who ranked joint-10th in fWAR among qualified left fielders.
Hays is equipped with experience, having appeared in 350 major league games since his first call-up in 2017.
Now, with the Orioles' recent success and some expectation, comes the spotlight. Most of it usually shined on All-Star center fielder Cedric Mullins and right fielder Anthony Santander.
But Hays, the youngest of them all, rounds one of the more solid outfields in the game.
RHP Aaron Ashby, Milwaukee Brewers
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Ashby went just 2-for-10 last season with a 4.44 ERA in 27 games (19 starts), but his strikeout numbers indicate there's underlying potential for a breakout 2023.
His 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings should translate, and Steamer projects it again being double digits. Ashby also had an elite 56.1 percent ground ball rate and projects to post a similar clip this season.
That's likely among the reasons the Brewers felt comfortable giving the 24-year-old left-hander a five-year, $20.5 million contract extension last July.
It was his ability to continuously miss bats that led to his call up as Milwaukee's top pitching prospect nearly two years ago.
Add the fact Corbin Burnes could be traded, it's possible the Brewers need more from everyone in their rotation at some point.
Ashby has control issues he needs to fix but all of the tools are there.
1B Andrew Vaughn, Chicago White Sox
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As tough as it may be to watch Jose Abreu leave the South Side after nearly a decade as the franchise stalwart, the silver lining is the promise of Vaughn adequately filling his shoes.
Perhaps an underrated part of the White Sox's failures over the past couple of years is their positional redundancy, with log jams at first base and left field while struggling to find answers in right field and second base.
Abreu's departure clears some of that up, allowing Vaughn to assume the everyday role as was always intended when the White Sox selected him third overall in 2019.
Vaughn's biggest issue since cracking the big leagues in 2021 has been consistency. Last season before the All-Star break, he slashed .301/.350/.470 and had his best month in June (.324/.381/.419).
But after the break, Vaughn's slash line was .234/.285/.381. The hope is that with a more defined role as Chicago's everyday first baseman, the 24-year-old can really thrive.
He already hits the ball harder than most. It's one spot the White Sox should be able to rely on.
LHP Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds
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While the Reds remain one of baseball's bottom feeders, they have young talent at the top of their rotation with Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft and Lodolo.
Cincinnati has a long way to go before digging its way out of purgatory, but the pitching is promising.
Lodolo, who just turned 25 this month, posted a 3.66 ERA and 29.7 strikeout percentage across his 103.1 innings as a rookie. He was even more impressive to close out the season, with a 2.92 ERA, 1.065 WHIP and 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings in the second half.
Health will be key for Lodolo, who spent more than two months on the injured list early in the season with a lower back strain.
Lodolo said one of his main emphases this offseason was to get stronger, which he acknowledged comes with time.
But what he already has is a wicked curveball as his signature pitch, generating whiffs 46 percent of the time last season.
2B Brendan Rodgers, Colorado Rockies
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Rodgers became a regular in 2021 and last year played more than he ever had since being called up in 2019. He made the most of it, finishing 11th among second basemen in fWAR and 14th in wRC+.
Rodgers also won his first NL Gold Glove Award, but he still has more to offer. Despite having significantly more at-bats last year, his home run total (13) dipped from the previous season (15).
The Rockies may not expect to be competitive this year, but they will want development from players like the 26-year-old Rodgers, who had a 102 OPS+ and .470 slugging percentage in 2021, down a bit to 96 OPS+ and .408 slugging last year.
If Rodgers can channel the player he was last June, when he hit five home runs and posted a .868 OPS, the Rockies might have one of the premier players at the position.
RHP Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds
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Like his teammate Lodolo, the 23-year-old Greene projects to be a top-25 pitcher by WAR with 200-plus strikeouts.
The only other teammates projected for 200-plus strikeouts are the Mets' Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, the Mariners' Robbie Ray and Luis Castillo, the Yankees' Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón and the Rays' Shane McClanahan and Tyler Glasnow.
Those are all proven tandems, while you can expect Greene and Lodolo to soon emerge.
MLB.com's David Adler recently described Greene's rookie season as "electric but rocky" but also made the case for him as the young ace to watch in 2023.
Greene set a pitch-tracking era record with 39 triple-digit pitches in his second career start against the Dodgers, but he was rough from May through July with a 5.49 ERA. Then a shoulder strain sidelined him for another month-and-a-half.
Toward the end of the season, Greene reengaged with his fastball after leaning more on his slider during that difficult stretch. It was somehow even better than before, averaging 99.8 mph from September to October, the highest by any starting pitcher in any month of the season.
He posted a 0.78 ERA and 14.5 strikeouts per nine innings in his last four starts, something he looks to build upon in 2023.
3B Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies
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This shouldn't be the first or last place you find Bohm's name linked to breakout potential. It's been anticipated since he was picked third overall in 2018 before making his big league debut during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.
Bohm was electric in that abbreviated season, slashing .338/.400/.481 in just 160 at-bats. Then his 2021 season fell flat, with Bohm's OPS+ falling from 137 to 75.
It was bad enough that the Phillies sent him back down to Triple-A at the end of that season just to help with the fundamentals on his swing.
But offense is not the biggest concern with the 26-year-old Bohm. His potential there is evident in the hard contact numbers.
Defensively is where the Phillies need Bohm to be better if he's truly going to break out in 2023. Last year, he was among the worst at the position with minus-9 outs above average.
Bohm doesn't need to win a Gold Glove, necessarily, but he has to be better than that.
RHP Cristian Javier, Houston Astros
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It seems a bit strange suggesting a "breakout" season for someone who's pitched in 14 postseason games, including four in the World Series, over the last three years.
But this should be Javier's first full season as a starter. Due to the Astros' embarrassment of riches in starting pitching, they have been able to bounce Javier back and forth from the rotation to the bullpen, and he's been adept at handling the change.
Now, with Justin Verlander gone to the Mets, Javier's place in the Astros' rotation is solidified. Framber Valdez and Lance McCullers Jr. will likely sit atop the rotation, but Javier is arguably their most difficult pitcher to hit.
His expected numbers are off the charts.
Javier's xBA (.168), xSLG (.286), xWOBA (.244), xERA (2.43) and strikeout percentage (33.2) were all among the best in baseball last season.
Still just 25 years old, Javier should soon be known as one of the game's brightest young stars.
SS Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates
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The boom-or-bust potential in Cruz is about as large as his 6'7" frame. His whiff and strikeout percentages last year weren't quite as bad as the small sample size from 2021, but it was still pretty bad.
Cruz whiffed 34.9 percent of the time last year. Of players with at least 300 at-bats, only Joey Gallo and Chris Taylor struck out at a higher percentage.
That's the bust potential, but then there's the boom.
This is the same guy with the hardest hit of the Statcast era (122.4 mph) and the hardest throw from the infield. His sprint speed and arm strength are elite.
Now, we're just waiting on him to channel it into consistent production both at the plate and in the field.
If he can become more disciplined as a hitter and more fundamentally sound defensively, this will be one of the game's more fun and popular players to watch.
Statistics courtesy of Baseball Reference, Fangraphs and Baseball Savant unless otherwise noted.
