Breaking Down the 7 True Super Bowl LVII Contenders on the Brink of the NFL Playoffs
Well, it's been a long, weird, winding road, but we're on the brink of the 2022 NFL playoffs. A few positions are up for grabs in Week 18, but it's already extremely clear who the seven top title contenders are.
We're talking about the Buffalo Bills, San Francisco 49ers, Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens, who are a distinct group atop the DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) leaderboard at Football Outsiders and are the only teams in the NFL with winning records and scoring margins higher than plus-10.
There's a huge gap separating these seven from the rest of the league.
Buffalo Bills (12-3)
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The Bills are obviously and rightly prioritizing Damar Hamlin's recovery, but it's also possible the league's top-ranked team in terms of DVOA wins the whole damn thing for him.
Why they'll win it all: With the league's fifth-ranked scoring offense and second-ranked scoring defense, they're probably the most well-rounded team in professional football. Wins in Los Angeles (against the Rams), Baltimore and Kansas City show they're ready.
Why they'll fall short: Quarterback Josh Allen is often dominant, but he's also just one interception shy of the NFL lead with 13 picks. With turnovers factoring in, the Bills have had a few stunningly flat efforts. Put out of those in the postseason and they're done. Again.
San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
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Despite multiple quarterback shuffles in 2022, Kyle Shanahan's team leads the NFC with a plus-148 scoring margin.
Why they'll win it all: Shanahan is one of the sport's best minds, and he's got a hell of a lot of chesspieces to work with. Oh, and the NFL's top-ranked scoring defense.
Why they'll fall short: As good as rookie seventh-round pick Brock Purdy has been, he's still a rookie seventh-round pick. Nobody has come close to leading a team to a championship under those circumstances. There's still a chance Jimmy Garoppolo returns from a foot injury in the playoffs, but that's an extreme uncertainty.
Dallas Cowboys (12-4)
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After more than a quarter-century without a Super Bowl appearance, America's Team has a legit shot this winter.
Why they'll win it all: The league's second-highest-scoring offense would likely rank first in that metric if not for the fact that star quarterback Dak Prescott missed a handful of games because of a thumb injury. Throw in Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence on the No. 2 defense in terms of DVOA, and the pieces are in place.
Why they'll fall short: Prescott is tied for the league lead with 14 interceptions, and Dallas has turned the ball over 12 times in the last six weeks. That can't happen in the postseason.
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Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)
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The NFC's top-ranked team in terms of total DVOA has been a power-rankings king much of the season but has encountered some obstacles down the stretch.
Why they'll win it all: The Eagles have lost just one game this season with quarterback Jalen Hurts in the lineup.
Why they'll fall short: Hurts is not in the lineup, as the MVP candidate has missed the last two weeks with a shoulder injury. Without him, the Eagles lost both of those games. He might return soon, but tight end Dallas Goedert hasn't seemingly gotten to 100 percent following his shoulder injury and safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson (lacerated kidney), defensive end Robert Quinn (knee) and offensive lineman Lane Johnson (torn adductor) remain out as well. Can they get healthy enough in time?
Kansas City Chiefs (13-3)
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With Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes in tow and just one loss since mid-October, the Chiefs are once again in the mix.
Why they'll win it all: Reid, Mahomes and a nice run for a team that features the league's highest-scoring offense and has Super Bowl pedigree already,
Why they'll fall short: They're not dominating anyone. Three of their last four wins have come by six or fewer points. They had multiple turnovers in each of those affairs, including a shockingly poor Week 17 performance at home against the lowly Denver Broncos in Week 17. Chiefs teams with similar talent have fallen short in each of the last two seasons, so why should 2022 be any different?
Cincinnati Bengals (11-4)
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Last year's Super Bowl finalist from the AFC can't be counted out with one of the sport's best young quarterbacks and a top-five scoring defense. The Bengals also haven't lost since Halloween.
Why they'll win it all: It might be just the next step in the process for QB Joe Burrow and head coach Zac Taylor. The 26-year-old Burrow is the league's highest-rated passer since the start of 2021, and he's got receivers Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins and running back Joe Mixon at his disposal.
Why they'll fall short: They'll likely lack full home-field advantage in the playoffs in the extremely competitive AFC, and they've cut it close in recent victories over Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay and New England. (It's probably a good sign that this blurb is extremely nitpicky.)
Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
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The Lamar Jackson injury is the elephant in the room for a Ravens team that is 3-3 with a negative scoring margin since Week 12.
Why they'll win it all: Jackson could return soon from a knee injury, and the AFC North crown is still up for grabs. And they still have the league's third-ranked scoring defense.
Why they'll fall short: With six losses, they're at the bottom of the elite group in the AFC and will likely have to win several road games in order to make it to Glendale, Arizona, for the Super Bowl on Feb. 12.
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.jpg?w=480 "49ers Eagles Football")
