NBA MVP Rankings: Nikola Jokić Is Flirting with NBA History
A few months ago, if you were like me, you probably thought our final NBA MVP ladder of the 2022 calendar year would be easier than any of the rest.
And if, in fact, you were like me, then you were all sorts of wrong.
This season's MVP race continues to be a turbulent affair. Sifting through the landscape is getting tougher each and every day, forcing gobs of recalibration on not just the order, but also how to interpret the very concept of this award.
Unlike last time, no new faces have entered the top-10 fray. Yet, there will be multiple shakeups inside the top five.
Your usual reminder: These rankings reflect a snapshot in time—what my ballot would look like if the season ended prior to Monday night's games. Recent performances carry a ton of weight within discussions for each player, but this is still a seasonlong evaluation at its heart and will not be entirely subjected to spur-of-the-moment swings that are implicitly unsustainable.
Honorable Mentions
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10. Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers
Previous Ranking: 9
Donovan Mitchell just spit out another two-week span of averaging over 28 points per game and finding nylon on a high volume of off-the-dribble threes. With Cleveland hanging onto the East's three-seed, he'd be a top-five lock in most other seasons. It speaks to the depth of this year's field that he may struggle to crack the top seven without some divine intervention.
9. Zion Williamson, New Orleans Pelicans
Previous Ranking: 6
Zion isn't getting penalized for missing New Orleans' past few games. Absences because of the health-and-safety protocols should largely be written off.
His numbers through the four appearances he made since last time are glitzy enough to prop up his stock: 26.3 points and 7.3 assists on 59.7 percent shooting inside the arc. But his accuracy at the charity stripe slipped, as did his defense, and the (shorthanded) Pelicans lost all four games while getting slammed with him on the floor.
8. Kevin Durant, Brooklyn Nets
Previous Ranking: 10
Kevin Durant has churned out gaga efficiency this season without raining fire from deep. Over the past two weeks, though, he's downing 47.1 percent of his triples. This, mind you, is on top of his shouldering some hard-as-hell defensive assignments.
Trusting the Nets remains a fool's errand, because...obviously. And I personally gravitate toward candidates who shoulder more dynamic playmaking workloads. But Brooklyn is fourth in the East, and Durant remains a human flamethrower. His place in this conversation is far from capped.
7. Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers
Previous Ranking: 10
Embiid's MVP stock apparently won't withstand a blow alongside a healthy James Harden. The Sixers continue to funnel their offense through him. He, in turn, continues to dominate.
In the six games he's played since the last ladder, Embiid is averaging 32.3 points on 62.5 true shooting, including a preposterous 70.5 percent clip inside the restricted area and 46.9 percent hit rate on above-the-break threes. That he sustains this level of efficiency for any length of time, while being double-teamed on a larger share of his possessions than anyone else on this list, is quite literally MVP-caliber stuff.
6. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
Previous Ranking: 7
SGA isn't fading from the periphery of this discussion unless the Thunder start load-managing him. He's averaging 33.6 points and 5.4 assists on 60.5 true shooting since the last ladder, and he racked up yet another game-winner against Portland on Dec. 19.
Harping on Oklahoma City's record is somewhat reductive in this instance. The team is a net plus with SGA on the court for the season, and he ranks ninth in estimated win probability added, according to Inpredictable.
5. Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
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Previous Ranking: 2
Stephen Curry hasn't played since Dec. 16 after suffering a partial dislocation of his left shoulder. That isn't a long enough absence to erase everything he's done this season. He has logged more total minutes than Joel Embiid at this writing.
Future ladders are a different story.
Curry is expected to miss at least another two weeks, putting him in imminent danger of dropping outside the top 10 when meet again in 2023.
Fortunately for him, he has the cachet to immediately crash the discussion upon return.
The Golden State Warriors have mostly floundered without him—their Christmas Day win over Memphis notwithstanding—and his numbers read like a typo's typo: 30.0 points and 6.8 assists on 59 percent two-point shooting and a 43.4 percent clip from deep amid the usual brain-bending volume.
4. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
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Previous Ranking: 4
Giannis Antetokounmpo's dominance remains indescribable. It scales to so many different aspects of the game and persists in spite of glaring flaws—most notably his three-point and free-throw shooting.
His numbers since the last MVP ladder are predictably nuclear: 31.5 points, 10.7 rebounds and 4.2 assists. He has canned just 21.1 percent of his threes over this stretch and struggled on in-the-paint-yet-outside-restricted-area twos (11.8 percent). But he's also converting 75.9 percent of his looks at the rim and 45.8 percent of his mid-range jumpers.
Something, quite frankly, just feels a little off.
Giannis will always ruin lives at both ends, but he seems more selective these days in how and when he goes about it. The Milwaukee Bucks have likewise handedly lost the minutes he's played the past couple of weeks (minus-55).
That isn't on him alone. Space is harder to come by in the half-court as Khris Middleton battles yet another injury, and the two-man game between Giannis and Jrue Holiday just isn't the same as the Giannis-Middleton connection.
Maybe we're simply seeing Giannis navigate the awkwardness of Milwaukee's rotation. Middleton has not only appeared in just seven games, but Joe Ingles is also being integrated into the fold and the Bucks at times seem too dependent on Grayson Allen.
Whatever the reason, Giannis' MVP case exists in a gray area—certifiably strong, but with room for improvement.
3. Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics
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Previous Ranking: 3
Three.
That's the number of 40-point performances Jayson Tatum has turned in since the last MVP ladder. He accordingly leads the league in scoring during this time—all while maintaining a ridiculous 65.5 true shooting percentage.
Digging into his overarching case is at once incredibly simple and complicated.
If I had to guess, he would be voted MVP right now. The Boston Celtics have the best record in the league and crush opponents during his minutes, and voter fatigue will undoubtedly impact both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokić, who have snagged the past four awards between them.
Tatum solidifies his case even further with material changes to his offense and his body of work on defense. He has never been a more committed driver or better at getting to the charity stripe, and Kevin Durant is the only player inside the top 10 who has spent more time guarding No. 1 options, according to BBall Index.
Still, Tatum's case gets somewhat diluted by his surroundings. He has another All-NBA candidate, Jaylen Brown, playing right beside him, and he's given some level of offensive cover with Marcus Smart handling so much of the floor-general responsibilities.
This isn't a particularly compelling argument against Tatum. Then again, it's not meant to be. The top three-to-six candidates almost feel interchangeable at the moment. Tatum could very well be No. 1 next time around, and he wouldn't be an unworthy No. 1 now.
2. Luka Dončić, Dallas Mavericks
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Previous Ranking: 1
Luka Dončić is not being dethroned through any fault of his own. He remains mind-meltingly magnificent—the vessel through which the Dallas Mavericks avoid utter irrelevance.
To their credit, the Mavs have done a slightly better job managing his on-ball workload. Dončić's 37.1 usage rate over the past month is still monstrous, but it's a smidge below the 39.1 he was saddled with through the first part of the season. More of his buckets are even coming off assists (13.3 percent, up from 9.7).
This is not to suggest Dončić has seen his output diminished or his importance streamlined. Dallas is getting a touch more out of its complementary pieces, but the supporting cast remains subject to peaks and violent valleys.
Defenses aren't even slightly more inclined to plan around anyone other than Dončić. The Los Angeles Lakers lived (and eventually died) on Christmas with throwing the kitchen sink at Luka. The other Mavs ultimately started making shots, and Dončić carved them up anyway after a slow start.
Through it all, the numbers speak for themselves. Dončić no longer looks like a lock to win the scoring title, but he spent the past two weeks averaging 31.5 points and 8.5 assists while dropping in 53.3 percent of his twos and 42.2 percent of his triples.
Dallas' record still doesn't do Dončić any favors. It has little bearing here—the team is comfortably winning the minutes he plays—but the Mavs will likely need to climb out of play-in territory or at least scoop up a few more hallmark victories for Dončić to be more of a consensus favorite.
1. Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets
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Previous Ranking: 5
Numerous times throughout the season, I've wondered whether my own cowardice has held back Nikola Jokić. This ladder isn't meant to be predictive; it's mine. At the same time, the idea that voter fatigue alone will probably prevent Jokić from bagging a third straight MVP gnaws at me and, even if inadvertently, might have factored in at least once or twice.
Not anymore.
Jokić is officially checking every imaginable box—emphatically and beyond a shadow of a doubt.
Need your MVP to pile up the counting stats on bonkers efficiency? Jokić is averaging a triple-double since the last ladder (31.8 points, 14.7 rebounds, 10.8) and is up to 66.8 percent shooting(!) inside the arc for the season.
Is domination of the advanced metrics important to you? No sweat. Pick a catch-all stat. Jokić likely ranks No. 1 in it. The Denver Nuggets are also better with him on both sides of the floor, and he continues to lead the NBA in net-rating swing among everyone who has logged at least 125 total minutes.
Insist on concrete evidence that your MVP uplifts those around him? Denver's effective field-goal percentage improves by eight points with Jokić in the game—once more a league-leading uptick.
Are team wins important to you? Or does "Best player on the best team" speak to you? The Nuggets are first in the Western Conference—by a hair—with a top-three record overall.
Perhaps you appreciate the anecdotal boosts or adversity overcome. Jokić has largely spearheaded the Nuggets' rise without Michael Porter Jr. playing (he returned to the lineup Dec. 23) and while Jamal Murray still tries to regain his form and find a happy medium.
Voter fatigue is no longer a good-faith excuse, assuming it ever was. Jokić has his weaknesses, specifically on defense. But even there, we saw the Nuggets switch up some of their coverages in a Dec. 20 win over the Grizzlies. Jokić is not completely inflexible at the less glamorous end, let alone a liability.
Maybe you will split hairs and default to someone you trust more in the postseason. That's fine. That doesn't make Jokić an undeserving pick. If anything, this might be his strongest case yet.
This is no longer a matter of Denver being at the top of the standings or coping with a less-than-ideal supporting cast. It's both. And if the season ended today, Jokic should have a genuine chance to join Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain and Larry Bird as the only players to win three consecutive MVP awards.
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass and accurate entering Monday's games. Salary information via Spotrac.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes
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