NFL Coaches on Hot Seats Down the Stretch of 2022 Season
For every action, Newton's Third Law states, there is an equal and opposite reaction. NFL head coaches find the scientific belief holds true in regard to job security, too.
Make the playoffs, and you're very likely returning next year. Miss the postseason, though, your future may be unclear.
Already in 2022, the Carolina Panthers (Matt Rhule) and Indianapolis Colts (Frank Reich) have fired the head coach. More changes will be coming, particularly on "Black Monday" after the regular season ends. Between now, the perceived temperature of coaching seats can rise or fall sharply.
The following order is a subjective ranking of a likelihood a particular coach is fired during the current cycle.
On the Radar
1 of 6
Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns
Given that Deshaun Watson hasn't yet played, moving on from Stefanski—the coach who ended an 18-year playoff drought with Baker Mayfield—would be unfair despite the 3-7 record.
Right or wrong, Cleveland mortgaged its near future on Watson. Stefanski has earned a chance to build this reshaped offense, and six games in 2022 is a small sample. But if the Browns' last six games go poorly, a frustrating year might result in Cleveland giving someone else a shot.
Dan Campbell, Detroit Lions
Although the Buffalo Bills snapped a three-game winning streak on Thanksgiving Day, Campbell's security is trending up. After edging the rival Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears, the Lions toppled the seven-win New York Giants. Detroit is feeling decent today.
However, that perception can change quickly if the Lions fall apart. For example, the schedule still includes the Jacksonville Jaguars. Lose there and close the regular season with consecutive losses to the Carolina Panthers, Bears and Packers, and frustration will return promptly.
Ron Rivera, Washington Commanders
Rivera has similarly put himself on the right side of the bubble as we speak. In mid-October, his outlook was growing bleak as Washington took four straight losses. Since then, the Commanders have a 5-1 record and sit merely a half-game out of the NFC playoff race. While it may take a total collapse for Rivera's seat to warm again, a difficult remaining slate leaves that possibility open.
5. Josh McDaniels, Las Vegas Raiders
2 of 6
If you believe Las Vegas Raiders owner Mark Davis, Josh McDaniels won't be a one-and-done coach.
"As far as Josh goes, I have no issues," Davis said earlier in November, according to Ed Graney of the Las Vegas Review-Journal. "I'm getting to know him a lot better. When you sign someone to a contract, don't you expect him to fulfill the contract?"
Jeff Howe of The Athletic also reported McDaniels has been given assurances he will return in 2023. The signs are pointing to a relatively quiet offseason for the Raiders.
They are, meanwhile, the league's most disappointing team.
The offense is highly inconsistent. The defense has no meaningful rusher outside of star Maxx Crosby. Las Vegas' only three victories are against the hapless Houston Texans and disastrous Denver Broncos. They lost to the Indianapolis Colts when interim Jeff Saturday, who's never coached at a level beyond high school, made his NFL debut.
Davis' support keeps McDaniels' ranking low. Nevertheless, much of the evidence suggests he should be feeling the pressure.
4. Brandon Staley, Los Angeles Chargers
3 of 6
Injuries happen to every team around the NFL. Somehow, it seems the Los Angeles Chargers annually take an unfair share of health setbacks each season, though.
That is a legitimate defense for Brandon Staley.
The problem, however, is L.A.'s nonexistent defense.
Once again, the Chargers have a vulnerable unit. Again, injuries have created a notable disadvantage. Among the issues, All-Pro pass-rusher Joey Bosa and cornerback J.C. Jackson, a prized free-agent addition, have missed half of the season. Still, the Chargers rank 29th in scoring defense and 31st in yards allowed per play.
Staley will be safe if Los Angeles surges into the playoffs, and he probably deserves a third year anyway.
However, the potential for rumors clouding Staley's future will linger—especially if Sean Payton is actually an option.
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3. Lovie Smith, Houston Texans
4 of 6
To be clear, Lovie Smith entered a tough situation. He accepted the promotion, sure, but both Smith and predecessor David Culley faced an unenviable task as the Houston Texans dealt with now-former quarterback Deshaun Watson facing numerous allegations of sexual assault.
If the Texans fired Culley anyway, however, there's no reason to believe they won't consider doing the same to Smith.
The discussion should be simple: Is he the proper coach to support a potential franchise-altering quarterback?
Heading into Week 12, Houston benched Davis Mills for Kyle Allen. Barring an incredible surge from him, the Texans are headed for an early pick—and quite possibly No. 1 overall—in a 2023 NFL draft that includes touted prospects Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud.
Smith is a very capable leader but has always been a defensive-minded coach. The current offensive coordinator is Pep Hamilton, a well-regarded teacher but shaky play-caller.
Houston has several options to consider, and some involve Smith remaining the steady boss he's been. But if there are doubts Smith can assemble a staff to properly develop a QB, a change may be made.
2. Kliff Kingsbury, Arizona Cardinals
5 of 6
During the offseason, the Arizona Cardinals signed both Kliff Kingsbury and general manager Steve Keim to extensions.
That is a complicating factor, for sure. But a 4-7 start to the 2022 season with one of the league's least explosive offenses is making the calculation less difficult to understand.
At this point, the question isn't as much if the Cardinals are willing to set fire to many millions to dismiss him (and maybe Keim) as much as whether they can afford to keep Kingsbury. It seems clear that either he or quarterback Kyler Murray needs to leave for Arizona to have a reasonably fresh start, and Murray just inked a $230.5 million contract that is far more burdensome to move.
It's possible the Cards attempt to make the pairing work in 2023. The best versions of Murray and Kingsbury are electric.
The risk, however, is that little improves next season and Arizona wasted another year delaying a fix to what emerged as a problem late in 2021 and has become a glaring issue in 2022.
1. Nathaniel Hackett, Denver Broncos
6 of 6
Nathaniel Hackett is in over his head.
That's the quick version of the story for the first-year Denver Broncos boss. Within a month, the Broncos hired Jerry Rosburg to assist with in-game decisions and clock management. Around the halfway mark, Hackett ceded play-calling duties to Klint Kubiak.
The problem isn't that Hackett has an extra voice or that he's not calling plays. Plenty of head coaches have analysts dedicated to the former and coordinators handling the latter.
But if Hackett needs to keep sharing or passing off responsibilities, where does it end?
Denver is 3-7 with the NFL's worst offense. The team has wasted an elite defense all the way out of the playoff race.
Hackett is a proven offensive coordinator who deserves that job somewhere next season. At least for right now, however, he's ill-equipped to run the show.
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