NFL's Next Head Coaching Cycle Should Be Defined by Resurgent 2022 Defenses

The NFL's current trajectory has the league about to experience a course correct, with a greater emphasis placed on the defensive side of the ball.

For the last five offseasons, almost every franchise in need of a new head coach searched for their version of Sean McVay. They wanted a young, brilliant offensive mind to take the team into the future. There's only one McVay, though.

Even so, 37 different head coaching vacancies have opened since the start of the 2018 offseason. Coaches with offensive backgrounds filled 24 (or 65 percent) of those available jobs.

The owners know it's an offensive-driven league because they've pushed it in that direction under their stewardship. Almost every innovation is built toward scoring more points.

Yet defenses are finally starting to catch up and prevent offenses from continuously running wild. More zone coverage overall, dropping more defenders into space and more confusion at the line of scrimmage have made it difficult for quarterbacks and their offenses to be as effective in 2022.

Going into this past weekend's slate, the rate at which teams scored showed a significant decline.

"NFL teams are averaging 20.76 points per game this season, the lowest output since the 2017 season and second-lowest over the past decade," CBS Sports' Jonathan Jones noted before Week 7.

"It comes two years after the NFL saw its most points ever in a season. The 2020 NFL season brought a record-high 12,692 points, blasting the previous record of 11,985 points set in the 2013 season."

According to the NFL's executive vice president of football operations, Troy Vincent, the biggest change can be found near the end zone.

"Teams are in the red zone. They're not punching it in," Vincent told reporters. "They're kicking field goals."

Defenses have made the necessary adjustments to slow their counterparts. The game remains driven by offense, but smart coordinators have found ways to minimize the damage.

Owners with some foresight will realize that the pool of talented, young offensive coordinators has been picked over multiple times. Instead, they'll look to some of the brightest minds on the other side of the ball to find the best available candidates.

Six names should be considered top-tier options heading into the 2023 hiring cycle. It's not a coincidence that these six coaches run units ranked among the league's top seven defenses so far this season.

DeMeco Ryans, San Francisco 49ers

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San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans works the sideline during an NFL football game against the Tennessee Titans, Thursday, Dec. 23, 2021, in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/John Amis)

DeMeco Ryans can walk into any organization with instant credibility, either from his playing days or as an up-and-coming coach.

As a member of the Alabama Crimson Tide, Ryans was the 2005 SEC Defensive Player of the Year. He followed a standout collegiate career with 10 seasons in the NFL, where he became the 2006 Defensive Rookie of the Year and made a pair of Pro Bowls.

Since retiring, Ryans quickly ascended the coaching ranks. After joining the San Francisco 49ers as a defensive quality control coach in 2017, he went on to become inside linebackers coach for three seasons before being named defensive coordinator upon Robert Saleh's departure.

In his first season at the helm, Ryans' unit finished third in total defense. A year later, the group is even better. San Francisco owns the game's top-ranked defense, with a 24.1 yards per game improvement over last year's effort.

An immediate difference was seen upon Ryans taking over the 49ers defense.

"DeMeco's an aggressive guy," head coach Kyle Shanahan said last year, per The Athletic's Tim Kawakami. "I always messed with Saleh because I said I don't think he's ever lost a dollar in his life gambling because Saleh doesn't want to gamble too much. I think DeMeco will do that a little bit more. Sometimes there's a little risk in that, but sometimes there's some reward also."

An assistant's understanding of the Xs and Os is one thing. How a head coach relates to his players is a significant differentiator between those who succeed or fail. Because of Ryans' background, he's going to demand respect, and his players will know that he understands the game and what they're going through better than most.

"DeMeco sees it differently," an anonymous personnel executive, who identified Ryans as his top pick if he had to hire a head coach, told CBS Sports' Jonathan Jones. "There's something different when a middle linebacker is calling the defense. He has to know what's going on in front of him and behind him. The structure of the scheme was already in place, but he took some of the nuance out of it so guys could just line up and play."

The leader of the league's No. 1 defense already appears atop the leaderboard for next year's top candidates.

Ejiro Evero, Denver Broncos

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DENVER, CO - AUGUST 27: Offensive coordinator Ejiro Evero of the Denver Broncos coaches during the second half of a preseason game against the Minnesota Vikings at Empower Field At Mile High on August 27, 2022 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Tafoya/Getty Images)

A disconnect exists in regard to this year's version of the Denver Broncos. The offense has pretty much been a disaster for most of the season, while the defense is counted among the league's best.

Ejiro Evero's candidacy to become an NFL head coach shouldn't be affected, just because Russell Wilson and Nathaniel Hackett's offense can't get on the same page. Currently, the Broncos rank second in overall defense.

The degree of difficulty of Evero's job increased beyond previous obstacles, too, since the organization chose to trade the team's best pass-rusher, Bradley Chubb, prior to Tuesday's deadline.

Aside from the improvement the unit experienced under Evero's direction this season—his first season as a defensive coordinator—two qualities should endear him to his players upon taking over as a head coach.

First, accountability is often the mark of a good locker room. It applies to the coaches and players. After a surprising Week 1 loss to the Seattle Seahawks, Evero addressed the mistakes he made during his first game as a play-caller.

"To see a leader, a coach in that room, take accountability for himself, it allows you to drop your guard and say, 'OK, I want to play for this dude,'" Chubb told The Athletic's Nick Kosmider. “You know he’s going to put us in the right position and have our best interests at heart because he knows when he messes up, knows when he’s doing good. It’s cool to see."

Secondly, delegation is a vital component of any head coach's success. Too many first-time head coaches feel they need to do everything instead of relying on those they've hired to do their jobs. Evero already understands his success depends on those around him.

"I've just got an amazing support from a lot of talented coaches who've helped build this system together," Evero told reporters. "From Day 1, I told the players that this isn't my defense—this is our defense."

The right mentality to be the de facto CEO of a franchise is just as important as a thorough understanding of the game.

Jonathan Gannon, Philadelphia Eagles

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PHILADELPHIA, PA - OCTOBER 03: Defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon of the Philadelphia Eagles calls a play against the Kansas City Chiefs at Lincoln Financial Field on October 3, 2021 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

Jonathan Gannon personifies the current trend of being more patient and methodical with his defensive approach.

As NBC Sports' Reuben Frank noted, the Eagles defense has allowed the fewest plays (15) of at least 20 yards. The same can be said of chunk plays (three) over 30 yards. As a result, Philadelphia ranks second in the league by allowing a meager 4.7 yards per play.

The Eagles are always wary of where they can be beaten deep and adjust to ensure it doesn't happen.

"Certain situations, you see I call the game with that in mind," Gannon told Frank. "There's a stress, and there's a strength of every call. I think our players have done a really good job of knowing that if a stress point of a call is an explosive play, they play it that way. They're not going to gamble and guess or be super aggressive in certain calls because they know they don't have help, and they can't play like that."

The players' understanding of those stress points speaks well of Gannon and his staff. Communication is an important aspect of success.

"I think he'd be awesome [as a head coach]," linebacker T.J. Edwards said in January. "I think he's a guy who's a great leader in terms of when he's up there talking, you know exactly what he's talking about. He gets his message across very clear."

One difficulty some defensive coordinators-turned-head coaches endure is building a genuine relationship with their quarterback. While defenses may be performing better, the NFL is still a quarterback-driven league.

How they're set up for success is vital to any organization. In Gannon's case, he built a bond with Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts based on both sides getting better.

"I like to see how, especially a defensive guy, how does he view defense?" Hurts told reporters. "How he calls certain things. How he sees the game."

"I like to ask [Gannon], 'well, how would you try to stop me?' Not gonna get into what he said, but those are things that are valuable for me. And I think that allows me to grow. ... He's been doing great things all year and kind of get in his head and kind of see how he sees it."

Leslie Frazier, Buffalo Bills

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ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK - OCTOBER 30: Buffalo Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier is seen prior to the game against the Green Bay Packers at Highmark Stadium on October 30, 2022 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images)

The list of possible head coaching getting a second chance at running the show starts with Leslie Frazier.

After a disappointing three-year, full-time stint with the Minnesota Vikings, where the team finished with one playoff appearance and an 18-29-1 record, Frazier believes he's ready for another shot.

"I'd be lying if I told you that I felt like it would take this long to have that opportunity come along, especially after some of the success and particularly the most recent success we've had in Buffalo," Frazier said during an interview on the AP Pro Football Podcast (h/t Pro Football Talk's Michael David Smith).

"So it's discouraging in some ways, but you just have to be able to control what you can control. I'm going to do the very best I can and help us to have another good defense in 2022 and help the Buffalo Bills win as many games as we can and put us in a position to compete for the world championship."

He's done so. Currently, the Bills, who are the AFC's best squad, own the league's third-best defense, despite key injuries to Micah Hyde, Tre'Davious White and Jordan Poyer.

Frazier took over as the Bills' defensive coordinator in 2017 when Sean McDermott became the head coach. During the last four-and-a-half seasons, Buffalo hasn't been counted among the league's top-three defenses only once.

Being a defensive-mind coach is one thing, but Frazier is also an older option. He'll turn 64 before the 2024 campaign begins. Sometimes an experienced, level-headed coach is exactly what a team needs.

"I think a lot of people are hiring these young, offensive gurus, and that’s all well and good,” McDermott told The Buffalo News' Ryan O'Halloran. "But at the end of the day, it’s a leadership job as opposed to a play-calling job, and Leslie is very mature and not only understands the defensive side, but has a great feel for what he wants offensively.

"Everything Leslie does is with a foundation of respect built into it, and that comes from the person he is and his high level of integrity, but he also played, and he can add that to the mix of, 'Hey, what does a player really need in this situation?'"

The NFL is supposed to be meritocracy, and Frazier earned the right to be a head coach for a second time.

Raheem Morris, Los Angeles Rams

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INGLEWOOD, CA - SEPTEMBER 08: Los Angeles Rams defensive coach Raheem Morris during the Buffalo Bills game versus the Los Angeles Rams on September 8, 2022, at Sofi Stadium in Inglewood, CA. (Photo by Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Raheem Morris became a head coach before he turned 33 years old. Unsurprisingly he wasn't ready for the responsibility. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers posted a 17-31 record during his three seasons.

Times have changed for the 46-year-old coach.

Aside from a stint as the Atlanta Falcons interim head coach upon Dan Quinn's firing, Morris returned to his roots coaching defensive backs then taking over as the defensive coordinator of the Los Angeles Rams.

"He's going to be a head coach again—no question about it," Rams head coach McVay told Andscape's Jason Reid.

"He's such a special leader, such a special coach. And when you think about the things that a great head coach does—has command over the game, command over a room, the ability to connect with a bunch of different people—Raheem does all of that. He just has great ability to lead, teach, motivate, inspire. He checks every single one of those boxes."

Morris walked into a situation where the Rams already held the league's No. 1 defense. The effort led to Brandon Staley becoming the Los Angeles Chargers' head man. Morris took the mentality of "don't fix what ain't broke" and added his own wrinkles to the Rams' scheme.

As NFL Next Gen Stats noted three weeks ago, the Rams play more zone coverage than any other defense. Comparatively, Staley's Chargers weren't even in the top five, even though his philosophy is predicated on using lighter boxes to drop more men into coverage.

Furthermore, Morris' experience has allowed him to become a teacher who can reach and improve the league's best.

"Just this one year (2021), he's taught me more about the game. How to look at the game and how offenses can scheme different things up and how, honestly, different games can be played on defense," three-time first-team All-Pro Jalen Ramsey told The Ringer's Kaelen Jones in February.

"[He taught me] a lot more than I'd ever learned in previous years combined. It's just been great for me evolving into even more of a leader in the secondary on the team as well. He's been great for my development. Great support, great leader."

Maybe the McVay rub doesn't just include offensive assistants. Morris should follow Staley and start a trend with the Rams' defensive coordinators landing head coaching gigs.

Dan Quinn, Dallas Cowboys

AP Photo/Ashley Landis

Dallas Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn speaks to reporters at the NFL football team's practice facility in Oxnard, Calif. Wednesday, Aug. 3, 2022. (AP Photo/Ashley Landis)

Dan Quinn is a rare instance where his previous failure as a head coach hasn't tarnished his candidacy for other jobs. Most coaches need to rehabilitate their images and prove worthy of getting a second chance.

Quinn meanwhile became the Dallas Cowboys' defensive coordinator after being fired and quickly became a hot name again based on his performance in said role.

He wasn't a terrible head coach in the first place. Quinn spent five-plus seasons leading the Atlanta Falcons, with two playoff berths and an appearance in Super Bowl LI. He may still be in that position had the Falcons not crumbled and lost a 28-3 second-half lead to the New England Patriots.

The 52-year-old coach actually leading a successful squad brings different qualities to the table compared to other candidates. For example, Quinn knows how to handle star players.

He did so in Atlanta with quarterback Matt Ryan and wide receiver Julio Jones. He's doing the same with the reigning NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year, Micah Parsons.

"He was talking to me about plays I can make if I just use my speed, just knowing that's my superpower," Parsons told The Athletic's Jon Machota.

"We kind of had that father-son talk. He challenged me, and I told him, 'If you challenge me, I'll never let you down.' Stuff like that, I credit to Q because he's a person that means a lot to me, and I just hate to let him down. When I'm out there, I try to give everything I got for him."

The appreciation for what Quinn brings to an organization extends beyond his players. Yes, the Cowboys currently have a top-10 defense and lead the league with 33 sacks. The unit has also improved by surrendering 37.5 fewer yards per game this season.

But those within and outside the franchise know how good of a coach Quinn is.

"He's very qualified," Cowboys owners Jerry Jones said of his defensive coordinator " ... If I didn't have a coach, I would have been interviewing him for coach."

Former Atlanta Falcons quarterbacks coach and current Green Bay Packers head coach Matt LaFleur said back in 2020, "I learned so much from DQ just in terms of allowing the guys to come to work and have fun, have a blast.

"We are so fortunate to be in the position that we are in. He was the first guy that I was really around that embraced that style of environment, and that has played a big impact just on how we go about our business here with the Green Bay Packers."

It's difficult to imagine Quinn not being a head coach again at this time next year.