Ranking the Chances for Every MLB Team to Land Mets' Jacob deGrom in Free Agency
Unless he reverses course and decides not to exercise the opt-out clause in his contract with the New York Mets, Jacob deGrom is about to get capital-p Paid.
As for which team will be the one to sign the two-time Cy Young Award winner in free agency, what's say we weigh all of their chances?
We've done so in the form of a simple ranking from No. 30 all the way down to No. 1. This involved considering three factors that are sure to influence the 34-year-old ace's decision-making in free agency:
- Spending Capacity: Because chances are that deGrom will be eyeing Max Scherzer's three-year, $130 million contract with the Mets as a model for his next deal.
- Need: As in, just how could the team in question use a fastball-slider maestro with a 2.05 ERA over the last five seasons?
- Contention Outlook: As deGrom is an aging pitcher who's had some less-than-secret health issues in the last two seasons, teams should really only go after him if they're an immediate or near-future threat to win the World Series.
As we see them, we'll count deGrom's bottom 25 fits by groups and then the top five one at a time.
30-24: Not Gonna Happen
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30. Oakland Athletics
Maybe break ground on that new stadium or move to Las Vegas, and then we'll talk.
29. Pittsburgh Pirates
A mere $39 million is the team's most lavish free-agent expenditure, so "when Bob Nutting spends" is no different from "when pigs fly."
28. Cincinnati Reds
They haven't been totally unwilling to spend in the past, but the present is kind of a different story. Plus, why would any pitcher willingly sign up to pitch at Great American Ball Park?
27. Kansas City Royals
They need to get their house in order after firing Dayton Moore and Mike Matheny, and even then the franchise's first nine-figure deal doesn't figure to be forthcoming.
26. Tampa Bay Rays
Speaking strictly baseball-wise? Love this fit. Love it. But the Rays have never spent more than $30 million on a free agent, so...yeah, next.
25. Cleveland Guardians
This is another fun fit, but they only just did their first $100 million contract and deGrom isn't needed in a rotation that has Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie up top.
24. Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers might have around $20 million worth of salary space to fill this winter, but that's not close to enough for deGrom. Besides, they have a greater need for bats than arms.
23-17: Probably Not Gonna Happen
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23. Miami Marlins
Even if Bruce Sherman finally decides to invest some real money in free agency, a run at deGrom wouldn't make a whole lot of sense. Whereas Miami has starters in abundance, it sorely lacks impact hitters for an offense that was the National League's worst in 2022.
22. Washington Nationals
Perhaps there's a possibility of the Nationals' sale going through in the near future and its new owners deciding to celebrate with a series of big splashes—the likes of which aren't alien to the franchise—but there are more realistic things to count on than this.
21. Los Angeles Angels
The Angels will soon be up for sale in their own right, which makes it hard to make prognostications for their offseason. Maybe there's a version of it in which Arte Moreno opts to go all-in one last time, but it's not something anyone should anticipate.
20. Colorado Rockies
It would be interesting to see if deGrom could sustain his fastball-slider domination even at Coors Field, but it's hard to imagine him getting that chance even if he was open to it. The Rockies' payroll would seem to be maxed out.
19. Seattle Mariners
Jacob deGrom in the Pacific Northwest is a fun idea, but not a very practical one. The Mariners' payroll is already loaded, and ditto for a starting rotation headed by Luis Castillo, Robbie Ray, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby.
18. Toronto Blue Jays
DeGrom in Canada is also a fun idea, and the fit here is slightly better than in Seattle on account of how the Blue Jays' rotation doesn't go quite as deep. Trouble is, they're already slated to spend more in 2023 than they did in 2022.
17. St. Louis Cardinals
We were eyeing the Cardinals as a fit for deGrom in September, but that was when we could fairly wonder if Adam Wainwright would be back in 2023. Not anymore, as the 41-year-old's new $17.5 million deal leaves little space for deGrom in St. Louis' payroll and rotation.
16-11: Could Happen
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16. Detroit Tigers
The Tigers' payroll projections for 2023 come out to $125 million, which falls about $75 million short of the club's payroll pinnacles from 2016 and 2017. Ergo, it doesn't seem like a reach to expect a splash or two from Detroit this winter.
But of all the things the Tigers could prioritize this winter, an ace starter shouldn't be near the top of the list. What they need is a veritable army of bats for an offense that scored a league-low 557 runs in 2022.
15. Arizona Diamondbacks
Could the D-backs pull another Zack Greinke-level surprise on everyone? We're not ruling it out, especially knowing that the team may have room to add as much as $40 million to its 2023 payroll.
If not for those reasons, though, Arizona like a long shot from deGrom's perspective. If he wants to make a ton of money and win, then he can do better than joining up with a team that has baseball's fourth-worst winning percentage over the last three seasons.
14. Chicago White Sox
The White Sox have never done a $100 million deal in free agency, yet they may have a window to do so this winter. Between Dallas Keuchel ($18 million) and José Abreu ($19.7 million), the club has some big salaries coming off its books.
Realistically, though, the White Sox may only have about $20 million to spend. They would thus have to stretch themselves for deGrom, which doesn't seem likely given that they can otherwise bet on bouncebacks from Lucas Giolito and Lance Lynn in 2023.
13. Philadelphia Phillies
It's largely because of the Zack Wheeler-Aaron Nola duo that the Phillies are in the World Series right now. The thought of a Wheeler-Nola-deGrom duo is even more tantalizing, and it's not completely unrealistic in context of how much salary will soon come free in Philly.
And yet, the Phillies signing deGrom would feel more like them simply needling the Mets than it would of them actually filling a need. It's also not as if they don't have real ones to take care of, particularly at shortstop.
12. Atlanta
Atanta is worth taking seriously as a suitor for deGrom if for no other reason than they tend to like local guys and he grew up not far away in North Florida. There's also, of course, that July tweet from ESPN's Buster Olney:
However, this was before Atlanta dished out $379 million worth of contracts to Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, Charlie Morton and Spencer Strider. With its 2023 payroll already projected to match this year's payroll, Atlanta might even be hard-pressed to re-sign Dansby Swanson.
11. Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox sure could have used a starter like deGrom this season, specifically as their rotation was putting up an AL-high 5.45 ERA after June 26. With a $73 million gap between their 2022 expenditures and 2023 commitments, might they go get one?
We're far from a firm "no" on this one, but a big bet on a pitcher as old and fragile as deGrom wouldn't jive with chief baseball officer's Chaim Bloom's tendency for risk-aversion. Plus, his priorities should be re-signing Xander Bogaerts and extending Rafael Devers.
10-6: Very Well May Happen
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10. Chicago Cubs
Though they lost 88 games overall, the Cubs did turn a corner in going 39-31 after the All-Star break. With their payroll still well below the franchise's peak of $204 million in 2019, it seems likely that they'll will try to keep the momentum going this winter.
The Cubs have interest in deGrom, according to David Kaplan of NBC Sports Chicago (h/t Brett Taylor of Bleacher Nation), though it doesn't sound like he's a priority. That tracks with how the North Siders have bigger needs in their lineup.
9. Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles as big spenders in free agency? This idea was unimaginable for a few years there while the club slashed payroll and focused on rebuilding amid five straight losing seasons between 2017 and 2021.
Well, now they're coming off an encouraging 83-win campaign in 2022. General manager Mike Elias is looking to "significantly escalate" his payroll, which currently has nothing in the way of long-term money. Plus, there's a clear need for an impact starter here.
8. Minnesota Twins
DeGrom signing with the Twins would be a major surprise, to be sure, yet it would be one the likes of which we've seen before. It was only last year that the Twins signed Carlos Correa to a three-year, $105.3 million pact.
With Correa set to opt out of that deal, could the Twins simply reallocate the funds to deGrom? It's at least possible in theory, and the club's starting pitching shortcomings might even push it to probable.
7. Houston Astros
The thought of a high-velocity, high-spin hurler like deGrom joining the Astros would surely elicit a Kurtz-ian "the horror, the horror" reaction from their rivals. And with Justin Verlander likely to decline his 2023 player option, Houston will soon have an opening for an ace.
Is re-signing Verlander the more likely course of action for the Astros? Well, yeah. But let's not discount the possibility of the market putting the two veteran aces in the same price bracket, nor the possibility that Houston would prefer to have deGrom in that event.
6. Texas Rangers
Highlighted by $500 million worth of deals for Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, the Rangers spent more than twice as much in free agency as any other team last offseason. With their payroll nonetheless slated to drop, might they go back to the well this winter?
If they do, an ace starter would make for a sensible target after the team finished 25th in starting pitcher rWAR in 2022. It thus wasn't terribly surprising when Jon Heyman of the New York Post tabbed deGrom as a target for Texas in September.
5. New York Yankees
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Why deGrom Fits Here
First of all, let's assume that the Yankees aren't about to simply shrug off their embarrassing sweep at the hands of the Astros in the American League Championship Series.
Why would they do that when they're perfectly capable of securing a game-changing haul of talent on the offseason market? Not just because they're the Yankees, mind you, but also because they're looking at a $57 million gap between what they spent in 2022 and what they're currently projected to spend in 2023.
That's more than enough to accommodate deGrom, who's the best co-ace for Gerrit Cole that the Yankees could ask for.
Why deGrom Doesn't Fit Here
Among other reasons, deGrom simply isn't going to be the Yankees' top priority this winter.
We know who will be, and his name is Aaron Judge. Though it figures to cost north of $35 million per year over seven or eight years to do so, there's just no way that the Yankees aren't going to pursue a new contract with their 62-home run slugger.
Courtesy of Heyman, there's also some chatter out there that deGrom may not want to stay in New York. Hence once source telling him: “The Yankees aren’t going after deGrom.”
4. San Francisco Giants
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Why deGrom Fits Here
The Giants are already looking at a $30 million difference between their 2022 payroll and their projected payroll for 2023, and that figure will only grow when Carlos Rodón declines his $22.5 million player option.
The Giants are thus going to have both the need and the means to add deGrom this winter, and, well, maybe it's that simple?
Maybe it is, though we also shouldn't overlook how San Francisco's standing in the National League West could influence its offseason decision-making. After finishing 30 games behind the Dodgers and eight games behind the Padres, they have some catching up to do.
Why deGrom Doesn't Fit Here
It may be easier and cheaper for the Giants to pursue a new deal with Rodón, for which president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi says there's "mutual interest."
Otherwise, the Giants also figure to mainly be preoccupied with adding talent on the position player side of things.
Zaidi himself said that the team wants add "players up the middle." Randy Miller of NJ.com isn't alone in highlighting Judge as a real possibility, though Bob Nightengale of USA Today has hinted that the Giants will also be in on the winter's class of prized shortstops.
3. San Diego Padres
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Why deGrom Fits Here
Because as much or more than any other GM in baseball, A.J. Preller likes shiny, new toys. What further justification do you need?
OK, well, how about the fact that San Diego is also going to have holes to fill in its rotation this winter? Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove and Blake Snell are under control, but Sean Manaea and Mike Clevinger are ticketed for the open market.
To be sure, there's only a $27 million gap between what the Padres' 2022 expenditures and what's on tap for 2023. But after falling just three wins short of the World Series, maybe the team's ownership will be willing to push the payroll envelope even further than it already has.
Why deGrom Doesn't Fit Here
If nothing else, that last point might be far-fetched.
Per Ronald Blum of the Associated Press, the Padres are slated to pay luxury tax penalties for the second year in a row. That means a 30 percent tax on overages.
That only means an $800,000 penalty for now, but it positions the Padres for a 50 percent tax on overages in 2023. Perhaps more depending on how far beyond the $233 million threshold they go. As such, ownership might aim for a reset by staying under that threshold.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
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Why deGrom Fits Here
The Dodgers may have won 111 games in the regular season, but their subsequent defeat in the National League Division Series sure seems like the kind of thing that would put them in the mood to go scorched earth during the offseason.
And as it happens, they're going to need at least one starter.
With Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney set for free agency and Walker Buehler sidelined for 2023 after having Tommy John surgery, that should perhaps read "at least" one starter. In any case, the opening for deGrom isn't hard to spot.
Why deGrom Doesn't Fit Here
Because he seems intent on returning for another season in 2023, the path of least resistance before the Dodgers involves simply re-signing Kershaw.
Perhaps that alone wouldn't necessarily take them out of the deGrom sweepstakes, but it could make him less of a priority in the face of their other needs.
Those include a shortstop spot that's about to be vacated by Trea Turner, plus an opening at third base by way of an option for Justin Turner that almost certainly won't vest. If the Dodgers non-tender 2019 NL MVP Cody Bellinger, they'll also need a center fielder.
1. New York Mets
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Why deGrom Fits Here
For one thing, the Mets are the only team he's ever known. And despite the previously mentioned whispers about him not being especially fond of New York, Zack Wheeler told Mike Puma of the New York Post that his former teammate "is happy there."
For another thing, there wouldn't seem to be much question that the Mets can afford deGrom.
Steve Cohen is the richest owner in baseball, and he showed as much in authorizing a league-high $282.7 million payroll in 2022. Plus, the Mets wouldn't have to go that far beyond the $34.5 million they already have earmarked for deGrom in 2023 to re-sign him.
Why deGrom Doesn't Fit Here
According to Heyman, deGrom is actually the least of the team's free-agent priorities. He says the Mets are going to draw a line, perhaps below $40 million per year.
Take that and put it on top of the notion that deGrom may prefer to play somewhere other than New York and, yeah, a new deal probably isn't a fait accompli.
It nonetheless bears noting that such things don't square with what Cohen said in August about doing "whatever we can" to retain deGrom. If he holds to that, the two sides will probably end up sticking together.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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