Buying or Selling Every MLB Team's Playoff Odds with 10 Weeks Remaining
Adios, MLB All-Star break, and hola, full-speed-ahead mode to October. With just a little over 10 weeks remaining until the postseason, it's time for another edition of buying and selling MLB playoff odds.
One critical point before we dive in: We are buying or selling each team's postseason odds, which is not the same as simply picking who we think will make the playoffs.
For instance, buying Cleveland at +220 and selling Toronto at -500 doesn't necessarily mean we like the Guardians to finish ahead of the Blue Jays. What it does mean is that the idea of betting $45.45 to win $100 if Cleveland makes the postseason is more palatable than the idea of risking $500 to win $100 if Toronto makes the postseason.
This also means that the buys and sells will not necessarily equal the number of playoff spots available in each league, though we did unintentionally end up close. (If all of our buys hit and all of our sells miss the postseason, it would mean seven playoff teams in the NL and six in the AL.)
Teams are listed in ascending order of DraftKings postseason odds.
The 13 Teams We Don't Need to Discuss Here
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Without this section, there would inevitably be a few, "Hey, where are the (insert team that has either a 99 percent or 0.1 percent chance of making the postseason)?!" comments. So, here are the 13 teams whose postseason fate has effectively already been determined.
Definitely Making the Playoffs: Yankees, Dodgers, Astros, Mets
While it's possible the Padres could overtake the Dodgers in the NL West and much more possible that the Braves could bypass the Mets in the NL East, these are the four teams with a consensus postseason chance of greater than 99.0 percent from Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and FiveThirtyEight.
On DraftKings, you still can bet on both the Mets and Dodgers to make the playoffs at -20000—a $100 bet would pay out 50 cents—but both the Astros and Yankees have already been taken off the board.
And before you ask how anyone can possibly have that much faith in the Mets to avoid a collapse, please note they have an 8.5-game cushion over the Phillies and Cardinals for the last spot in the NL, and they play more than half (37 of 69) of their remaining games against the combined "force" of the Nationals (nine), Marlins (eight), Pirates (seven), Rockies (four), Reds (three), Cubs (three) and A's (three).
They'll be just fine.
Definitely Missing the Playoffs: A's, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Nationals, Pirates, Reds, Rockies, Royals, Tigers
Each of these nine teams has a less than 1 percent chance of making the playoffs on each of the three sites noted above. The only one that DraftKings will even let you still bet on making/missing the postseason is Detroit at +5000 for Yes and -20000 for No—and even that is only because of the lack of faith in the Twins atop the AL Central.
Of the nine, the 43-50 Rockies theoretically have the best chance at pulling off a miracle. However, needing to play 52 of their remaining 69 games against teams that are .500 or better kills that dream. It sure would be something if they could sneak in by sweeping the season-ending six-game (!) road series against the Dodgers, though.
Texas Rangers
2 of 18
Record: 42-49, 18.0 GB in AL West, 7.0 GB for last WC
Postseason Chances: BR 3.0%, FG 1.0%, FiveThirtyEight 2%
DraftKings Postseason Odds: +2500
Buying or Selling? Selling
Glass half full: The Texas Rangers have a run differential of plus-seven and should be a .500 team. And after getting out to terrible starts, big offseason acquisitions Marcus Semien and Jon Gray have both been excellent since the beginning of June. Those two guys, along with Corey Seager, Martin Perez and Adolis Garcia, could pace a strong second half.
Glass half empty: Even with Semien and Gray catching fire, the Rangers have gone 18-25 in their last 43 games, they can't win close games to save their lives (5-20 in one-run affairs) and their remaining schedule is fairly brutal.
Odds of +2500 isn't terrible value for a team only seven games back of a playoff spot, but the Rangers would need to hurdle five teams just to get up to the No. 6 seed. Even if they buy ahead of the Aug. 2 trade deadline, that much leapfrogging is quite unlikely.
Los Angeles Angels
3 of 18
Record: 39-53, 21.5 GB in AL West, 10.5 GB for last WC
Postseason Chances: BR 1.0%, FG 1.6%, FiveThirtyEight 2%
DraftKings Postseason Odds: +2200
Buying or Selling? Selling
Despite having the worst record in baseball since May 15 (15-40), the Los Angeles Angels are likely going to at least give it the ol' college try and won't sell at the trade deadline.
They only have six games remaining against the Astros compared to 12 against the A's and 10 against the Rangers. And throwing in the towel on this season would require having a difficult decision about whether to trade Shohei Ohtani, who will hit free agency after next season.
But, no, the Angels aren't making the playoffs. Even at "Albert Pujols to win the Home Run Derby" betting odds, it's not worth it.
Their once-potent offense has been a dumpster fire. They scored more runs in their first 37 games (182) than they have scored in their past 55 games (181).
Anthony Rendon (wrist) is out for the year. Taylor Ward looks nothing like the phenom he was before his early-June hamstring injury. 2021 sensation Jared Walsh has fallen completely off the map. Mike Trout is on the IL and was putting up career-worst marks in K/BB ratio, batting average and OBP before the rib/back injury anyway.
It's pretty much Ohtani and sometimes Luis Rengifo or bust, and it's usually the latter.
This team should be better than it is. But Trout and Co. will miss the postseason yet again.
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Baltimore Orioles
4 of 18
Record: 46-46, 17.0 GB in AL East, 3.5 GB for last WC
Postseason Chances: BR 7.6%, FG 1.5%, FiveThirtyEight 5%
DraftKings Postseason Odds: +1500
Buying or Selling? Selling
The postseason projections are all over the map for the Baltimore Orioles. FanGraphs suggests they should be somewhere around +7000, while Baseball Reference puts the Orioles closer to +1200.
And on Thursday morning, Baseball Reference had the O's at 13.0 percent. (What the heck changed Thursday aside from the Rangers gaining half a game on everyone in the wild-card mix, I have no idea.)
The problem is we have no clue if Peter Angelos and Co. will go for it, or how aggressively.
In theory, the Orioles have copious amounts of room in the budget to make some big splashes ahead of the trade deadline. Their payroll is an MLB-low $45.8 million. (Yes, even lower than the A's.) But in 2016, they had the 10th-highest Opening Day payroll at $147.9 million, per Business Insider.
That isn't to say they've got $102.1 million hiding somewhere in the couch cushions, waiting to be found and spent in the next 10 days. However, they could loosen the purse strings a little in pursuit of a rare postseason berth.
There's also the whole double-edged sword of the remaining schedule.
The O's have 11 games left against the Red Sox and 15 to come against the Blue Jays—as well as a combined 20 games against the Astros, Yankees and Rays. All those battles mean a lot of direct opportunities to chase down the AL East teams ahead of them. But aside from the Rockies and Diamondbacks, it's also probably the most difficult remaining schedule that any team needs to face.
As fun as it was for the Orioles to storm into the All-Star break with wins in 16 of their last 23 games, it's worth noting that most of it came at the expense of the sub-.500 Angels, Rangers and Cubs. Once the schedule stiffens and they inevitably penny-pinch their way through the trade deadline, the carriage will turn back into a pumpkin.
Miami Marlins
5 of 18
Record: 43-49, 14.5 GB in NL East, 6.0 GB for last WC
Postseason Chances: BR 1.4%, FG 2.3%, FiveThirtyEight 2%
DraftKings Postseason Odds: +1300
Buying or Selling? Selling
In late May, I loved Miami as a sleeper to make the playoffs. I may or may not be (but definitely am) in possession of a depressing "Marlins +600 to reach the postseason" ticket.
At the time, they were seven games below .500 but had a plus-10 run differential. In a division where everyone except for the Mets was floundering, they seemed like a prime candidate to surge into a wild-card spot.
Since then, they have had the fifth-best record in the NL (25-24), but with a negative-30 run differential. And in spite of that unlikely winning record, they lost ground to the Braves, Mets and Phillies in the NL East and merely kept pace with the Cardinals in the wild-card hunt.
Translation: Not good enough. And with a starting rotation that gets ugly in a hurry after Sandy Alcantara and Pablo Lopez, prolonged winning streaks have been next to impossible to cobble together. (Except when facing the woeful Nationals, against whom the Marlins are 12-1.)
If they're going to make things interesting, it needs to start now. In their first 17 games of the second half of the season, the Fish get seven games against the Reds, three each against the Cubs, Pirates and Mets and the home game against the Rangers already lost on Thursday.
Even if they win at least 13 of those games, though, the 22 games left against the Braves, Dodgers and Mets figure to be their undoing.
Cleveland Guardians
6 of 18
Record: 46-44, 2.0 GB in AL Central, 2.5 GB for last WC
Postseason Chances: BR 31.5%, FG 28.9%, FiveThirtyEight 29%
DraftKings Postseason Odds: +220
Buying or Selling? Buying
This is the toughest call of them all.
The Cleveland Guardians' odds aren't great. All three projections and DraftKings put them slightly worse than a 1-in-3 chance of reaching the playoffs. And opening the second half on an 11-game road trip against the White Sox, Red Sox and Rays could send them into a tailspin ahead of the trade deadline.
Even if they crash and burn through that stretch, the Guardians won't be sellers, since they have nothing to sell. Their only impending free agents are Austin Hedges and Bryan Shaw, the latter of whom has a $4 million club option with no buyout for next season. And both of those guys have a negative Baseball Reference WAR.
However, that 11-game stretch will go a long way toward determining whether Cleveland is a buyer or a bystander.
If they do end up as buyers and can bring in a major upgrade at catcher such as Willson Contreras, a corner outfielder such as Andrew Benintendi or David Peralta and/or a respectable back-of-the-rotation starter, that +220 could turn into a -220 in a hurry, because they're a decent piece or three away from becoming the team to beat in the AL Central.
San Francisco Giants
7 of 18
Record: 48-44, 13.5 GB in NL West, 1.0 GB for last NL WC
Postseason Chances: BR 46.7%, FG 49.1%, FiveThirtyEight 35%
DraftKings Postseason Odds: +135
Buying or Selling? Buying
In the Red Sox, White Sox, Twins, Phillies, Cardinals and San Francisco Giants, there are half a dozen coin flips. Of the bunch, San Francisco is the only one getting better than coin-flip odds from DraftKings.
That makes the Giants worth buying.
The big question is: Can they get and stay relatively healthy for a change?
We know Anthony DeSclafani (ankle) isn't coming back this season, and the odds of Matthew Boyd (elbow) pitching in 2022 seem to get slimmer by the day.
But the batting order is where the injury bug has really been a nuisance. There have only been seven games all season with each of Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Evan Longoria and Joc Pederson in the starting lineup. And with Crawford on the IL with a knee injury, there's no telling when the eighth such game will come.
In spite of that, the offense hasn't suffered. Only the Yankees, Dodgers and Braves scored more runs in the first half, and the Giants actually finished ahead of the Braves on a per-game basis. Still, they could get even more potent if they could occasionally get four of their highest-paid hitters out there at the same time.
Beyond that variable, the 13 games left against the Dodgers are a little terrifying, though 13 against the Diamondbacks, 10 against the Rockies and seven against the Cubs sure do help soften that blow. If they take care of business in those 30 games against basement dwellers, they'll be in good shape.
Minnesota Twins
8 of 18
Record: 50-44, 2.0 game lead in AL Central, would be 0.5 GB for third WC
Postseason Chances: BR 52.7%, FG 47.7%, FiveThirtyEight 51%
DraftKings Postseason Odds: -105
Buying or Selling? Selling
Save for letting Cleveland surge into first place for a few hours in late June, the Minnesota Twins have done a fine job of treading water atop the AL Central for nearly three full months.
However, since reaching a high point of 11 games over .500 on May 24, the Twins have been slowly sinking.
They've had neither a four-game winning streak nor a four-game losing streak in their past 51 games, but they have gone 23-28 during that time. They really shot themselves in the foot with a 3-7 record (1-4 against the White Sox) in the final 10 games before the All-Star break, giving both Cleveland and Chicago new life and turning the AL Central back into a legitimate three-horse race.
And while we will forever stan for Byron Buxton, when push comes to shove, is this pitching staff going to be enough?
Probably not, and that's why we're selling the Twins at slightly better (for the house) than even odds.
Per FanGraphs, the Twins are 24th in pitching WAR, and the Rangers and Cardinals are just ahead. But while the Rangers at least have two solid starters and two great relievers, and the Cardinals have a solid trio atop their rotation to go along with their pair of closers in the pen, the Twins are just kind of mediocre across the board, save for flame-throwing rookie reliever Jhoan Duran.
Barring an unexpected willingness to spend big at the trade deadline—Minnesota's payroll is already north of $137 million and there's not a ton to offer in this farm system—there's not a whole lot it can do address the fact that it doesn't have a closer and has a rotation consisting of five No. 3/No. 4 starters.
Boston Red Sox
9 of 18
Record: 48-45, 15.5 GB in AL East, 2.0 GB for third AL WC
Postseason Chances: BR 31.6%, FG 38.7%, FiveThirtyEight 42%
DraftKings Postseason Odds: -115
Buying or Selling? Selling
Of the 17 teams that we're buying or selling, the Boston Red Sox might be the easiest sell.
That isn't to say the Red Sox have no hope of making the playoffs. They are clearly a viable candidate. But their consensus Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and FiveThirtyEight postseason odds put them at a 37.5 percent chance while the DraftKings line puts them at 53.5 percent.
That's a substantial divide. You’re getting worse than even odds on something that you should be getting around +170 odds on. Maybe this one cashes, but make bets like that on a regular basis and you’ll be broke in a hurry.
That said, less than a month ago, -115 on Boston making the playoffs would have been a "Buy! Buy! Buy!"
At the end of play on June 26, the Red Sox were 42-31, sitting pretty for the No. 4 seed and 8.5 games ahead of the Seattle Mariners. But between the M's catching fire and the Red Sox going 6-14 with a negative-47 run differential in their last 20 games, Boston missing the playoffs is a strong possibility.
Losing Chris Sale to a broken finger just two games after waiting more than three months for his season debut certainly didn't help matters. Unless the Red Sox can trade for a couple of marquee pitchers, getting back into the top three in the AL East will be a challenge. (They don't need to finish top-three in the AL East, but all three wild cards coming from the same division is unlikely.)
Philadelphia Phillies
10 of 18
Record: 49-43, 8.5 GB in NL East, Tied for third NL WC
Postseason Chances: BR 75.6%, FG 46.0%, FiveThirtyEight 68%
DraftKings Postseason Odds: -115
Buying or Selling? Buying
While Boston at -115 is a rather terrible value, the Philadelphia Phillies at -115 might be the most generous line on the board.
Firing the manager in the middle of the season almost never works out. The most recent case of a team making a change and then making the playoffs was the Colorado Rockies in 2009, when Jim Tracy replaced Clint Hurdle and the Rockies went 74-42 the rest of the way.
But it sure did spark something in the 2022 Phillies, who are 27-14 under Rob Thompson after their disappointing 22-29 start under Joe Girardi.
Perhaps most impressive is that even losing Bryce Harper to a broken thumb hasn't slowed them down. Including the game in which he got hurt (it was 0-0 at the time, and they went on to win 4-2), they're 12-8 sans the 2015 and 2021 NL MVP.
Sharing a division with both the Braves and Mets has been a challenge, and they do still have 19 games remaining against those NL East foes. But the Phillies also have a combined 40 games left against the Nationals, Marlins, Pirates, Cubs and Reds.
Not only will Philadelphia make the postseason, but +2500 to win the NL East is a wee bit intriguing. (More so than the Rangers at +2500 to make the playoffs, at any rate.)
St. Louis Cardinals
11 of 18
Record: 50-44, 0.5 GB in NL Central, Tied for third NL WC
Postseason Chances: BR 82.9%, FG 52.2%, FiveThirtyEight 62%
DraftKings Postseason Odds: -140
Buying or Selling? Buying
For all the blathering about remaining schedules, this is where it most blatantly plays a factor in our decision.
The St. Louis Cardinals have 68 games remaining, 47 (69.1 percent) of which come against opponents hopelessly out of the playoff hunt. The Cardinals have 11 games left against both the Reds and Cubs, nine against the Pirates, seven against the Nationals, six against the Rockies and three against the Diamondbacks. And for as bad as those teams are, they're going to get easier to beat after their respective trade-deadline fire sales.
They do have a pretty rough eight-game road trip in late September against the Padres, Dodgers and Brewers. If they haven't sealed the deal by then, that could prove problematic.
But as long as they address the No. 4 and No. 5 spots in their rotation ahead of the trade deadline, I like the Cardinals to go something like 44-24 the rest of the way. That will be more than enough to secure a playoff spot—probably as the NL Central champion—and it might even give them the best second-half record in baseball.
(In addition to -140 to make the postseason, the Cards are +150 to win the NL Central. You know, just in case you were wondering.)
Chicago White Sox
12 of 18
Record: 46-46, 3.0 GB in AL Central, 3.5 GB for third WC
Postseason Chances: BR 42.9%, FG 54.1%, FiveThirtyEight 61%
DraftKings Postseason Odds: -140
Buying or Selling? Buying
If forced to make a projection today, I would take the third-place White Sox to win the AL Central.
Save for Yasmani Grandal (who has a back injury and has had an awful season anyway), all 15 current White Sox players making more than $3 million in 2022 are healthy. They're four games over .500 in July. They're probably going to do something positive ahead of the trade deadline, which is no guarantee for the smaller market Twins and Guardians.
Things just seem to be trending in the direction of what was the heavy preseason favorite to win the AL Central.
Still, a -140 line implies a 58.3 percent chance of making the playoffs, which is pretty aggressive for a squad that needs to either leapfrog two teams to win its division or four teams to reach a wild-card spot.
The good news is this offense has sprung to life. From the end of play on June 27 through the All-Star break, only the unstoppable Yankees scored more runs (121) than Chicago's 109. No other team reached triple digits during that time. And it's about darn time. As Chicago has four guys batting north of .300 for the year, it's hard to believe it took more than three months for this team to figure out how to score.
The other good news is—just like the Cardinals—the remaining schedule is very much in Chicago's favor.
Their only games left against the AL East are three at Baltimore. They have 10 more games against the NL West, but seven of those are against the Rockies and Diamondbacks. They have 11 more games against the Royals, nine to come against the Tigers and seven matchups with the A's.
Aside from one series each against Houston, San Diego and Seattle, their only remaining foes with a winning record are the combined 19 games against Cleveland and Minnesota. And as long as they don't allow the Twins to go 7-2 or better or Cleveland to go 8-2 or better in those series, they should win the division.
Seattle Mariners
13 of 18
Record: 51-42, 10.0 GB in AL West, 3.0 games ahead of Boston in AL WC
Postseason Chances: BR 79.5%, FG 67.8%, FiveThirtyEight 70%
DraftKings Postseason Odds: -175
Buying or Selling? Buying
No one is hotter than the Seattle Mariners, and there have only been a handful of cases in the past three decades of a team getting this hot for this long. The Mariners entered the All-Star break on a 14-game winning streak and have gone 22-3 in their last 25 games.
But this is still Seattle we're talking about, and that 16 of those 22 wins were against teams that are .500 or worse.
That isn't meant to discount what the M's accomplished, but between that information and the 20-year postseason drought, you simply have to wonder if the M's have what it takes to finish strong enough to hold off the likes of the Guardians, White Sox, Red Sox and Orioles.
Because business is about to pick up.
Beginning with Friday's game against Houston, 13 of Seattle's first 20 games out of the All-Star break are against the Astros and the Yankees. And the other seven are against the still-grasping-at-postseason-straws Angels and Rangers. They could go straight from 22-3 to something like 6-14 if they're not careful, at which point it would become an uphill battle once again.
But I just cannot, in good faith, bet against Seattle.
A -175 line gives the Mariners an implied 63.6 percent chance of making the playoffs, but Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and FiveThirtyEight put them at a consensus 72.9 percent.
Needing to break through the glass ceiling of that lengthy postseason drought is probably the biggest thing causing that divide, but those three sites suggest the M's should be at -270. We're getting great value here.
Plus, the Mariners keep popping up as a possible candidate to win the Juan Soto sweepstakes. As long as they do something to address the bullpen before the trade deadline, they'll be in great shape. But if they do pull off the Soto miracle, watch this line jump to something like -750 in a heartbeat.
Tampa Bay Rays
14 of 18
Record: 51-41, 12.0 GB in AL East, 3.5 games ahead of Boston in AL WC
Postseason Chances: BR 80.8%, FG 70.2%, FiveThirtyEight 69%
DraftKings Postseason Odds: -225
Buying or Selling? Neither, but if I absolutely must choose, then: Buying
Can this small-market team survive what has been a season-long barrage of injuries?
As with Seattle, the Tampa Bay Rays would be an obvious buy at even odds. But with implied postseason odds of 69.2 percent in a division jam-packed with playoff-caliber teams, the Rays' current state of health is problematic.
Per Spotrac, Tampa Bay exited the All-Star break with nearly as much money on the IL ($41.0 million) as on the active roster ($41.1 million). The Rays finally got Brandon Lowe back after two months on the IL, but that's little consolation for losing all of Wander Franco, Manuel Margot, Shane Baz, Jeffrey Springs and Kevin Kiermaier to the IL in the past month or so.
They're in no position to write checks to fill those voids, but if they're willing to somewhat deplete what is one of the best farm systems in baseball, perhaps they can wheel and deal to replace a good chunk of what they've lost.
Juan Soto to Tampa Bay is far from likely, but maybe they can get Brandon Drury from the Reds, Jose Quintana from the Pirates and/or Whit Merrifield from the Royals.
Even if they make a couple of noteworthy trades, though, their remaining schedule is no walk in the park. There are 36 games left against the AL East, plus six against the Astros late in the season. Considering they likely need to go 40-30 the rest of the way to secure a playoff spot, things could get dicey in a hurry.
Milwaukee Brewers
15 of 18
Record: 50-43, 0.5 games up in NL Central, would be 0.5 games ahead of Philadelphia and St. Louis for third NL WC
Postseason Chances: BR 42.5%, FG 73.9%, FiveThirtyEight 69%
DraftKings Postseason Odds: -390
Buying or Selling? Selling
Yes, I'm selling both the AL Central-leading Twins and the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers.
No, I don't feel great about it.
But -390 on a team that is 18-25 since Memorial Day—a team that entered Friday basically tied for both its division lead and the final wild-card spot—is preposterous.
Corbin Burnes has been awesome all season, and Brandon Woodruff has looked a whole lot better since his month-plus spent on the IL, but the pitching staff as a whole has been a mess lately. Per FanGraphs, Milwaukee ranked 26th in pitching WAR in June and entered the All-Star break ranked 23rd in July.
The homer-happy offense that dominated May has cooled off too. Even with a 19-2 victory over the Pirates on July 1, the Brew Crew has a negative-15 run differential in its last 43 games.
And this is not a deep-pocketed franchise likely to swing big ahead of the trade deadline. Per Cot's Baseball Contracts, Milwaukee's $131.9 million Opening Day payroll was nearly $33 million higher than last year and its highest ever.
Maybe they can convince division rivals Pittsburgh and Cincinnati to send Jose Quintana ($2 million) and Brandon Drury ($0.9 million) their way, but spending room is presumably next to nil.
On top of all that, we've already touched on the fact that St. Louis has the easiest remaining schedule in baseball. Milwaukee's upcoming slate isn't a murderers' row with a combined 36 games to come against the Reds, Pirates, Cubs, Diamondbacks and Rockies, but keeping pace with the Cardinals the rest of the way will be tough.
Even if they don't win the NL Central, they could edge out Philadelphia or San Diego for a wild-card spot. But thanks, no thanks at -390. (+290 on Milwaukee to miss the postseason sure is tempting, though...)
San Diego Padres
16 of 18
Record: 52-42, 10 GB in NL West, 2.0 games ahead of Philadelphia/St. Louis for final NL WC
Postseason Chances: BR 53.6%, FG 77.8%, FiveThirtyEight 70%
DraftKings Postseason Odds: -400
Buying or Selling? Buying
Against my better judgment, I'm going against the metrics here. The Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and FiveThirtyEight consensus is that San Diego has a 67.1 percent chance of reaching the postseason, while the implied odds from the DraftKings line are at 80 percent.
But are the metrics able to account for Fernando Tatis Jr.'s eventual return from a wrist injury? Or the inevitability that the Padres will make a significant acquisition or two before the trade deadline to bolster their lineup?
Because, come on, they're going to make at least a semi-major splash, right?
Willson Contreras, Josh Bell, Andrew Benintendi, Brandon Drury (not at third base, but somewhere) and Ian Happ would all be upgrades for the Padres. It seems like they'll at least get one of those (presumably) available hitters. And they might even win the Juan Soto sweepstakes if they're willing to go all-in on that front.
Even if they do nothing at the deadline, though, there's still a great chance they make the playoffs. Tatis is coming and this starting rotation is rock solid, and while they do have 12 games left against the Dodgers, the remaining schedule isn't that tough. (The combined 22 games against the Nationals, Rockies and Diamondbacks will be a great time to pad the win total.)
Toronto Blue Jays
17 of 18
Record: 50-43, 13.5 GB in AL East, 2.0 games ahead of Boston for final AL WC
Postseason Chances: BR 69.4%, FG 87.7%, FiveThirtyEight 69%
DraftKings Postseason Odds: -500
Buying or Selling? Selling
I'm sorry, but -500?
For a team that just fired manager Charlie Montoyo as some sort of last-ditch effort to stop the bleeding from a woefully disappointing season and a 2-9 start to July?
Sure, the Blue Jays have gone 4-1 since that move, but please don't try to tell me you were impressed by three wins at home over the Kansas City "not good at full strength and were even worse than usual sans 10 players because of Canada's COVID-19 vaccination mandate" Royals.
Toronto would be in the postseason if it started today. It likely will get in, especially if it manages to improve the pitching staff ahead of the trade deadline.
But there's just no way the Blue Jays should be getting "roll anything aside from a six on a six-sided die and you win" odds of making the playoffs. Not with this bullpen, and not in this division with 27 games left against the Yankees (seven), Rays (11) and Red Sox (nine).
Put the Blue Jays at -225 like the Rays and I'm in.
Give me -275 and I'm at least considering it.
Not -500, though.
This line is much more a product of Toronto opening the season as one of the top candidates to win the American League than it is a product of what the Blue Jays have accomplished over the past three-and-a-half months. If you're looking to invest on either side of this fence, Toronto at +370 to miss the postseason is where it's at.
Atlanta Braves
18 of 18
Record: 56-38, 2.5 GB in NL East, 6.0 games ahead of Philadelphia/St. Louis for final NL WC
Postseason Chances: BR 97.0%, FG 98.0%, FiveThirtyEight 95%
DraftKings Postseason Odds: -2500
Buying or Selling? Buying
I wouldn't actually make this bet. Risking $2500 to win $100 more than two months from now—even on something that looks like a sure thing—is a miserable risk/reward proposition.
However, getting a 4 percent ROI on the Braves making the playoffs is surely a better idea than lighting money ablaze on an "Atlanta +1500 to miss the postseason" ticket.
While Seattle has the best record in baseball over the past month, Atlanta is tops since the end of May, storming into the All-Star break with a 33-12 record in its last 45 games.
The Braves did most of that damage against teams with no hope of making the playoffs, going 22-2 against the Nationals, Pirates, Rockies, Reds, A's and Diamondbacks. But it's more than just the schedule.
Both calling up Michael Harris II and moving Spencer Strider into the rotation at the end of May were season-altering decisions. Austin Riley caught fire. Adam Duvall, Dansby Swanson and Charlie Morton all turned a corner after disappointing starts. And an already great bullpen continued to dominate.
Add it all up and you've got a legitimate candidate to become the first back-to-back World Series champion since the 1998-2000 Yankees. It's really just a question of whether they'll bypass the Mets for the NL East crown or enter this postseason as a wild card.
Records, postseason betting odds from DraftKings and postseason probabilities from Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and FiveThirtyEight are all current through the start of play on Friday. Salary info via Spotrac.
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Odds and lines subject to change. 21+ (18+ NH/WY). AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.
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