MLB Draft 2022: Selection Order and Predictions for 1st-Round Baseball Prospects

The 2022 Major League Baseball draft is finally upon us, with many questions still lingering about what is going to happen right at the top.

The Baltimore Orioles own the No. 1 overall pick for the second time in three years. They used the top pick in 2019 to select catcher Adley Rutschman, who made his big-league debut earlier this season.

Among the prospects at the top of this year's class are names that will be familiar to MLB fans. Druw Jones is the son of former Atlanta Braves superstar Andruw Jones. Jackson Holliday is the son of seven-time All-Star Matt Holliday.

Teams have also had to adjust their boards significantly because of the number of pitchers who dealt with injuries throughout the spring season.

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2022 MLB Draft First-Round Order

1. Baltimore Orioles

2. Arizona Diamondbacks

3. Texas Rangers

4. Pittsburgh Pirates

5. Washington Nationals

6. Miami Marlins

7. Chicago Cubs

8. Minnesota Twins

9. Kansas City Royals

10. Colorado Rockies

11. New York Mets (compensation pick for not signing Kumar Rocker)

12. Detroit Tigers

13. Los Angeles Angels

14. New York Mets

15. San Diego Padres

16. Cleveland Guardians

17. Philadelphia Phillies

18. Cincinnati Reds

19. Oakland Athletics

20. Atlanta Braves

21. Seattle Mariners

22. St. Louis Cardinals

23. Toronto Blue Jays

24. Boston Red Sox

25. New York Yankees

26. Chicago White Sox

27. Milwaukee Brewers

28. Houston Astros

29. Tampa Bay Rays

30. San Francisco Giants

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Who is Going No. 1 Overall?

In his July 11 mock draft, The Athletic's Keith Law noted that "no one is going to know what Baltimore is doing until a few minutes before the pick."

Orioles general manager Mike Elias spent seven seasons with the Houston Astros as their director of amateur scouting from 2012-18. The first draft he helped oversee with the organization was when the Astros selected Carlos Correa with the top pick.

There were few indications leading up to the draft that Correa was Houston's preferred choice.

Law projected Holliday to the Orioles in his final mock draft, but noted they likely "have a short list of five or six names" that they are going to decide on.

Cal Poly shortstop Brooks Lee isn't rising, per se, but there does seem to be a decent chance he could be something of a surprise at No. 1.

Lee hit .357/.462/.664 with 15 homers and 55 RBI in 58 games during the 2022 season. The 21-year-old earns high marks for his hit tool and ability to make contact (28 strikeouts in 235 at-bats as a sophomore).

Jones has arguably the highest ceiling of any player in this class because of his defensive ability in center field. His bat is a question mark at this point, but the 18-year-old has the makings of a potential superstar if the hit tool catches up to the rest of his game.

Holliday is a more refined hitter than Jones at this stage of their respective development. MLB.com noted the Oklahoma State commit has also shown improved speed and arm strength as his body has started to fill out.

If there's a team that believes Jackson can stay at shortstop, he would almost certainly be neck-and-neck with Jones as the top overall prospect in this class. He might end up moving to third base, but the upside is still significant because of his offensive profile.

Who Will Be the First Pitcher Taken?

The top of this draft figures to be heavy on position players simply because teams may not be comfortable giving multi-million dollar bonuses to pitchers who missed time during the season because of injury or had Tommy John surgery this spring.

There is the possibility that the first starter off the board is one who had reconstructive elbow surgery. Georgia high school right-hander Dylan Lesko was in the mix to be the first pitcher taken until he went under the knife in April.

As more and more pitchers have seen their stock fall because of injury concerns, Lesko's profile certainly stands out. He was named Gatorade National Player of the Year as a junior in 2021 after going 11-0 with a 0.35 ERA and 112 strikeouts in 60 innings for Buford High School.

Per MLB.com, Lesko's fastball sits 92-95 mph with "good carry up in the strike zone and armside run and sink when he keeps it down, and he should add more velocity as he gets stronger." He's also got an elite changeup already and a solid breaking ball.

There's potential risk for Lesko and a team in this scenario. The risk for the club is obvious because betting on an 18-year-old to return to peak form after elbow surgery could go wrong in a hurry.

Lesko has the benefit of a scholarship to Vanderbilt in his pocket, but if he turns down a club's offer because it isn't quite at the level he was expecting, that's putting a lot of pressure on his arm to stay healthy before he can enter the draft again in three years.

If teams don't want to take the risk on Lesko as the first pitcher, Michigan high school righty Brock Porter seems poised to come off the board in the top half of the first round.

MLB.com has Porter ranked as the best pitcher in the class (No. 11 overall). He's already built like a college starter at 6'4" and 208 pounds with a fastball that can touch 100 mph.

Porter has the second-best changeup in this year's pitching crop, behind Lesko. He's still refining his breaking balls, but the raw package is there to project at least a No. 2 starter in pro ball.

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Who Will Bet on Kumar Rocker?

Perhaps the most intriguing storyline of the 2022 draft involves the pitcher who was drafted No. 10 overall last year.

Kumar Rocker was on the shortlist of the best pitching prospects available in the 2021 draft. The Vanderbilt star posted a 2.73 ERA with 179 strikeouts in 122 innings over 20 starts as a junior last year.

The New York Mets selected Rocker with their first pick, but the two sides were unable to agree to terms on a contract before the Aug. 1 deadline.

ESPN's Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel reported the Mets initially had an agreement with Rocker for a $6 million signing bonus but had concerns over the health of Rocker's arm following a physical.

Scott Boras, Rocker's agent, said in a statement to Passan and McDaniel that his client's arm was healthy:

"Kumar Rocker is healthy according to independent medical review by multiple prominent baseball orthopedic surgeons. Immediately upon conclusion of his collegiate season, he had an MRI on both his shoulder and his elbow. When compared with his 2018 MRIs, the medical experts found no significant change. Kumar requires no medical attention and will continue to pitch in the regular course as he prepares to begin his professional career."

Rocker signed with the Tri-City ValleyCats in May as part of his attempt to play real games in front of scouts leading up to the draft. He made his first start on June 4, and based on the velocity readings, there was no indication of anything wrong with his arm.

The 22-year-old has made five starts for the ValleyCats thus far. He has a 1.35 ERA with 32 strikeouts and four walks in 20 innings.

Depending on how teams feel about Rocker's medicals, there might be a chance he could sneak into the back half of the first round.

One team to keep an eye on could be the Atlanta Braves. They acquired the No. 35 overall pick from the Kansas City Royals for a package of three players, including their top prospect, Drew Waters.

Slot value for the 35th pick gives Atlanta an additional $2.2 million in bonus money to spend. The reigning World Series champions now have four of the first 76 picks.

Assuming his arm holds up, Rocker could go from being drafted in July to potentially pitching out of the bullpen for a playoff contender down the stretch this season.

Atlanta isn't hurting for relief pitching at this point. The bullpen leads MLB in FanGraphs' wins above replacement (4.7) and strikeouts per nine innings (10.38).

But looking ahead to a potential postseason series, when starters typically throw fewer innings and bullpen depth is more important than ever, Rocker could be a difference-maker right away for a team because of how good his stuff can be in short bursts.