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USWNT vs. Mexico: Odds and Predictions for 2022 CONCACAF W Championship

Joe TanseyJuly 11, 2022

Jaime Lopez/Jam Media/Getty Images

The United States women's national team have already accomplished one of its two objectives at the CONCACAF W Championship.

The USWNT locked in a berth for the 2023 Women's World Cup in Australia and New Zealand by securing a top-two finish in its group.

The 2024 Olympics is the next goal for the USWNT; It needs to win the competition to earn an automatic berth to Paris.

Vlatko Andonovski's side can move one step closer to its Olympic goal with a win over Mexico on Monday.

Mexico has had a disaster of a tournament, suffering losses to Haiti and Jamaica. The host nation is not able to advance out of the group stage and is playing solely for pride on Monday night.

The USWNT comes into the derby match as an overwhelming favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook. It is listed as a -4000 (bet $4,000 to win $100) favorite, while Mexico is a +2000 (bet $100 to win $2,000) underdog on the money line.

Prediction

United States 5, Mexico 0

The USWNT has produced eight goals in its first two games at the CONCACAF W Championship.

A 3-0 win over Haiti followed by a 5-0 thrashing of Jamaica means the US have a 100% record heading into their last game of the group stage.

The Americans have done a good job of starting strong and finishing with an emphatic burst of form in the final third.

Four of the eight goals scored down in Mexico have been netted before the 25th minute. Sophia Smith bagged a brace after eight minutes against Jamaica and Alex Morgan achieved the same feat in 23 minutes versus Haiti.

Three of the other four goals have come in the final 10 minutes of games. The lone outlier was a 59th-minute goal from Rose Lavelle against Jamaica.

Another fast start is imperative on Monday to kill any remaining morale within the Mexican camp. Mexico came into the tournament with a strong chance of finishing second in Group A; the host's failure to produce has been the biggest disappointment in the 11th edition of the tournament.

Mexico fell 1-0 to Jamaica in their opening game through a Khadija Shaw header in the eighth minute. The second group game brought more dismay for La Tri as they conceded two penalties as well as a brilliantly converted free-kick by Sherly Jeudy to condemn the ten women of Mexico to another defeat against the Haitians.

The host now looks set to finish with zero points in the tournament if their record against the USWNT continues to follow tradition

In the 41 games between the neighbors, the USWNT have won 39, drew one and lost just once against its rival to the south. A pair of 4-0 wins last July added to the run of 15 consecutive wins against Mexico.

USWNT manager Vlatko Andonovski could use Monday's match as a chance to experiment with a few things or to rotate his squad ahead of the knockout round, which begins on Thursday. The Americans will likely play the runner-up of Group B, which will either be Canada or Costa Rica.

The plus-eight goal difference gives the USWNT some wiggle room in case a bad performance comes out of the woodwork. Haiti comes into its match against Jamaica with a zero goal difference and Jamaica sits at minus-four after its 5-0 loss to the Americans.

Andonovski could use some sort of rotation, especially up top, to keep Alex Morgan and Sophia Smith fresh. Morgan played the full 90 against Haiti before being rested against Jamaica whilst Sophia Smith came off at halftime in both group stage games.

With the pair most likely being relied on in the knockout stages, the USWNT could start with Margaret Purce and Megan Rapinoe instead to save the energy of Smith and Morgan. The two aforementioned forwards could be brought in if a goal threat is needed.

Rotation may also be used in the defensive and midfield positions to give Rose Lavelle, Lindsey Horan and others some fresh legs with two more matches coming up in the next week with the Olympics on the line.

The USWNT should cruise past Mexico regardless of which players are on the field. The early strikes in the two Concacaf W Championship wins prove the team is laser-focused on its goals; they have shown the killer instinct in the second half to keep their opponents at bay.

Mexico is searching for anything positive out of the tournament, but it will not get that against a team that it has continuously struggled against.

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