1 Nightmare Matchup for 5 NHL Playoff Contenders
We’re in the dog days of the 2021-22 NHL regular season. The cellar-dwelling teams are beating each other up in meaningless games while the top teams in each conference jostle for Stanley Cup Playoff positioning.
The Eastern Conference playoff grouping has been set for months, with the only thing left to determine is the final bracket. Over in the Western Conference, the wild card has yet to be determined. The Vegas Golden Knights could potentially miss the playoffs for the first time since the franchise’s history. The Vancouver Canucks still have an outside chance of leapfrogging Vegas and Dallas for that last wild-card spot.
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And, of course, there is always a chance the high-powered Golden Knights get some of their firepower back and manage to pull ahead of the Los Angeles Kings to save their season.
Lots of scenarios are still in play.
Matchups are everything in the playoffs. Unlike in the regular season, when weaknesses can be minimized in a single game, a seven-game series allows some teams to exploit another's weakness or neutralize the opposition's strength. It's enough time to figure out how to pick apart a power play and how a goalie moves.Br
Sometimes two teams match up well, but other times it's a disastrous draw.
Here are five matchups that fall into the latter category and why.
New York Rangers: Pittsburgh Penguins
The New York Rangers will successfully take the next step in their rebuild when they return to the playoffs (technically, they only reached the postseason portion of the 2020 bubble tournament and not the playoff portion, failing to make it out of the qualifying round) for the first time since 2017.
They have a lineup full of elite talent at the top and emerging young stars throughout, plus a goalie who should be a finalist for the Vezina Trophy in Igor Shesterkin.
The lineup has also done a good job of limiting chances in front of Shesterkin, and their power play is exceptionally good, with the Blueshirts' 26.6 percent conversion being the second-best in the NHL.
The top unit with the man advantage might be one of the best, with Chris Kreider (the third-leading scorer in the league), Artemi Panarin, Ryan Strome, Mika Zibanejad and defending Norris Trophy winner Adam Fox. The addition of Andrew Copp to the second unit has given them a tougher net-front presence, but that second unit doesn't see a whole lot of time since the top one takes care of business.
However, the Rangers generate surprisingly little offense at 5-on-5, ranking toward the bottom of the league in Corsi, scoring chances and expected goals for. New York typically wins by winning the special teams battle and goaltending, making its Metropolitan Division foes in the Pittsburgh Penguins, the least penalized team in the NHL this season, its most potentially daunting challenge.
The Penguins also have the second-best penalty kill in the league and a ton of postseason experience. The Rangers' leaders aren't completely devoid of playoff experience, but it's tough to match that of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, Jeff Carter and even former Ranger Brian Boyle.
Maybe this is where we see the changing of the guard, with the Rangers overcoming their even-strength issues and their young players knocking off the legendary vets, especially since the Rangers are 3-1-0 against Pittsburgh this season and have outscored the Penguins 11-4.
But on paper, this isn't a good matchup.
Colorado Avalanche: Vegas Golden Knights
The Colorado Avalanche have been playing with a chip on their shoulder after losing in the second round to the Vegas Golden Knights last season. A meeting again in early rounds would be a nightmare for reasons other than just the statistical matchup because the Avs have been the better team all season.
Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty could get healthy enough for the playoffs when the salary cap doesn't matter, and the club would be out of the woods with the cap constraints. That would give Vegas an even deeper lineup than they had last spring when they knocked out Colorado in six games since Jack Eichel has joined the club.
The Avs have been the favorites in the Western Conference all season but have dealt with their own injury issues, with captain Gabriel Landeskog currently on injured reserve while he recovers from knee surgery. Nazem Kadri, who is second on the team with 83 points, is expected to return by the playoffs.
However, should Colorado continue to struggle with injuries and run into a fully healthy Golden Knights squad, they may struggle to avenge their playoff disappointment from a season ago.
Questions will be asked about last year's series, but Vegas has been a contender for four years. It's time for the Avs to show that they're a top team when it matters, and to do that, they may once again have to face off against Vegas.
Toronto Maple Leafs: Tampa Bay Lightning
If you’re looking at playoff history, as we just did above, you might be thinking the worst opponent for the Toronto Maple Leafs would be the Boston Bruins. The Leafs have lost their last six postseason series against Boston dating back to 1969.
The 2019 first-round loss still stings, but this is a better, deeper Leafs team that has a different coach, a different goalie and plays much better defense.
Instead, the nightmare matchup for Toronto would be the Tampa Bay Lightning. To be fair, the Lightning are a nightmare team for anyone to face. They haven't lost a postseason series since 2019, and they're still the champions until someone knocks them off.
These are two elite teams that would make for a great series.
Tampa Bay has the best quite possibly the best goaltender in the world in Andrei Vasilevskiy, a proven coach in Jon Cooper and a deep lineup.
The team lost its entire third line of Blake Coleman, Yanni Gourde and Barclay Goodrow, as well as other players from those two Stanley Cup teams like Tyler Johnson, and hasn't missed a beat.
In Toronto, Auston Matthews has quickly become one of the most prolific scorers of this generation and is the type of game-breaking player that can make a difference in the playoffs. He scored his 55th goal of the season on Thursday night to set the Leafs' single-season record and the most for a U.S.-born NHL player.
Meanwhile, Mitch Marner has surpassed the 30-goal benchmark for the first time in his career.
Yet Matthews and Marner disappeared during their seven-game series with the Montreal Canadien last season. The Lightning have the defenders to neutralize even the best scorers, including Ryan McDonagh, who is expected to return as soon as this weekend.
Meeting in the first round is a realistic scenario given the current Atlantic Division standings. There is immense pressure on Toronto to get out of the first round, and this is an opponent who can bring the pressure on and off the ice.
Much like the Colorado-Vegas matchup, this one is less about the statistics and more about the storyline and the narratives that surround the Leafs and Lighting.
Los Angeles Kings: Calgary Flames
The Los Angeles Kings will return to the playoffs for the first time since 2018. A decade ago, it looked as though they had an emerging dynasty, but the culture fell apart, key veterans departed and former general manager Dean Lombardi tried to keep the window open a little too long, failing to recognize that it had already shut.
Finally, Lombardi's successor, Rob Blake, decided to blow it up and rebuild in 2019. Blake kept some of that championship core, and Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown, Drew Doughty and Jonathan Quick remain.
He stockpiled talent and quickly built one of the most impressive prospect pools in hockey. He hired coach Todd McLellan to guide the team through the lean years and get them ready for a return to contention.
Los Angeles is ahead of schedule and currently sitting in third place in the Pacific Division with 86 points, a near-lock to make the playoffs. And there is a chance they could face a familiar face: Darryl Sutter, the coach that guided them to two Stanley Cups and the current coach of the Calgary Flames.
Sutter hockey has proven to be effective throughout the years, and the Flames are proof that it's still working. It might a low-event style of play, but Calgary is scoring 3.48 goals per game, good for sixth in the league, and they're the third-highest shot volume team at 5-on-5 in the NHL.
The Kings don't have the defense to withstand an offensive attack from Calgary. If Alexander Edler returns, as he is expected to soon, it will add another proven defender to the blueline. However, the club is unsure when Doughty can return from an upper-body injury, and without him, Los Angeles may not have enough to stop Calgary's offense.
The Los Angeles power play is also the least effective amongst teams in playoff contention, as its 16.6 percent mark is 28th in the league. The Flames, meanwhile, happen to be one of the best penalty-killing teams, killing off 83.4 percent of the opponent's power-play opportunities.
No one knows Sutter hockey like the Kings, but now that Kopitar, Doughty, Brown and Quick are on the other side, it might not be as much fun.
Boston Bruins: Carolina Hurricanes
The Carolina Hurricanes have outscored the Boston Bruins 16-1 in three meetings this year. Granted, one of those games was one of Tuukka Rask's final games in the NHL, and it was a disaster. However, Linus Ullmark didn't fare much better against the Canes in February, allowing all six goals in a 6-0 loss.
This matchup could be similar to a Kings-Flames series in that Carolina is a high shot-volume team, and Boston may not have the defense to contain their attack.
The Bruins added Hampus Lindholm at the trade deadline to deepen the blueline, and this team has been good at limiting scoring chances throughout the season.
They'll have to decide which goaltender to go with during the playoffs because a tandem is never really an effective plan past the regular season. They have two very good options in Jeremy Swayman and Ullmark, though, the latter of whom has played much better lately, going 6-0-0 with a .938 save percentage in his last seven games.
However, it's tough to argue with how many weapons Carolina has up front. This is an exceptionally deep team, especially at forward, where they can roll all four lines and overwhelm teams with the volume and quality of shots. They have defensemen with shutdown abilities like Brett Pesce and two who can jump into offensive plays in Jaccob Slavin and Tony DeAngelo.
It's a tough match for the Bruins, who have similar high-end talent but not as much as Carolina, especially on the blueline.
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