NFL Week 16 Picks: Expect 3 Home Favorites To Cover With Ease

The NFL slate features only three road favorites this week, an abnormal turn of events that means there are plenty of home favorites to pick from. I’ve singled out three as the safest plays of the week:

(Spreads courtesy of Covers.com)

Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals (-4)

The Cards may have won six of seven, but they haven’t been on the road in almost a month and are 2-5 on the road with one of those wins coming against the Rams.

Arizona historically stinks when they have to travel three time zones for the 1:00 EST start, and will really struggle early in the game. While the Cardinals are technically still in the playoff hunt, they would need a Tebow-esque miracle to end up getting there.

The Bengals, meanwhile, are right in the thick of things in the AFC wild-card hunt. A win coupled with a Jets loss means they have the inside advantage to securing the final spot in the playoffs.

Expect Andy Dalton to take advantage of overly aggressive corners, and Cedric Benson to control the clock in the second half.

Key Trends:

Bengals are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a S.U. win.

Cardinals are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.

Prediction: Bengals 23 Cardinals 14

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans -7.5

The Titans are a better team with Jake Locker under center. In his part-time action this season he has almost pulled off two stunning comebacks.

But the Titans are being stubborn and plan on starting the aging Matt Hasselbeck once again.

The way head coach Mike Munchak figures, he’s the one that got the team here, so why not give him a chance to finish the job? The Titans do in fact still hold a chance to make the postseason.

Good thing they’re playing the Jaguars—aka the punching bag of the NFL.

Ignore the win over the Bucs, who have officially quit on their team, and the Jags have lost their last four games by a combined 62 points.

Rookie QB Blaine Gabbert has regressed as the season progresses because he doesn’t step into his throws and avoids contact at all costs.

The Titans are desperate and aren’t going to let an awful division rival get in the way.

Key Trends:

Titans are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a ATS loss.

Jaguars are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games as a road underdog.

Prediction: Titans 27 Jaguars 13

San Diego Chargers at Detroit Lions -1

This game should be closer to a touchdown, not a pick ‘em. With the chance to solidify their first postseason appearance in over 10 years, it’s all hands on deck for the Lions. They are riding high after their incredible comeback against the Raiders, and enter Week 16 with the swagger they had seemed to lose after the 5-0 start.

The Chargers have to win this game to stay alive, but that’s only because they play in the AFC West. The ‘Bolts sport a six-game losing streak this season, and Philip Rivers has experienced his worst season as a pro, thanks in large part to an offensive line that has been absolutely decimated by injury.

Expect the Lions pass rush to control this one.

Key Trends:

Lions are 5-0-3 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.

Lions are 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite.

Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Prediction: Lions 31 Chargers 22