NFL Week 16 Picks: Late Predictions for Every Game This Week
We're running out of regular season games, folks. Better enjoy the ones we have while we can.
The NFL schedule for Week 16 is the wild west. There are a lot of games with playoff implications, and things are complicated by the fact that most teams will be playing on Saturday. With so many teams playing on short rest, there's really not much we can take for granted.
But hey, somebody has to pick these games, and I aim to give it a shot.
With Week 16 officially under way, here are last-minute picks for every game on the docket.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
1 of 16Line: Houston -7, according to Bovada.
How Houston Can Win
The Texans will be fine as long as they have success running the football, and that shouldn't be too much to ask against the Colts. Their defense as a whole is horrible, but it's particularly bad against the run. If Arian Foster is his usual self, Houston's defense will take care of the rest.
How Indianapolis Can Win
The Colts need to find a way to put this game in T.J. Yates' hands. Containing Foster will be a big part of that. If the Colts are successful in that regard, they might be able to pressure Yates into making a rookie mistake or two. Given their limitations on offense, the Colts are going to need as much help as they can get.
Prediction: Texans 23, Colts 14
A little too close for comfort maybe, but the Texans will take this one and cover. They still have something to play for, and it will show.
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
2 of 16Line: Kansas City -2, according to Bovada.
How Oakland Can Win
The Chiefs offense is not going to give the Raiders too much trouble, but the Raiders must be efficient when they have the ball. This is something they haven't been able to accomplish in recent weeks, and they have nobody to blame for that but themselves. Michael Bush hasn't been running the ball as effectively, and Carson Palmer has missed some throws he shouldn't be missing. These things need to change.
How Kansas City Can Win
The Chiefs shut down Green Bay's offense in Week 15, and they need to do the same to Oakland's offense on Saturday. Getting after Carson Palmer will be key, and the Chiefs will gladly accept any mistakes that he happens to make in this game. It bodes well for them that Palmer has been interception-prone this season.
Prediction: Raiders 20, Chiefs 16
I have a feeling I'm going to regret this pick, but I'm banking on the Raiders correcting some minor mistakes and coming away with a win.
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills
3 of 16Line: Denver -3, according to Bovada.
How Denver Can Win
Should be easy enough. The Bills don't have enough offense to put the Broncos in an early hole, and that will allow the Broncos to stick to the ground. It won't be pretty, but they'll keep pounding away. On the other side of the ball, the Bills offense is no match for the Broncos defense.
How Buffalo Can Win
The Bills need Ryan Fitzpatrick to be his good self. He's been his bad self far too often this season, particularly during Buffalo's current slide. The Broncos can be beaten through the air, and Fitzpatrick is going to have to do that to give the Bills a fighting chance.
Prediction: Broncos 24, Bills 20
It's going to be a close shave, but the better team will win this game.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
4 of 16Line: Tennessee -7.5, according to Bovada.
How Jacksonville Can Win
All they need is a great game from Maurice Jones-Drew and a not-terrible game from Blaine Gabbert. They also need their defense to contain Chris Johnson. Other than that, the Jaguars are golden.
How Tennessee Can Win
The Titans are sticking with Matt Hasselbeck as their starting quarterback, but my gut tells me Jake Locker will find his way into this game at some point. When he does, the Titans are going to need him to do something. Because, let's face it, Hasselbeck doesn't do much when he plays.
Prediction: Titans 23, Jaguars 17
Close, but no cover. I just cannot rely on the Titans to do anything these days.
Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals
5 of 16Line: Cincinnati -4, according to Bovada.
How Arizona Can Win
Arizona's defense has really come along in recent weeks, and that doesn't bode well for a Bengals offense that has been kinda sputtering along. But to pull off a win, the Cardinals are going to need more solid play from John Skelton. Beanie Wells can help too, but he's going up against a pretty tough rush defense.
How Cincinnati Can Win
First of all, the Bengals need to make sure they don't kick it to Patrick Peterson. That's asking for trouble. Aside from that, they need to stuff Wells and force Skelton into committing a turnover or two. If they can do that, whatever offense they can muster will be good enough.
Prediction: Bengals 21, Cardinals 20
The Bengals will win, but only by a nose. Seeing as how they're fighting for their playoff lives, they'll take it.
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
6 of 16Line: New England -10, according to Bovada.
How Miami Can Win
Tom Brady has already destroyed the Dolphins once this year, and I don't think they're going to fare much better against him the second time around. The Dolphins' best hope is to keep pace, feeding the Patriots a steady diet of Reggie Bush and getting more solid play from Matt Moore. It would also be a good idea to pray for a miracle or two.
How New England Can Win
They just need to let Tom Brady do his thing. He burned this team for 500-plus yards and four touchdowns way back in Week 1. The Pats will be fine if they get even half of that.
Prediction: Patriots 34, Dolphins 21
Make that seven in a row for the Patriots.
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
7 of 16Line: Baltimore -13, according to Bovada.
How Cleveland Can Win
It's going to be tough, but the Browns need to find a way to take Ray Rice out of the game. If they can do that, they can sit back and watch Joe Flacco screw things up. Baltimore's entire team has a way of wilting when that happens.
How Baltimore Can Win
They simply need to focus, which is something they haven't always done this season. The good news for them is that this game is at home, meaning there's less of a trap for them to fall into. If they do their thing, they'll be fine.
Prediction: Ravens 27, Browns 10
Yup, the Ravens are going to get back on track. Count on it.
New York Giants at New York Jets
8 of 16Line: Jets -3, according to Bovada.
How the Giants Can Win
Sooner or later, this game is going to come down to how much magic Eli Manning has left in his tank. He's certainly going to need more than he had last week, as he crippled the Giants with three interceptions. If he does that again, the Giants are doomed.
How the Jets Can Win
The Jets don't need to force Manning into making mistakes. They merely need to contain him, and hope that he doesn't get extra opportunities. That will be up to Mark Sanchez, who must not turn the football over. Lucky for him, the Giants secondary is awful.
Prediction: Jets 27, Giants 20
I'll take the Jets to win the Battle of New York, simply because they're a better football team.
Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins
9 of 16Line: Washington -6.5, according to Bovada.
How Minnesota Can Win
The Vikings must not ask Christian Ponder to do too much. He can be solid, but not solid enough to bear the whole team on his back. He's going to need some help from Adrian Peterson, which can be arranged. Defensively, Minnesota's secondary has to keep from embarrassing itself too badly.
How Washington Can Win
You know that secondary I just mentioned? Rex Grossman needs to do his best to pick it apart. He doesn't need to replicate what Drew Brees just did, but something like 250-plus yards and a touchdown or two should be good enough. The team around Grossman will take care of the rest.
Prediction: Redskins 31, Vikings 17
The Vikings are awful, and the Redskins are slightly better than awful. They get the edge.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
10 of 16Line: Carolina -7.5, according to Bovada
How Tampa Bay Can Win
The Buccaneers aren't stopping Cam Newton, so Josh Freeman and the Bucs offense will have to keep up with him. LeGarrette Blount can lend a big hand in this regard, as he will be facing a Carolina defense that has not played well against the run this season.
How Carolina Can Win
Just let Newton do his thing. The first time he faced Tampa Bay, he scored a grand total of four touchdowns, three of which came on the ground. In the spirit of switching things up, he might want to take to the air this time around, especially with Aqib Talib out.
Prediction: Panthers 31, Buccaneers 16
Make that nine in a row for the Bucs. Yeesh.
St. Louis Rams at Pittsburgh Steelers
11 of 16Line: Pittsburgh -17, according to ESPN.
How St. Louis Can Win
Per Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Sam Bradford is "very doubtful" for this game. It doesn't really matter who is under center, of course, as the Rams offense is the worst in the NFL. Against the Steelers, one of the best defensive teams in the league, the Rams are doomed unless the Steelers' own offense has a bad day.
How Pittsburgh Can Win
According to the Associated Press, Ben Roethlisberger is hoping to play in this game. Regardless of whether or not he does, it's probably not a good idea to expect big things from Pittsburgh's offense. Big Ben didn't look so good last time we saw him, so the defense needs to cut the offense a break by keeping St. Louis out of the end zone.
Prediction: Steelers 17, Rams 6
It's a win, but not a cover. The spread is bit too big, if you ask me.
San Diego Chargers at Detroit Lions
12 of 16Line: Detroit -3, according to Bovada.
How San Diego Can Win
The Chargers just need to keep doing what they've been doing. That starts with Philip Rivers not sucking, as he's been much better over the last four weeks. If he keeps it up, the Chargers are going to have a shot to score a lot of points, every last one of which will come in handy.
How Detroit Can Win
Matthew Stafford has played very well the last two weeks, and on Sunday he seemed to remember how and when to throw it up for grabs to Calvin Johnson. That's a good idea in any situation, and doing so as many times as possible against San Diego will result in fun times for all.
Prediction: Lions 34, Chargers 28
It's going to be a shootout, and I like the Lions to win it on a late touchdown.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
13 of 16Line: San Francisco -2, according to Bovada.
How San Francisco Can Win
All they really have to do is stuff Marshawn Lynch, which should be simple enough. Even Beast Mode won't be a match for the league's top rush defense, which hasn't allowed a rushing touchdown since the dawn of time. Or some such long stretch of time, anyway.
How Seattle Can Win
Lynch is going to have to break through. Either that or Tarvaris Jackson is going to have his best game all season. The Seahawks also need their defense to keep Frank Gore in check. A lot of things, really.
Prediction: 49ers 23, Seahawks 16
The 49ers will be up against it coming off a very short week, but they'll get it done.
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
14 of 16Line: Dallas -1.5, according to Sportsbook.
How Philadelphia Can Win
Giving LeSean McCoy as many touches as possible is in Philly's interest, as he killed the Cowboys the first time these two teams met up. Beyond that, it will be up to Philly's defense to harass Tony Romo, which is not asking too much. If they do, Romo won't be as sharp as he's been for the better part of the season.
How Dallas Can Win
Containing McCoy will be difficult, but the Cowboys can always set their sights on Michael Vick. He will make mistakes, and the Cowboys defense will force mistakes. Offensively, the Cowboys are going to need Tony Romo to be at his best, as Dallas' rushing attack has been reduced to nothing with DeMarco Murray out for the year.
Prediction: Cowboys 27, Eagles 21
I'm not buying Philly's sudden resurgence. With their playoff lives at stake, the Cowboys will get it done.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
15 of 16Line: Green Bay -13, according to Sportsbook.
How Chicago Can Win
They need to get Jay Cutler and Matt Forte back. Then they need to build a brick wall with robotic legs and program it to stay in front of Aaron Rodgers at all times. They also need Devin Hester to return a million punts for touchdowns.
How Green Bay Can Win
They need to realize the pressure is off them. Then Aaron Rodgers and company need to go to town. The only way the Packers are going to lose this game is if they allow themselves to lose it.
Prediction: Packers 28, Bears 7
Yeah, the Packers are breaking out of their slump in this one.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
16 of 16Line: New Orleans -7, according to Bovada.
How Atlanta Can Win
Atlanta's defense is not going to stop Drew Brees, but it needs to make life tougher for him. If it does, the Falcons are going to be able to win this game. Matt Ryan is playing outstanding football right now, and he has more than enough weapons around him to lead the Falcons to an upset win.
How New Orleans Can Win
As well as Matt Ryan is playing right now, he has a tendency to not shot up in big games. All the Saints have to do is rattle him, and let Drew Brees take care of the rest.
Prediction: Saints 31, Falcons 28
It's going to be a great game. But sadly, the Saints won't cover.
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