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NFL Playoff Scenarios: Predicting the 5 Most Likely Wild Card Games

Zach KruseDec 22, 2011

The following five matchups are the most likely games for the NFL's Wild Card Weekend: 

Detroit Lions (9-5) at New Orleans Saints (11-3)

This looks like the most likely Wild Card Game. The Lions need just one win to clinch a playoff spot, but the Falcons hold a head-to-head tiebreaker. This means that they're more than likely be the sixth seed, which sets up a visit to the No. 3 seed.

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The Saints will stay at No. 3 in the NFC unless the San Francisco 49ers lose one of their final two games (at Seattle, St. Louis), while it's no guarantee that New Orleans wins their final two (vs. Atlanta, vs. Carolina).

Denver Broncos (8-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4)

This would be a Wild Card Game as things currently stand. The Broncos, despite a revival from the Chargers and Chiefs, have the inside track to winning the AFC West. The winner of that division will be the No. 4 seed.

Meanwhile, the Steelers would need a break to jump the Baltimore Ravens, who have two head-to-head tiebreakers. If they don't win the division outright, they'll be the No. 5 seed in the AFC, which means a likely trip to Denver.

Atlanta Falcons (9-5) at Dallas Cowboys (8-6)

Atlanta Falcons (9-5) at New York Giants (7-7)

The Falcons look locked into the No. 5 seed, which almost guarantees a trip to the NFC East winner. A Week 17 matchup between the Cowboys and Giants will likely determine who the winner of that division will be.

Only one of the remaining 16 playoff scenarios include the 6-8 Philadelphia Eagles. 

New York Jets (8-6) at Houston Texans (10-4)

If the Ravens and Texans both finish at 12-4, the Ravens would be the No. 2 seed and the Texans would be No. 3. It's still a little blurry as to who might win the right to play the No. 3 seed, but the Jets have the best chance.

A win over the Miami Dolphins in Week 17 makes it tough for the Jets to be eliminated. 

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