NFL Picks Week 16: Picking This Week's Surest Bets

With teams like the San Diego Chargers, Cincinnati Bengals and Philadelphia Eagles all making late-season surges, it can get tricky feeling confident when placing bets.

But, whether it's because of injuries, favorable matchups or the point spread, there are sure bets each week. And here are three of them.

Click the link for a full view of the Week 16 NFL Line. Also, all FAVORITES are in CAPS.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (at Seattle Seahawks) -2.5

The Seahawks may be surging, however the 49ers quickly regained themselves thanks to a big Monday night win over Pittsburgh.

RB Marshawn Lynch may be a beast and tough to tackle, but he's going up against the NFL's No. 1-ranked rush defense. On the contrary, San Francisco RB Frank Gore is just as good, if not better than Lynch.

To enhance Frisco's favor, Seattle has the No. 11-ranked rush defense. So, Gore has the more favorable matchup, as well as a more effective passing game. All Seattle has is Lynch; their passing game is weak, and the 49ers will exploit that with blitzes and press coverage.

Take the 49ers against the spread.

Jacksonville Jaguars (at TENNESSEE TITANS) -7.5

Not sure how this point spread is 7.5 points when Tennessee just lost to Indianapolis and the Jaguars got blasted by Atlanta. Surely Jacksonville's loss was more credible, however, one thing both have in common is an upset win over Baltimore.

As for their game, the Jaguars have the edge with RB Maurice Jones-Drew because, although he's a one-man wrecking crew, no one can stop him. On the flip-side, Titans RB Chris Johnson has been sporadic at best.

The Jaguars also have the more consistent defense despite having dealt with some injuries. Tennessee's offense lacks explosion whereas Jacksonville at least poses the threat.

Take the Jaguars and the points.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (vs Chicago Bears) -13

Based on last week's performance, at first glance it's rather surprising to see the Packers favored by almost two TDs. However, think harder about it and it's a good call.

Chicago, for one, has been hit by the Bubonic injury plague and has lost four straight games. Perhaps the 38-14 thrashing they received at home against Seattle last week is enough evidence.

As for the Packers, they will get back on track now that the pressure of perfection is over. They'll play a little more loose and on some level, without the paranoia of failure. Now, they're not going to dice it up all day because the run game needs to improve, so expect a lot on the ground.

Defensively, they'll force some turnovers, but working on stopping the run is key. It's not a high-scoring affair, but it's definitely at least 14 points.

Take the Packers against the spread.

Follow John Rozum on Twitter @Sportswriter27