NFL Picks Week 16: Predictions for Games with Tiny Spreads

Some games are just too close to call.

Unfortunately for us, there are usually a few of them on the NFL schedule every weekend. There seem to be even more of them this late in the season, which was bound to happen given the amount of balance across the league this year.

As of right now, there are five games on the Week 16 docket that bear spreads of three points or less. For what it's worth, below are my picks for these five games.

Note: all spreads according to Bovada.

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-2)

Silly me has picked the Raiders in each of the last three weeks. That hasn't worked out so well.

As such, I'm extremely hesitant to pick the Silver and Black again in Week 16, especially not against a Chiefs team that just beat the Green Bay Packers. If they can beat them, they can beat anyone.

It doesn't help that the Chiefs have already beaten the Raiders this year.

But I'm going to do it anyway. The Chiefs don't have enough offense to put the Raiders in any kind of hole, and I think the Raiders are going to be able to generate just enough offense to keep the Chiefs at bay.

After all, let's not overlook the fact that Carson Palmer is coming off a game in which he completed 80 percent of his passes and threw for nearly 370 yards. On a good day, he's dangerous.

Raiders 20, Chiefs 16

Denver Broncos (-3) at Buffalo Bills

It looked like the Broncos were going to knock off the New England Patriots, but Tebow Time ran out of gas. The Broncos ended up being humbled in a big way.

Against the Bills, the Broncos should go back to being themselves. Buffalo's offense is not going to trouble Denver's defense quite as much as New England's offense was able to do, and the Broncos' will be able to stick to the run all game as a result.

In other words, the Broncos are going to be able to get back to their winning formula in this game. It's not pretty, but it is effective when it's working. Expect them to win this game, running Buffalo's losing streak to eight in a row.

Broncos 24, Bills 20

New York Giants at New York Jets (-3)

Both New York teams are remarkably unreliable. But between the two of them, you have to give the edge to the Jets.

For all their shortcomings, the Jets still play pretty good defense, particularly against the pass. That's going to help them against the Giants, as they really only stand a chance of winning when Eli Manning is at the top of his game.

He's been very good for the most part, but he is going to be in for a tough game against the Jets.

All the Jets have to do to win is avoid making too many mistakes, particularly when it comes to turnovers. The pressure will be on Mark Sanchez, but he should benefit from facing a Giants defense that is awful against the pass.

Jets 27, Giants 20

San Diego Chargers at Detroit Lions (-3)

When it comes to this game, you have to ask yourself one thing:

Do you buy San Diego's current hot streak?

I don't. The Chargers have played well the last three weeks, but the last two wins have come at home and the first was on the road against an atrocious Jacksonville team.

The Lions are not atrocious. On the contrary, they're playing good football right now, and you particularly have to love the way Matthew Stafford has played in the last two weeks.

His finger seems to have healed, and he even remembered how to chuck it up for grabs to Calvin Johnson against Oakland on Sunday.

This one will likely be a shootout, but expect the Lions to win it on a late touchdown.

Lions 34, Chargers 28

San Francisco 49ers (-2) at Seattle Seahawks

The one thing you have to worry about concerning the 49ers is how they're going to handle going from a Monday night game to a Saturday game. There are short weeks, and then there are short weeks.

But the 49ers will be fine in this game if they can do one thing, and that's stop Marshawn Lynch. He generates the bulk of Seattle's offense, but he'll be in for a long day against a 49ers defense that hasn't allowed a rushing touchdown all season.

Assuming the 49ers can keep Lynch under wraps, it should be easy enough for them to wear the Seahawks down. Alex Smith's Pro Bowl resume will get stronger.

49ers 23, Seahawks 16