NFL Playoff Scenarios: Deciphering the Mess in the AFC West

How close is the AFC West race right now?

Well, we've played 15 weeks of football, and all four teams in the division still have a shot to win it. In fact, the AFC West is the only division in the NFL where every team is still in the mix.

But as you can probably imagine, the AFC West is a bit of a mess. There are only two weeks left, but there are a bunch of scenarios to take into consideration.

Let's keep it simple. Here's how the AFC West can be won.

How the Broncos Can Win 

Since the Broncos already have a one-game lead over the Oakland Raiders and San Diego Chargers, all they have to do is win, which is something they say Tim Tebow does quite well.

The Broncos finish at the Buffalo Bills and versus the Kansas City Chiefs, two games they should be able to win, thus finishing the year with a 10-6 record.

The good news for the Broncos is that they can afford to lose to the Bills as long as they turn around and beat the Chiefs. If they do, they'll own tiebreakers over both San Diego and Oakland.

If the Broncos beat the Bills but lose to the Chiefs, they'll be in trouble. They'll finish 9-7, but the Raiders will have a tiebreak over them if they also finish 9-7. 

If the Broncos lose both of their remaining games, they'll need the Chargers to lose to the Detroit Lions in Week 16 and then beat the Raiders in Week 17, and they will also need the Raiders to beat the Chiefs in Week 16.

In that case, the 8-8 Broncos would win the division thanks to their win percentage in common games.

How the Raiders Can Win

The first thing the Raiders have to do is win, as they are currently mired in a three-game losing streak that has put them on the brink of the playoff race.

The Raiders close at the Chiefs and at home versus the Chargers, and they need to win both games to have a shot at winning the AFC West.

In order to actually win the division, the Raiders need the Broncos to lose to the Chiefs in Week 17. That will allow the Raiders to grab the division thanks to their win percentage in division games.

If the Raiders lose either one of their last two games, they're not winning the division.

How the Chargers Can Win

The Chargers have done well to even out their record, but they still have work to do.

It's going to take wins in their final two games for the Chargers to win the AFC West. And that's not going to be easy, as the Chargers finish the season on the road at Detroit and at Oakland.

The only way the Chargers are winning the division is if the Broncos lose to the Bills and Chiefs. That would leave the Chargers as the only 9-7 team in the division, and that would give them the division crown.

If the Chargers lose either one of their final two games, they're not winning the division either.

How the Chiefs Can Win

The Chiefs have beaten the mighty Green Bay Packers, so don't underestimate their chances of winning the AFC West.

All they have to do is finish 8-8, in which case they will be in surprisingly good shape.

In the event that all four teams in the division finish 8-8, the Chiefs would edge Denver, Oakland and San Diego thanks to their win percentage in head-to-head competition.

For this to happen, the Chiefs need to win their final two games against Oakland and at Denver. They would also need the Broncos to lose to the Bills and the Chargers to lose to the Lions. 

If the Chiefs get to the postseason, Romeo Crennel will probably have himself a head-coaching job for the foreseeable future.