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NFL Week 16 Picks: Favorites That Will Demolish Inadequate Spreads

Richard LangfordDec 20, 2011

If you are into making easy money, you will want to place a bet on one of the following favorites.

All three of these teams are headed towards double-digit victories, and it will be clear early in the game that victory is a mere formality of passing time.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

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Line: 49ers -2.5.

The Seahawks have been streaking as of late, but that streak is about to come to a loud and abrupt end. Seattle has won five of their last six games on the strength of their running game and by forcing turnovers.

That is not a recipe to beat the 49ers. San Francisco is first in the league in rushing-yards allowed, and they have turned the ball over less than any other team.

Seattle is not going to get the pleasure of having a short field to work with in this game, and their offense is not strong enough to drive the field against the 49ers.

It is not going to be a cake-walk for the 49ers offense in this game, however. Seattle has done a fine job of stopping the run this season.

They allow just 3.7 yards per carry, which is fourth-best in the NFL. This will help them slow down a 49ers offense that relies heavily on the run. However, San Francisco has enough weapons in the passing game that they will be able to add enough through the air to lead them to victory.

Tight end Vernon Davis led the 49ers with five receptions against the Seahawks the first time these two teams played, and he will be a favorite target of Smith again this week.

Also, look for the 49ers to help RBs Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter get their yards in the receiving game. Football Outsiders ranks the Seahawks No. 32 in defending RBs in the passing game.

Oddsmakers have been missing on the Niners all season. San Francisco is 10-2-1 against the spread, and they will better that number this week.

Prediction: 49ers 20, Seahawks 6.

Line: Texans -5.5.

After clinching their first-ever division title last week, the Texans let down their guard and were beatdown by the Panthers. They will rebound this week against a Colts team that is content to no longer be winless.

Houston is obviously hampered by having to play third-string rookie QB TJ Yates. However, they won't suffer much of a gap in QB talent in this game, as the Colts will be rolling out Dan Orlovsky.

Indianapolis was able to scrape out a win last week by hiding Orlovsky behind a strong running game. Dan threw for just 82 yards in that game as the Colts rushed for 205 yards.

They will not find the same success against the Texans, who are fifth in the league in rushing yards allowed.

On the other side of the ball, the Texans will be able to wear out an Indianapolis rush defense that is 23rd in rushing-yards allowed.

The Texans aren't going to need many points to cover this spread, and they will easily improve on their 9-4-1 record against the spread.

Prediction: Texans 20, Colts 10.

Line: Panthers -7.5.

These are two teams headed in polar-opposite directions. The Panthers have won three of their last four games, and the Bucs have lost eight in a row.

They are also getting worse during that losing streak. In their last three games, Tampa has been outscored 110-48—that includes a 38-19 whooping by the Panthers, and that one was in Tampa Bay.

There is no reason to think that the Buccaneers are going to fare any better in this game.

Meanwhile, the Panthers just keep playing better and better. At the root of their turnaround is a vastly improved run defense.

Carolina is ranked 24th on the season, allowing 4.6 yards per carry; however, over their last three games, they have allowed just 3.9 yards per carry.

Last time these two teams met, the Panthers held the Bucs to 78 rushing yards at 2.9 yards per carry. They were able to rush for 163 yards at 4.2 yards per carry against the terrible Buccaneers defense.

This is a Tampa Bay team that is mailing-in the season, and the young and hungry Panthers will be more than happy to hand them another loss.

Prediction: Panthers 32, Buccaneers 17.

*Point spreads via Football Locks.

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