NFL Picks Week 16: Biggest Locks of the Week

If we learned one thing in Week 15, it's that you truly can't take anything for granted this season. The Green Bay Packers aren't even a lock to win and the Indianapolis Colts aren't even a lock to lose.

As such, I'm suddenly quite wary to call anything a lock. Doing so could very well result in embarrassment.

But I'm going to give it a shot. Despite what we learned in Week 15, there are some locks to be found on the Week 16 slate. I have narrowed down five in particular.

Let's discuss them.

Note: all odds according to Sportsbook.

Denver Broncos (-3) at Buffalo Bills

OK, so Tim Tebow is not all powerful. That was another thing we learned, and it was Tom Brady and the New England Patriots who did the teaching.

Nevertheless, Tebow and the Broncos are still one of the league's better teams, and they will be looking for revenge on Saturday at the Buffalo Bills.

And revenge they shall have. The Bills are in the midst of a seven-game losing streak, during which they've been badly outplayed by all comers. They just don't have enough defense to keep teams under wraps, and they don't have enough offense to keep pace. After looking so not like the Bills earlier in the season, they look like the Bills.

Expect Denver's defense to get back on track in a big way, and the Broncos run-heavy offense should have more than enough punch to stick it to the Bills.

Broncos 24, Bills 20 

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-10)

Contrary to popular belief, the Dolphins really aren't all that horrible. They've proved as much by winning five of their last seven games.

But asking them to beat the Patriots in New England is a bit much. The Pats are on a roll at the moment, and it even seems like their defense is coming around. Finally.

Besides, let's not forget what Tom Brady did to the Dolphins way back in Week 1. All he did was throw for 517 yards and four touchdowns.

Brady won't be that awesome on Saturday, but he will be awesome enough to run New England's win streak to seven straight games.

Patriots 34, Dolphins 21

New York Giants at New York Jets (-3)

Just when it looked like the Giants and Jets were ready to finish strong, both of them went back to sucking in Week 15, and it wasn't pretty.

This is a must-win game for both teams, especially for the Giants, as they will risk being knocked out of the NFC East race if they lose.

Sadly, the Jets are a better team than the Giants. This has a lot to do with health, as the Jets are not forced to tough it out with spare parts in their starting lineup week after week. It helps that they are very strong defensively, and they have the goods to make Eli Manning human enough to come away with a victory.

In all likelihood, this will mean the end of the Giants' playoff hopes.

Jets 27, Giants 20

Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins (-6.5)

A big reason why the Giants are in such a hole is because the Redskins put them there with a surprise victory in Week 15.

The Redskins will be looking to do the same to a Vikings team that has been in a hole all season. This is a matchup that favors Rex Grossman, as the Vikings have maybe the worst pass defense in the NFL. Their secondary is truly awful and was last seen giving up over 400 yards passing and five touchdowns to Drew Brees.

Grossman won't do that much, but he'll do enough. Defensively, all the Redskins will have to do is contain Adrian Peterson, and they'll be golden. Christian Ponder is not going to beat them, and neither will Joe Webb if the Vikings decide to use him instead.

Redskins 31, Vikings 17

San Francisco 49ers (-2) at Seattle Seahawks

If the 49ers can handle the Pittsburgh Steelers, then surely they can handle the Seahawks.

My first reaction is to say "Don't be so sure," but the truth is that this matchup does favor the 49ers. The Seahawks rely on Marshawn Lynch to generate their offense, and he's going to be in for tough sledding against a 49ers defense that simply does not yield to opposing running backs.

When the 49ers are successful in stopping Lynch, it will be up to Tarvaris Jackson to shoulder the load for the Seahawks. That's not what he's made for, and you can expect him to make more than a couple mistakes before this game is over.

In other words, it will be a typical 49ers win.

49ers 23, Seahawks 16