NFL Picks Week 16: 4 Betting Lines That Seem out of Whack
The Las Vegas oddsmakers’ betting lines for four games next week seem a bit off.
It’s the NFL, so you never know what’s going to happen. Heck, look at the Kansas City Chiefs. If you predicted the Chiefs to upset the Green Bay Packers, then you’re either lucky or just plain dumb.
Either way, the Chiefs ended the Packers' winning streak and now Green Bay is 13-1. So most of the time, these odds don't mean a thing and can be hard to predict, but these oddsmakers should at least get in the ballpark.
Sometimes, it looks like these guys just throw some numbers out there without putting any thought into it and that's no different for Week 16.
These are the games that the oddsmakers got wrong for Week 16.
Detroit Lions: -2.5 vs. San Diego Chargers at Home
1 of 4Let me get this straight.
The Detroit Lions and the San Diego Chargers are both on winning streaks, but the Chargers are on a three-game winning streak while the Lions are on a two-game winning streak.
More importantly, the Chargers had more impressive victories and they're the underdogs in this one? The Lions barely escaped with victories over the Minnesota Vikings and Oakland Raiders while the Chargers blew out the Jacksonville Jaguars, Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens.
Yes, the same Ravens team that was 10-3 going into the game.
This is how this game will go: Like always, the Lions will fall behind and then they’ll play catchup like they always do, but this time they won’t be able to finish the trick.
See, this Chargers team is heating up and as always, they’re tough to beat in December. So giving San Diego 2.5 points absolutely blows my mind. Gamblers, take advantage of this huge miscue.
San Francisco 49ers: -3 vs. Seattle Seahawks in Seattle
2 of 4Just for fun, let’s play the numbers game for a minute. The San Francisco 49ers are 10-3 and the Seattle Seahawks are 7-7.
The 49ers are the eighth-best team in the league when it comes to rushing the football and they’re the best in the NFL at shutting down the run.
Isn’t running the football what the Seahawks love to do? Isn’t Marshawn Lynch their weapon of choice?
I’ll give the Seahawks defense credit, but their offense hasn’t impressed me in the least.
Going against Patrick Willis (who will probably be back) and this dominant defense, I don’t like the Seahawks' chances of keeping this one close. I see the 49ers winning this game by at least a touchdown, so I’d take the points with the 49ers in a heartbeat.
Plain and simple, Willis and the 49ers give up 70 yards a game rushing and I can’t see Lynch having that big of an impact on this game because of that.
Therefore, the Seahawks will struggle to get points on the board.
New Orleans Saints: -7 vs. Atlanta Falcons at Home
3 of 4Now I know the New Orleans Saints are hot, but do these oddsmakers know this rivalry? Just about every time the Saints and the Atlanta Falcons play, it goes down to the wire.
The last three times these teams played each other, it’s come down to a field goal. If you were to add up the margins of those last three games, you would get nine total points so I think a seven-point spread is a bit ridiculous.
The Saints are on a six-game winning streak, but the Falcons are on a two-game winning streak and, more importantly, Julio Jones is finding his groove.
Going against a weak secondary, Jones could cause plenty of problems for the Saints and we could have a good ol’ fashioned shootout.
Both teams always bring out the best in one another and history shows that this game is going to come down to a field goal. Seven points is far too much.
Denver Broncos: -2 vs. Buffalo Bills in Buffalo
4 of 4The Denver Tebows are giving up two points to the Buffalo Bills, and while I don’t think the Denver Broncos are that great of a football team, I certainly believe they’re better than the Bills.
Getting favored by two points over the Bills is almost an insult. The Bills are on a seven-game losing streak, and since starting the season hot, they’ve looked pretty terrible.
I can’t see this Bills offense scoring on this Broncos defense, and even though the Broncos lost to the New England Patriots, I think Tim Tebow had a pretty good outing.
I’m a believer in Tebow and I’m a believer in this rushing game and I'm a believer in this defense—in short, I'm a believer in the Broncos. The Bills are giving up 140 rushing yards a game and that doesn’t bode well going against the best rushing attack in the league.
The Broncos will get their first win by double digits since Week 9.
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