Philadelphia Eagles: 1 Chance in 16 to Make the Playoffs, Better Than None

Michael Vick and the Philadelphia Eagles still are alive to make the playoffs. The chances are very slim, there is no room for error but they are still alive. Despite the terrible season and the missed expectations, the Eagles will make the playoffs if four things happen.

1) The Eagles defeat the Cowboys

2) The Eagles defeat the Redskins

3) The Jets defeat the Giants

4) The Giants defeat the Cowboys

If you give either outcome of each game an equally likely chance, then this means that the Eagles have a one-in-16, or six percent, chance of making the playoffs. At the racetrack, this would get you 15-1 odds. Not something you might want to bet on, but just remember the unlikely sequence of events that let the Packers sneak into the playoffs last year.

However, maybe each outcome of the game is not equally likely. For example, since the Eagles defeated both the Cowboys and the Redskins earlier, it might be reasonable to assume that the Eagles have a better than 50 percent chance of winning these games. And since the Giants defeated the Cowboys in an earlier game and are playing at home, maybe their chance of winning that game is better than 50 percent.

So let's look at the most optimistic scenarios from the Eagles' perspective:

1) The Eagles defeat the Cowboys (55 percent chance)

2) The Eagles defeat the Redskins (75 percent chance)

3) The Jets defeat the Giants (60 percent chance)

4) The Giants defeat the Cowboys (60 percent chance)

Now the probability of the Eagles making the playoffs increases to 15 percent. At the racetrack this would get you 7-1 odds. So maybe that it is something you would drop a few dollars on.

In any case at this point in the season, with the horrible losses the Eagles have experienced, just being alive for the holidays is a great gift to their fans.