NFL Playoff Scenarios: Why New Orleans Saints Must Overtake 49ers for No. 2 Seed

The Saints are clearly a team that needs the benefit of home-field advantage when they get to the postseason. That's when the cold weather hits, and that kind of thing hurts teams like New Orleans. 

Now, if the Packers win their first game, the Saints can do nothing about that. They are going to have to take a trip to Lambeau Field. But in order to get to that game, they need to find a way to top the 49ers and get the No. 2 seed in the NFC. 

Candlestick Park will be a rough spot for the Saints to play. It's always one of the worst fields in the NFL and San Francisco in January brings the distinct threat of rain. Worse, it brings the threat of fog.

The 49ers are better equipped to handle those conditions. They run the ball and rely on field position. When the 49ers win, they win ugly. That works for them. That's what they will need to do in Candlestick Park. 

While the Saints are red hot, they have only won three games outdoors all season. The only win to a team with a winning record was against the Titans last week. None of the three games showed off the Saints' strengths. 

In the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, the Saints speed and pure passing ability will be too much for the 49ers. Yes, they do have a good defense, but the Saints blitz packages and 49ers inability to score touchdowns would be too much for them to overcome. 

And that's what we're looking at now. There's almost no way that the 49ers and Saints won't be the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds of the NFC. That order may fluctuate, but the 49ers will hold all relevant tiebreakers.

To get to a showdown, the 49ers or Saints would need to get through the Lions. Both have already beaten Detroit. The 49ers did so in Detroit; the Saints did so convincingly. So, when the divisional playoffs roll around, the odds are great that we're going to see the 49ers and Saints square off.

Right now, that game would seem to benefit the Saints—they're clearly the hotter team. But the reality is that, to get to Lambeau Field and play the Packers, they need to take on the 49ers in New Orleans. Too much works against them if the teams play in San Francisco. 

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