Hoops Analysis: How will the Bucks do in the B1G?

Dave Thurman (3:12 pm)

In just over two weeks, the Ohio State basketball team will begin their B1G season, hosting Northwestern before heading three days later to Bloomington, Indiana, to face a suddenly scary Hoosier team.  What should we expect from the Buckeyes, and how will they do in an improved and very strong B1G conference?  What have we learned from the first nine games of the season that will help us forecast the rest of the year?  Although The Silver Bullet is mostly a football site, we take on those questions as 2011 comes to a close, and fans look ahead to what they hope is a special 2012 NCAA tournament.

What we have learned thus far:

Although the season is still in its early stages, enough games have been played to help viewers form a few opinions.  Here are some things that have become clear to me after nine games:

This team has the potential to be special.  The 85-63 victory November 29th over Duke was reason for optimism, as Ohio State took command early in a game when pretty much everything went right.  Although I wasn't ready to crown the Buckeyes the next national champions, that game certainly opened a lot of eyes across the nation and demonstrated what this team is capable of doing. 

Although deeper than past teams, Thad is still most comfortable playing seven.  The bench on this year's team has exciting depth: Evan Ravenel, Jordan Sibert, Shannon Scott, J.D. Weatherspoon, Sam Thompson and Amir Williams.  A coach like Rick Pitino would make sure ten guys were playing significant minutes every night but that is not Matta's M.O.  There are advantages to both styles, but this team does have the horses if they want to use them. 

---

The 2011-12 team will go as far as Jared Sullinger can carry them.  Considering Sully has missed the past two games due to back spasms that is cause for concern.  With him this is a potential Final Four team.  Without him, they might get knocked out of the tournament in the first game.  He is that good...and that vital to the hopes of this year's squad.

William Buford continues to be a streaky player.  I am convinced that Buford is more comfortable being a complimentary player than the star that is looked upon to carry the team.  Some might disagree, but one thing is for sure - Buf is a hot and cold shooter who can torch a team one night and go into a deep freeze the next.  To make a run in the NCAA tourney this team needs him to put together a handful of consistent performances, because one off night could seal their fate. 

This is not a good 3-point shooting team.  Last year the Buckeyes were as good as there was in the nation, canning 7.7 3's a game, and making .423 of their attempts.  This year's squad is making less than 5 a game while only shooting .328 from beyond the arc.  Opponents are not only shooting a higher percentage than OSU but also making more per game.  All of this is proof positive of the importance of Jared Sullinger in the low post. 

Lenzelle Smith needs to develop his offensive game.  I really like Smith Jr., who has taken on the David Lighty role of playing sticky defense and providing intangibles. He is athletic, rebounds extremely well for a guard, and is a nice passer.  But he is not looking to score nearly enough, and must become more aggressive offensively for this team to advance. 

How it will go in the B1G:

After watching a number of games from across the country, I am convinced that the Big Ten is the toughest conference in the nation this season, which was substantiated by the way they dismantled the ACC in the annual challenge between the two conferences.  The rise of Indiana makes for an even more challenging season, and it is difficult to forecast how things will go.  However, I do believe that a healthy Sully makes the Buckeyes the team to beat.  Whether or not he is able to play through the season, and do so without pain, is a big question mark, but my picks are based on the assumption that he will be good to go. 

1. Ohio State - You have to love a team with a point guard like Aaron Craft who has a 2.5-1 assist to turnover ratio and averages nearly 3 steals a game.  In college basketball the point guard is probably the most important position.  Add that to the formidable inside presence of Jared Sullinger and you have a dynamic duo.  With Buford and DeShaun Thomas on the wings, this is an explosive team that is capable of beating anyone in the country on the right night.  My hope is that the team utilizes their depth a little more as the season progresses.
2. Wisconsin - When push comes to shove this team knows how to win even if it is ugly.  And Jordan Taylor is the best point guard in the country, in my opinion.
3. Michigan State - There are holes in this team, but Tom Izzo is a great coach, and the Spartans are relentless on the boards.
4. Illinois - I'm not sure why the Illini are playing so well, and they could slip all the way down to number seven in a heartbeat, but so far they have impressed me.
5. Indiana - Most people felt this team was still a year away but their victory over Kentucky this past week served notice that the Hoosiers are back.  I think they will have some tough nights in the B1G, and still lack athleticism in spots, but they are talented.
6. Michigan - Some prognosticators has UM in the preseason top ten, but thus far they have disappointed.  However, the potential is there for them to rise up a few spots if they put it all together.
7. Purdue - If Robbie Hummel stays healthy this is an NCAA tourney team that could make some noise.  If he gets hurts again they will go down in flames pretty quickly. 
8. Northwestern.  Is this the year the Wildcats make the Big Dance?  It just might be as John Shurna and Drew Crawford are big-time players.
9. Minnesota.  Tubby's team lost their star when Trevor Mbakwe went down and will struggle in the rugged B1G conference.
10. Nebraska.  Don't know enough about this team to comment, but they will probably be in the bottom three in their inaugural season in a new conference.
11. Penn State.  The Nittany Lions or the Hawkeyes? You pick the bottom team because they are both bad.
12. Iowa.  See above.