UFC 140 Fight Card: Which Fighter Has the Most to Gain?

UFC 140: Jones vs. Machida is set to take place this Saturday, Dec. 10, at the Air Canada Centre in Toronto. The main event features light heavyweight belt-holder Jon Jones against former champ Lyoto Machida.

One of the cool things about MMA events is that, even in the deepest bowels of the undercard, you routinely have drama. Guys making their debuts, fighting for their jobs, etc. You've got kickboxing vs. jiu-jitsu, Brazil vs. Japan and lots of other interesting stylistic matchups.

If you know the players and their stories, you can get sucked into literally every single fight. Easily.

That said, some fights come a little more drama-packed than others. So who has the most to gain Saturday night? 

If you saw the article from yours truly on who has the most to lose, you might wager that Claude Patrick—stepping in on short notice for an injured Rory MacDonald against rising veteran Brian Ebersole—is my pick.

But he's not. It's a good pick, but where's the sport in that? Whither the intrigue, man?

So instead, I'm picking the challenger in the evening's main event: Mr. Machida.

I'm telling you: This guy gets dissected and reconstituted and picked apart again more regularly and thoroughly than any other non-champion or non-Chael Sonnen fighter out there.

Is his distinctive karate style "The Next Big Thing," or is it already outmoded?  Is he the sport's true great enigma, or just smoke and mirrors? A defensive wizard, or an offensive troll?

With a win this Saturday, Machida doesn't just have a chance to silence all the talk (or at least get all the talkers back on his side). He has a chance to reestablish the continuum of the Machida Era. 

A win over Jones—probably the most fantastic and heavily hyped athlete in the sport today, and possibly ever—could erase those losses to Shogun Rua and Quinton Jackson. Suddenly, Machida's defeats—and not his victories—would be the outliers once again.  

And if he loses? Well, it's Jon-freaking-Jones, for goodness' sake. He's a very heavy favorite right now, and with good reason.

Unless Machida gets knocked out in 20 seconds and pees himself on the way down, no one is going to think a great deal less of him. It would simply reaffirm Machida's status as a very good fighter who doesn't have the formula to consistently overtake the great ones, of which Jones is undoubtedly one.

In other words, Machida is playing with the casino's money in this one. A win would show he has the tools not only to wear the gold, but beat the house.