NFL Week 14 Picks: Stay Away from Colts vs. Ravens and These Sky-High Spreads

Sometimes a spread is just too high to mess with.

The Patriots didn’t even come close to covering the 21-point spread last week against the Colts, and don’t expect the Ravens to beat Indy by over 16 either.

There are simply too many factors that go into any given game. Who could have predicted that the Pats would essentially treat the Colts as a preseason opponent? The Ravens have a history this season of playing down to their opponent and aren’t going to take this game too seriously.

They don’t need to.

Expect a lot of key starters to sit in the second half as Dan Orlovsky does enough for the second consecutive backdoor cover.

Key Trends

Colts are 13-5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Colts are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.

Ravens are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Prediction: Ravens 25 Colts 13

Oakland Raiders +11 at Green Bay Packers

The Raiders are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Dolphins, which likely moved the spread two to three points. The injury to Darren McFadden doesn’t help.

Sure, it was a stink bomb, but it is also extra motivation. As they watch the Denver Tebows race by them in the division, this is almost a must-win at Lambeau Field.

You can expect a full effort from the Raiders in every phase of the game. The Packers continue to squeak by, and their pass defense is still susceptible to big plays. Carson Palmer will be able to move the ball, and as long as the defense can get a few stops, this is going down to the fourth quarter.

Key Trends:

Raiders are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss.

Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Prediction: Packers 34 Raiders 27

Kansas City Chiefs +9 @ New York Jets

The Chiefs may be dealing with Tyler Palko at QB, but the defense is still playing hard. They gave up a mere 13 points to the Steelers despite all of the Palko turnovers that put the Steelers in great field position two weeks ago. Last week they held the Bears to a grand total of three points.

The Jets are incredibly difficult to figure out. One week they are barely beating the Bills, the next they are crushing the Redskins. The thing about last week’s Redskins game was that it was tied until the final five minutes.

You can’t trust the Jets, especially with the 20th-ranked pass offense and 24th-ranked rushing attack.

Key Trends:

Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings

Chiefs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.

Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.

Prediction: Jets 23 Chiefs 16

(Spreads courtesy of Covers.com)