NFL Week 14 Picks: Evaluating the 3 Biggest Line Movements of the Week

The midweek line movements in NFL games can tell you two things:

1. Vegas overvalued the public’s opinion on a certain team and has to adjust to the flow of money coming in on their opponent.

2. Injury updates during the week that give you a better idea if a certain star player will or will not play on Sunday.

Here are three line movements that were adjusted for one of the above reasons:

(Lines courtesy of vegasinsider.com)

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers: Opened -11, Now -14

The Steelers were very quiet during the middle half of the season, beating the Jaguars by four at home and the Chiefs by four when both games were double-digit spreads.

Vegas looked at this as an overreaction to a team the always get a lot of action from gamblers. After Pittsburgh dismantled the Bengals by 28, Vegas was slow to adjust to the public. The money has been flowing in and it has caused the line to jump an entire field goal.

The Browns keep games tight more often than not, but it looks like the 14-point disinterested loss to Baltimore has given the public enough confidence that they have given up on the season. For that reason, the Browns go from +6.5 at home against the Ravens to +14 against Pittsburgh on the road.

On a short week on the road, it’s hard to see the Browns keeping up with the explosive Steelers pass offense.

Prediction: Steelers 27 Browns 10

Buffalo Bills at San Diego Chargers: Opened -4.5, Now -7

This is all about the Chargers' dominant performance against the Jaguars in front of a national audience on Monday Night Football.

QB Philip Rivers didn’t take any stupid shots down the field, the defense looked like they actually cared and the running game was effective. The O-line is getting a tad healthier as well. It was a total team effort and the betting public noticed as much.

The other factor to the equation is the current state of the Bills. They have lost five games in a row and Fred Jackson for the rest of the season. The injuries are piling up, which is never a good thing considering how bad the vibes are in Buffalo right now.

Prediction: Chargers 31 Bills 17

New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans: Opened -5.5, Now -3.5

What’s the deal? The Saints have won and covered four weeks in a row and have looked like the team to challenge the Packers.

The line change is because of the Saints' 3-3 record on the road and the fact that eight of Drew Brees’ 11 interceptions are away from the Superdome.

I wouldn’t read much into that.

The Saints are playing their best football of the season right now and the Titans are nothing more than an average team that is good enough to beat the Bills on the road and lose to the Bengals at home.

Prediction: Saints 28 Titans 21