NFL Picks Week 14: 5 Favorites You Must Avoid

We are late in the NFL season; injuries and other factors are taking their toll. This is as much a survival of the fittest as it is a talent competition.

The Chicago Bears would have normally been favored this week against Tim Tebow and Denver, but without Jay Cutler and Matt Forte, they are not.

You are safe to ride the Tebow wave this week, but there are five teams favored that you best stay away from in Week 14. Here they are.

All lines are from footballlocks.com

Cincinnati Bengals -3 over Houston Texans

Two AFC playoff contenders here. The Texans are leading their division, but they are down to their third QB and possibly without star WR Andre Johnson.

Still, the Texans stellar defense is in place, as is their equally potent running game. I expect the Texans to lean even heavier on Arian Foster and the third best rushing attack in the NFL.

The Bengals have been reeling losing three of their last four, and even though they are at home, this is a scary game to take the favorite.

Miami Dolphins -3 over Philadelphia Eagles

The Dolphins have really been playing well over the past five weeks, especially on defense. They are at home against the disappointing Eagles, with Mike Vick expected to return.

The Eagles are still a very talented bunch who figure to play well with the return of Vick. The Dolphins still don't boast a high-powered offense built to take advantage of the Eagles defensive shortcomings.

The Eagles will win this game. I would stay away from the favorite.

Atlanta Falcons -2.5 over Carolina Panthers

It is no easy proposition to beat an improvisational QB with weapons on the road. Add in that this QB is the best looking rookie QB in recent memory, and things get even more dicey.

The Falcons can certainly not afford a letdown, as the Panthers have put points on the board all season. The Panthers have scored less than 20 points only three times this year, with Cam Newton accounting for 26 TDs this season. 

The Panthers dropped the first meeting by 14 points, but this will be different. Beware.

Jacksonville Jaguars Pick over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This battle of Florida squads is far too close to call. There is a good chance, that amidst the hot seat talk for Raheem Morris, his team will rally to his aid, ala the Dolphins for Tony Sporano.

In either direction, this is a game best avoided.

Dallas Cowboys -3.5 over NY Giants

The Cowboys are coming off of a painful OT loss to the Arizona Cardinals, while the Giants fell just short of handing the Packers their first loss. 

The Giants are almost right in terms of chemistry and health. This could easily be decided by a FG or less, either way.

Something tells me the Giants, with a renewed running game, will win outright. This is a high stakes division rivalry I'd avoid.