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BCS Bowl Projections: New Predictions Based on Houston's Loss

John RozumDec 3, 2011

On Saturday the Houston Cougars fell to the Southern Miss Golden Eagles in the Conference USA championship, 49-28. The Cougars were previously ranked No. 6 in the BCS and stood as just one of two teams left that were undefeated.

Now with Houston out of the picture, it's for certain that the BCS landscape will change.

How? Well, let's take a look and find out.

Rose Bowl: Michigan State vs Oregon

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Obviously seeing Michigan State listed here means they're beating Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game.

That said, their opponent will be the Oregon Ducks of the Pac-12 who defeated UCLA on Friday. As for the game, the Spartans have a defense that has the ability to shutdown Oregon's offense.

However, the Spartans offense is not nearly as explosive as the Ducks, in addition to Oregon's defense being rather opportunistic.

Look for Oregon RB LaMichael James to have another good game as Sparty has not faced a team all season on Oregon's level. Not to mention how fast the Ducks play—just ask Andrew Luck.

Michigan State may have one of the better defenses Oregon has faced all year, but the Ducks had decent success against LSU, and we all know how good the Bayou Bengals are.

Oregon 34, Michigan State 20

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State vs Stanford

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This would be one interesting game as Andrew Luck goes against a defense in Oklahoma State who's great at causing turnovers.

As for the Cardinal defense, they have their hands full with Oklahoma State's Justin Blackmon and Brandon Weeden.

Both would be arguably the best player at their respective positions that Stanford has faced all season, so the question would be how many points can Andrew Luck muster?

Obviously more if he doesn't turn the ball over and Stanford's D minimizes the damage however, we've seen Stanford struggle against fast teams before (Oregon, USC) so don't count on them controlling the tempo.

Here, RB Stepfan Taylor is the key as his production may slow the game down. But don't count on the Cardinal defense blanking the Pokes offense.

Oklahoma State 38, Stanford 27

Sugar Bowl: Virginia Tech vs TCU

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With Clemson winning the ACC, the Virginia Tech Hokies get a BCS at-large bid into the Sugar Bowl. The Hokies won't drop far enough to be left out of the BCS, so that negates the Michigan Wolverines from getting a bid.

And their opponent will be the TCU Horned Frogs who become just eligible enough as the highest ranked non-BCS conference champion. Perhaps the SEC's dominance has favored a team like TCU, because now there's limited BCS teams to select inside the Top 14 for an at-large bid.

Nonetheless, when coach Gary Patterson's team plays Va-Tech they'll have a hard time stopping QB Logan Thomas who has accounted for 28 total TDs and almost 3,000 yards.

The Horned Frogs defense this season has been rather susceptible to great QB play, so don't expect anything different against Thomas. Additionally, TCU's offense has yet to face a defense such as Virginia Tech's.

Frank Beamer's dark-side allows just 15.5 points per game and ranks No. 7 in the nation.

Virginia Tech 35, TCU 17

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Orange Bowl: Clemson vs West Virginia

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An ACC title puts Clemson in the Orange Bowl against West Virginia from the Big East. And although it looks like a good matchup, the Tigers will roll.

For one, Clemson has played a much more difficult schedule and has one of the nation's most explosive offenses with QB Tajh Boyd and WR Sammy Watkins. West Virginia's best win was over then-ranked No. 23 Cincinnati earlier in November.

What also hurts the Mountaineers is their defense. They allow almost 28 points per game and Clemson scores almost 35.

Now to enhance the Tigers, they went into Blacksburg and defeated Virginia Tech as well as having wins over Florida State and Auburn. West Virginia simply hasn't faced a schedule nearly as strong and Clemson will be just too much.

Clemson 41, West Virginia 24

BCS National Title: LSU vs. Alabama

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As if there's any debate who's going to the national title game: LSU and Alabama.

In the first game it was defense and that won't change in the rematch.

Both teams have by far the best defenses in the country and no high-powered offense would move the ball consistently against them. That said, don't expect a lot from either offense in the national title game.

What it will come down to, however, is special teams.

Alabama's Marquis Maze is solid, but he's not on the level of LSU's Tyrann Mathieu. The kicking game is virtually even because two of the Tide's missed FGs the first time were from 50-plus and another was from 40-plus.

In a game of that magnitude you can't expect a young kicker to make those kinds of long-distance FGs. This time around, The Honey Badger wins the field position battle over Maze and LSU wins another national title.

LSU 13, Alabama 9

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