NFL Week 13 Picks: Atlanta Falcons and the No-Brainer Bets of the Week

Are the Vegas oddsmakers drinking on the job this week?

The linesmakers have set three lines in Week 13 that vault off the paper as must-plays. There are various factors that go into the thought process of making these spreads and I’m here to help you crush them. Take these three bets:

(Spreads courtesy of Covers.com)

Atlanta Falcons -1.5 @ Houston Texans

I understand that the Texans are currently the No. 1 seed in the AFC behind the third best running attack and a defense that ranks in the top five against both the run and the pass.

But that was with QBs with NFL experience. T.J. Yates is making his first career start and the rookie from North Carolina is in over his head. As a third-stringer, he rarely even received practice reps within the offense.

The Falcons possess the second ranked run defense and should be able to contain Arian Foster by stacking eight in the box. They are going to force Yates into lots of second and 3rd-and-long situations that will play right into the Falcons hands. With an Atlanta offense that is beginning to speed up the tempo and find a rhythm, expect the road team to walk away with the win.

Key Trends:

Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Falcons are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 road games.

Texans are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as an underdog.

Prediction: Falcons 27 Texans 17

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5

The Bucs are underachieving this season, but the four-win team does sport a 3-3 record a home. On the flip side, the Panthers only road win of the last two years came last week against the historically bad Indianapolis Colts.

Mobile QB sensation Cam Newton has hit the rookie wall and the defense can’t stop the opponents running game. They can’t get off the field which means it limits the opportunities for Newton.

Expect Josh Freeman to have a field day as the Bucs remind the Panthers why they are the worst team in the NFC South.

Key Trends:

Panthers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a road underdog.

Buccaneers are 6-2-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.

Prediction: Bucs 33 Panthers 24

Dallas Cowboys -4.5 @ Arizona Cardinals

Let’s not overthink this one.

Tony Romo vs. John Skelton.

The Cardinals are a mess and the only bright spot is when Patrick Peterson returns punts. In fact, that seems to be the only time they win games.

As long as they avoid Peterson, DeMarco Murray will gash the horrific Cards defense and Romo will take care of the rest.

Key Trends:

Cowboys are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

Cardinals are 2-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Prediction: Cowboys 34 Cardinals 21