NFL Week 13 Picks: Big Favorites You Can Count on to Cover

Betting on the NFL would be much easier if all the favorites were never favored by more than a point. 

Instead, the Vegas number crunchers occasionally have to go and assign massive point spreads to teams that are favored to win, making picking them that much harder. Jerks.

I'm afraid that putting up with these spreads is a part of life. The only question we have to ask ourselves is a simple one:

Which big favorites are actually going to cover?

In Week 13, there are four big favorites in particular that I think are going to get the job done.

Note: all spreads according to Bodog.

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-21)

There are big point spreads, and then there is this point spread. Calling it "big" doesn't quite cut it, and only a fool would have to consider picking the Patriots to cover.

Well, I've often been accused of foolishness, so I figure I may as well be the one to fall on this sword. 

Believe it or not, the possibility of the Patriots covering is more real than you may think. They have rediscovered their offense in recent weeks, and their defense is playing much better than it did earlier in the season. They are perfectly capable of dominating any game they play.

Besides, the Colts are awful. In fact, they're awful enough to hand the ball over to Dan Orlovsky, who hasn't won a game as a starter since...

Um, a long time ago. I'm not sure, exactly.

All things considered, I think this one's going to be as big a laugher as the spread suggests.

Patriots 38, Colts 7

Baltimore Ravens (-7) at Cleveland Browns

At first glance, this looks like the kind of trap game that the Ravens have specialized in losing this season. For examples, see their losses to Tennessee, Jacksonville and Seattle.

This time around, I'm prepared to give the Ravens the benefit of the doubt. They're playing very good football at the moment, and I'm banking on the notion that they've learned their lesson from their three prior disappointments.

One thing we know for sure is that the Browns offense is not going to pose much of a threat in this game. They are a rotten offensive team, and the Ravens might be the best defensive team in the NFL.

If the Ravens defense actually bothers to show up, I think they're going to have enough offense to cover.

Ravens 24, Browns 13

St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-14)

Speaking of the Ravens, we now come to the team they just beat, the San Francisco 49ers. 

The 49ers were humbled a little bit on Thanksgiving, but they are still a very, very good team. Against a very, very bad Rams team, they should have no trouble whatsoever getting back on the right track.

The only issue with the idea of the 49ers covering in this game is whether or not they'll be able to conjure enough offense. Personally, I like the idea of Frank Gore going up against the Rams' pitiful rush defense, and I think he's poised to have a big day.

If so, the 49ers will be able to get back to the way they win football games: pound 'em with the run and suffocate 'em on defense.

It's going to be a long day for the Rams.

49ers 27, Rams 10

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-9)

The Saints have played five home games so far this season, and they've won four of them by double-digit points.

I'm thinking they're about to make it five of six against the Lions on Sunday night. The Saints are on a roll offensively, and they'll be taking on a Lions team that seems to be fading a little more every week.

It helps that the Lions are going to be without their best defensive player in this game, as Ndamukong Suh has been suspended two games for his stomping antics on Thanksgiving. Drew Brees will be thankful for not having to deal with Suh in this game.

I think we can also expect Brees to continue his quest to break Dan Marino's record for passing yards in a single season. The Lions' pass defense is actually pretty good, but a quarterback as good as Brees shouldn't have much trouble doing his thing.

Saints 31, Lions 17