How Many Prospects Does It Take to Make One Major Leaguer?

I was pouring over the Nationals' farm clubs minor league stats in preparation for a series of articles that will start next month. I began to feel much better about the state of the team's minor league system, and began to count the players that—based on stats and comments by team management—seem destined to succeed at the major league level.

I got to 15, though by no means is this list totally inclusive:

Colin Balestar, Garrett Mock, Jack McGeary, Jeff Smoker, Colton Willems, Jordan Zimmermann, Michael Burgess, Chris Marrero, Justin Maxwell, Shairon Martis, Leonard Davis, Bill Rinehart, Smiley Gonzalez, Derick Norris, and Ross Detweiler.

That's 15 out of roughly 150 players (not counting the Dominican teams), not exactly a large number to be sure.

I then compared the current Nationals' with three teams' farm clubs from 2000, the Expos, Yankees, and Braves. I was trying to see how many players each team had seven years ago that made it to the major leagues and made some contribution. I didn't count guys who failed, only those who either started or was valuable as a reserve player:

Braves [eight]: Wes Helms, Mark De Rosa, Marcus Giles, Jason Marquis, Ryan Langerhans, Rafael Furcal, Horacio Ramirez, and Wilson Betemit.

Yankees [six]: Ted Lilly, Alfonso Soriano, Zach Day (stretching my parameters just a bit), Juan Rivera, Brandon Claussen, Wily Mo Pena, and Chien Ming Wang.

Expos [nine]: Tony Armas, Milton Bradley, Brian Schneider, Joey Eischen, Brad Wilkerson, Jamey Carroll, Brandon Phillips, Shawn Hill, and Grady Sizemore.

So it would seem that at any given time, there are about seven to eight players in any given minor league system that will make it to the major leagues and produce. So what does that mean for the Nationals?

So, if a well-stocked farm system is going to produce seven players, then one like the Nationals, better than it was but still not fully productive, will probably produce four or five.

And the 15 I counted didn't include several others who were considered real prospects just a year or so ago, players like Larry Broadway, Kory Casto, Adam Carr, and Ian Desmond.

I could probably make a case that 25-30 Nats' players have the potential to become major leaguers. A little more digging at baseball-reference.com found that roughly 20% of true prospects have a productive major league career. So if the Nationals have 30 players we consider talented, we would then expect roughly six of them to play in Washington one day.

Of all the various minor league levels, the one most bereft of future major leaguers was at the rookie league level, and it just so happens that is where many of the Nationals'  "prospects" played over the last couple of seasons.

That's not terribly promising for the here and now.

Without a doubt, the Nationals' future is much brighter today than it was a year or two ago. That said, we can't assume that each one of these promising kids is going to make it to Washington.

Which ones might make it?

It's hard to say. I'd guess that two out of the Marrero -  Maxwell - Burgess - Rinehart - Norris group and four among Balestar - Mock - McGeary - Willems - Zimmermann - Martis - Detweiler and Smoker will have some impact at the major league level, be it with the Nationals or another organization.

Of course, help is on the way in the form of Steven Strasburg, the presumptive number one pick in the 2009 amateur draft. He'll probably be in the Nationals' rotation by next September.

But all of this is just a guess. Unlike the NFL and NBA, projecting baseball players is more art than science.