Week 11 Monday Night Football: 5 Hot-to-Trot Tips for the Big Game

Monday Night Football sees the high-flying New England Patriots at home to face the Kansas City Chiefs. New England is 6-3 and a win would make them very hard to run down in the AFC East, whereas the Chiefs' season really sits on the line if they're going to keep pace with the rest of the AFC West. Whether you're on the couch after a tough day, at the office or out somewhere else, here are five hot-to-trot tips for the game and a dead-easy way to make a dollar or two.

1. Head-to-head

It would take a brave soul to go against the New England Patriots at home, especially when they're coming up against the lackluster Kansas City Chiefs. Tom Brady has been his usual brilliant self this year throwing for 326 yards per game and 23 touchdowns so far. Chiefs QB Matt Cassel is out with  injury and does not inspire any hope of a Chiefs' victory here.

Prediction: New England

2. Margin and spread

I think we've all got the point by now that New England loves to score points and they like to score a lot of them. They're currently averaging 28.8 points per game and over 430 yards per game. Against a Chiefs' side allowing 24.4 points per game and only scoring 15.7 points per game, it looks like it could be a huge win for the Patriots here.

The Patriots' running game will face some difficulty against the Chiefs, and by dropping several back, Brady may be forced to hand it off to Green-Ellis more than he wants. Whilst solid enough in the run department — 105.9 yards per game — the Patriots' real weapon is their aerial game.Against a Kansas City pass defense that has already given up 40 throws of 20-plus yards and four throws of 40-plus yards, they could have another field day.

Whilst much has been made of the fact that the Chiefs could keep this game tight, I think the opposite may be on the cards. Brady and the offense will want to show that the Patriots are a genuine threat again this year, and tend to use these midseason games as a statement for games to come.

I think at home on a Monday night, the Patriots are going on all cylinders and there's no way that the Chiefs can stop the juggernaut rolling along. Most spreads around are giving the Chiefs a 15 or so point start, but the Patriots are touchdown lovers and will easily put on two more than Kansas City.

Prediction: New England -15.5 or by 13+

3. Total points

You're looking at around 47 points for the over/under in this game, though I have seen some as high as 50 points. Let's start with the Patriots. Can anybody see the Patriots staying under 35 or even 40 points for this game? I would simply be amazed if they did. The array of offensive options that Brady has is remarkable.

Green-Ellis, Welker, Branch, Gronkowski and Hernandez have all scored at least four touchdowns each. Add to that that Stephen Gostowski is good for at least two or three field goals, and I'd say 35 points is a sure thing for the Patriots in this one. However, the Patriots could switch off late. Teams have a funny habit of doing that —especially if they're up by 30 and Brady has an early mark. That's why I'm leaning towards the Patriots building up a big lead, but not scoring more than 35 points in this one.

That leaves us with the Chiefs. Tyler Palko is solid, but when the heat's on, he tends to throw the ball away to the other team. I think the Chiefs' offense is in real trouble without Cassel, and even against the Patriots defense which struggles to stop a nose bleed, they won't score points.

I'd say they score maybe a touchdown and maybe a field goal, but don't bank on it. I can't believe I'm backing the under in a Patriots game, but with Kansas City's current offensive inabilities and the Patriots wanting to keep Brady healthy, I think it could be a quieter game for the scorer than we've come to expect from encounters with New England.

Prediction: Under 47 points

4. First scoring play

Whilst the New England defense leaves nothing to be desired in terms of the yards it allows — over 300 passing yards and 100 rushing yards per game —I can't see the Chiefs behind Tyler Palko exploding out of the blocks in this one. Should they get the ball first, they will be giving it back to the Patriots without too much of a fuss.

New England at home, Monday Night Football, opening drive — they're going to be looking to make a statement early. And it takes something special to stop the Patriots' opening drive going for a score. The only teams that have stopped the Patriots scoring on their opening drive have been the New York Jets and the Pittsburgh Steelers — both considered strong defensive teams. The Chiefs? Yeah, they're not that strong. New England will score early. If you don't believe me, look at the opening drives of the Patriots this year — touchdowns on four occasions and field goals on two.

I'm going field goal in this one. Not because the Patriots lack the ability to move the chain, but because they do, and as a result of that, the Chiefs will be dropping a lot back in coverage. That means Green-Ellis is going to have to carry the ball more, but I think he gets stopped by a Chiefs unit that has only allowed three rushing touchdowns all year. Stephen Gostowski has great range and is good for an early field goal to get the offense going.

Prediction: New England field goal

5. First touchdown scorer

Again, I can't see Kansas City scoring a touchdown in New England before New England. So I'm not going to even consider it and explore the possibilities because there are none to explore. Tom Brady has noticeably been throwing to his tight-ends more than usual this year, and this is reflected in the 1000-plus yards and 13 touchdowns that Gronkowski and Hernandez have between them.

The little magician known as Wes Welker is also known as Brady's favorite man to hit, as his 1,006 yards leads the NFL to date.

The Chiefs have been strong this year in stopping the red-zone rushing attempts — allowing only three so far — and Green-Ellis won't be the man they go to early. Without a kick or punt return for a touchdown, it's going to be coming from the air and you're looking at either Welker, Hernandez, Gronkowski or Branch for your winner.

Drop Welker out of the equation as the double coverage he's most likely to receive rules him out of a long-range effort, and his height rules him out of a jump-ball situation in the end-zone. With the money guys appearing to be the tight ends, I think they're going to receive extra attention in the red zone.

Both Gronkowski and Hernandez are good enough to get open and be a target in the end zone, but I've got a hunch that with the knowledge of having an extra coverage back, Brady will be looking elsewhere.

Enter Deion Branch. His recent touchdowns against both the New York Jets and Pittsburgh Steelers have been less than 10-yard efforts, and with the knowledge extra coverage is on his usual go-to guys, Brady may opt for an early throw to Branch.

It won't be Wes, and it won't be Green-Ellis. The rest is up for grabs and I love the outside guys, so Branch it is. I picked the first four last week and was unlucky to not have five when Jordy Nelson scored twice in the second half, but nothing in the first. Here's hoping for some better luck. So enjoy the night, and may Branch bring his catching hands to this one.

First touchdown scorer: Deion Branch