NFL Week 11 Picks: Home Teams Guaranteed to Dominate Easily

The Denver Broncos will be far from the only team to benefit from some home cooking in Week 11. This trio is sure to send the fans home happy this weekend:

Green Bay Packers (vs. Tampa Bay)

Nothing against the Buccaneers here, who have far more talent on defense than their No. 29 ranking would suggest, but better units than this one have been picked apart by Aaron Rodgers. Tampa Bay can’t even count on its run defense to make Green Bay one-dimensional, meaning even more Lambeau Leap opportunities for the home team.

Even battling a thumb injury, Josh Freeman ought to be in for a big day against the vulnerable Green Bay secondary. Keeping up with the Packer offense, though, is beyond his abilities.

San Francisco 49ers (vs. Arizona)

Even after eight wins in nine games, it’s hard to take the 49ers seriously as an elite NFC team. Alex Smith’s 29th-ranked passing offense hasn’t looked much like a Super Bowl contender, but the ground game and defense will continue to be enough to keep the Niners rolling against another subpar opponent.

Credit where credit is due for the Cardinals’ clutch finish in upsetting Philadelphia, but John Skelton won’t get a chance for another thriller here. The San Francisco runners—probably Frank Gore with a healthy dose of Kendall Hunter—will dominate the ball and the clock, and even Larry Fitzgerald won’t be able to put up enough points to win it for Arizona.

New England Patriots (vs. Kansas City)

It would be a lot more fun to believe that Tyler Palko—starting in place of injured Matt Cassel—could lead a miraculous victory like the one Arizona’s Skelton managed against the Eagles. Sadly, this Monday night matchup will be chalk all the way, with the reeling Chiefs having to visit red-hot New England.

A raw QB like Palko (with his 13 career pass attempts) has no chance against a Bill Belichick defense. Even if Kansas City’s defense were still on the roll that saw it pick off six passes against Oakland—and embarrassing losses to Miami and Denver have put an end to that roll anyway—they wouldn’t be able to hold Tom Brady to a low enough point total for Palko and the offense to stay in the game.