NFL Week 11 Picks: Chances Each Underdog Actually Pulls off the Upset

They say that in the NFL any team can win on any given Sunday. 

Never has that adage been more true than this season. 

Underdogs have certainly been able to hold their own better than I can ever remember. Bills over the Patriots? Jaguars over the Ravens? Cardinals over the Eagles?

OK, maybe that last one wasn't as big of a surprise as the two touchdown spread indicated.  

What are the chances the underdogs in Week 11 pull off more upsets?

Kansas City Chiefs (+15) at New England Patriots

I just don't see this one happening. 

Nothing against Tyler Palko, but was starter Matt Cassel going to really going to beat the Patriots at home? 

Don't think so. 

Unless Tamba Hali can create constant pressure and the Chiefs force a few turnovers, this game will get out of hand early. 

Chances of upset: Five percent

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (+8)

The Redskins, to me, have the most non-threatening and most boring offense in the league. 

I guess that's what happens with Rex Grossman or John Beck behind center and no Santana Moss or Chris Cooley. 

Dallas is humming on offense and their defensive line will create constant pressure on Grossman, forcing him into hurried decision in this one. 

You'll switch this one off by halftime. 

Chances of upset: 10 percent

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+14) at Green Bay Packers

I'm not sure if the Packers can go 16-0, but their first loss isn't coming at home this week against the team that's lost three straight and struggling on both sides of the ball. 

Aaron Rodgers will dice through the Bucs' secondary and lead his team to nearly 40 points. 

Chances of upset: 10 percent

Carolina Panthers (+7) at Detroit Lions

Based on how well he's played this season, I expected the Panthers to have more than two wins right now. 

Come on, Cam. 

With their poor defense, it'll be tough for Carolina to limit the Lions' offense, but in this battle of young quarterbacks with huge arms and elite receivers to throw to, you never know what could happen. 

Right now, Detroit is the far more complete team. 

Chances of upset: 20 percent

Oakland Raiders at Minnesota Vikings (+1)

Can the Vikings beat the Raiders at home? 

Definitely. 

This is my pick for most entertaining contest of the week. 

Both clubs have great running games and defenses that can be exploited by the run. 

Think Michael Bush vs. Adrian Peterson. 

I'll give the upper hand to Carson Palmer in the battle of the quarterbacks, but this game will go down to the wire. 

Chances of upset: 50 percent

San Diego Chargers (+4) at Chicago Bears

I've been saying this all week: this is a horrible matchup for the Chargers. 

What does Philip Rivers do? 

Turns over the football. 

In which area does the Bears' secondary excel? 

Creating turnovers. 

The Chargers have an injury-riddled offensive line and Julius Peppers lurks on the edge for Chicago. 

Did you see what Michael Bush did to San Diego's run defense last week?

What will Matt Forte do?

Chances of upset: 30 percent

Seattle Seahawks (+3) at St. Louis Rams

The Rams have the worst run defense in football. 

They allow more than 150 yards on the ground per game. 

Marshawn Lynch has totaled over 100 rushing yards the last two weeks. 

That will be the difference in this game that won't get much viewership outside of the St. Louis and Seattle TV markets. 

Chances of upset: 70 percent

Tennessee Titans (+7) at Atlanta Falcons

The Titans are a pesky group and their starting to get production out of Chris Johnson. 

If he can break through the Falcons' stout run defense, this game could get tight. 

However, Atlanta has superior talent on the outside and have a pretty good running back themselves in Michael Turner. 

I'll give the Falcons the edge at home. 

They're pretty good in the Georgia Dome. 

Chances of upset: 45 percent

Arizona Cardinals (+10) at San Francisco 49ers

The Cardinals win over the Eagles was an upset last week, right? 

Whether you think it was or not, the 49ers are a little better on defense. 

Just a little better. 

Last week was a pleasant surprise for the fans in Arizona, but reality hits this week when the 49ers dominate the Cardinals offense. 

Alex Smith does enough to lead to a closer victory than we expect. 

Chances of upset: 20 percent