College Basketball Picks: Akron-Virginia Commonwealth, Dec. 17, 2008

College Basketball Picks: Akron +8.5 (-110)—Wed., Dec. 17, 2008 7:30p

Not so much separates the Akron Zips and the Virginia Commonwealth Rams statistically that either of these teams deserved to be this big of a favorite over the other, so Akron offers nice value at this number.

Akron is 6-3 straight up overall, and they are a nice 2-1 on the road, upsetting Niagara outright and beating Fairleigh Dickinson by 44. In their other road game, they actually covered the number at Pittsburgh.

The Zips have been solid defensively, allowing only 59.2 points per game on 40.3 percent shooting, and that will make any team desirable as a decided underdog like this. If you take out that Pittsburgh game, Akron allowed an average of just 50.0 points in their other two road contests.

Now VCU has an identical 6-3 SU record, but they are allowing 68.2 points per game defensively. Given that they do not figure to match their scoring average of 76.1 points vs. the Akron defense, that defense makes them vulnerable here, and even if the Rams do manage to get a decent lead, the backdoor will always be open.

We do not expect that to happen, however, as we see the Zips keeping this contest close from start to finish. With a little luck, an outright upset would not be impossible.

College Basketball Free Pick: Akron +8.5 (-110)—Courtesy of LT Profits

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