NFL's FARCE Power Ratings and Week 16 Predictions

Zach FeinDec 16, 2008

The Plaxico Burress incident affected more than just Burress.

Coming off a five-game stretch all against winning teams and outscoring them by more than 10 points per game, the Giants were proclaimed as all but a sure thing to reach the Super Bowl. And then came the Burress shooting and suspension.

The Giants won their first game after against the Washington Redskins, which was just a day after the shooting rumor spread. In the days that followed, Burress faced two counts of illegal gun possession, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg called for Burress to receive jail time, and the Giants suspended him for the rest of the year.

TOP NEWS

Bleacher Report1w

Bleacher Report1w

Bleacher Report1w

The following game—against the Philadelphia Eagles, who were just a week removed from Donovan McNabb's benching—the Giants managed just 14 points and 211 yards, their lowest totals of the year; and 123 passing yards, their second-lowest of the year. The 211 total yards they gained were the least they gained since Week 16 of 2006.

That game they allowed 140 yards rushing—they had allowed more just once, in their only loss up to that point against the Cleveland Browns—presumably due to the distractions faced by Antonio Pierce, who was caught up in the Burress fiasco.

Pierce was partying with Plaxico when the gun went off, and in the week between the Redskins and Eagles games, he testified before a grand jury.

Sunday night against the Dallas Cowboys, the Giants amassed 218 total yards, their second-lowest total all year, just behind the prior week's total. Thousand-yard rusher Brandon Jacobs was out due to an injury, and the Giants had under 80 yards rushing for the first time all year.

It should be noted that in their first six games, the Giants faced two two-win teams and three-, four-, and five-win teams (St. Louis, Cincinnati, Seattle, Cleveland, and San Francisco), with the only other team being the 7-7 Redskins.

Every one of their remaining opponents after those six games is over .500 on the year, with the lone exception being those Redskins. Those remaining 11 teams include five division winners and six games against division foes.

With both the Giants' and Titans' losing this week, how did the top of the Week 15 FARCE ratings change?

(Jump represents the difference of this week's and last week's ratings. Increases are in green and decreases are in red.)

The final-score predictions haven't done so well through the first two weeks I've done them, so I changed the 150 denominator in the expected score to 135, as a denominator of 136.9 produces the best prediction of WinScore (using a 2.37 exponent; a denominator of 125 is best with an exponent of three). Note: This change was not done to the ratings, just to the final score predictions below.

I do not want to make the expected score in the formula so high or low (which would occur by changing the 150 to 120), because a team beating the Lions by 20 might even drop in their rating if the expected score is too high.

(MGM Mirage has not posted their over/unders, so I am using the Caesers/Harrah's/Rio line shown on the linked page.)

Indianapolis over JACKSONVILLE, 26-18 Vegas line: Colts -6.5

Baltimore over DALLAS, 20-20. The Cowboys came out a .1-point winners. Vegas line: Cowboys -4.5.

TENNESSEE over Pittsburgh, 20-15. Vegas line: Steelers -1

Miami over KANSAS CITY, 24-16. Vegas line: Dolphins -4

Arizona over NEW ENGLAND, 21-23. Vegas line: Patriots -8

CLEVELAND over Cincinnati, 20-14. Vegas line: Browns -3

WASHINGTON over Philadelphia, 18-21. Vegas line: Eagles -4.5

St. Louis over SAN FRANCISCO, 20-24. Vegas line: 49ers -5

Atlanta over MINNESOTA, 21-24. Vegas line: Vikings -3.5

New Orleans over DETROIT, 34-16. Vegas line: Saints -6.5

NEW YORK GIANTS over Carolina, 22-17. Vegas line: Giants -3