Green Bay Packers-Jacksonville Jaguars Preview

Sorry for the delay, but my Favre vs. Montana article was getting too much play! Let's get right to it.

Packers pass offense vs. Jaguars pass defense: slight edge to Green Bay (+1)

The Packers rank 10th in the league with 232.8 yards per game, and the Jaguars rank 13th, yielding 204.9. The Packers are forced to pass more because they are down, and Jacksonville has to defend fewer passes for the same reason, so the modifiers are a wash.

Packers rush offense vs. Jaguars rush defense: slight edge to Green Bay (+1)

The Packers rushing attack is up to 111.2 yards per game, good for 17th in the league. But Ryan Grant is getting on track now, so this part of Green Bay's game is trending up. Meanwhile, the Jaguars give up 112.8 per game, which ranks 20th. Because of similar records, the Packers run less often and the Jaguars are run one more—again a wash.

Jaguars pass offense vs. Packers pass defense: slight edge ot Green Bay (+1)

Here Jacksonville is ranked 16th with 205.5 yards per game and Green Bay is ranked 12th, yielding 204.5 per game. Jacksonville passes more and the Packers are passed on less, so again, the rankings are a pretty good indicator.

Jaguars rush offense vs. Packers rush defense: solid edge to Jacksonville (+3)

The Jaguars average 112.1 yards per game and rank 16th even though they don't run much—i.e. that rank is artificially low. The Packers are run on a lot, but teams are successful with it: Green Bay ranks 27th, giving up 141.6 per contest.

Miscellaneous: advantage Green Bay (+2)

The Jaguars are at home, the Packers still have slim playoff hopes. The Jaguars are plus a half-yard vs. their opponents in the punting game and +2.4 yards in kick returns, giving them the edge their over Green Bay (+3.8, -3.9). But Mason Crosby is better on kick-offs and field goals (22-26) than Josh Skobee (18-23).

However, the Packers injuries are piling up and they certainly must commit more penalties. On the other hand, Jacksonville is without Matt Jones finally (for what that's worth) and has one of the worst lines in the game because of injuries.

Ultimately, the Packers out-score their opponents by 2.8 points per game on the strength of a turnover margin of +7. Jacksonville is out-scored by an average 3.2 points partially because they are a -3 in turnovers.

For the Packers to have out-scored their opponents en route to a 5-8 record, Green Bay must either blow teams out like the Bears (37-3) or lose close ones, like three of the last four losses (by a total of eight points).

In fact, Green Bay has had only one victory that was not double-digit (Minnesota in Week One, when the team was healthy) and two losses that were double-digit (Dallas in Week Three and New Orleans last month).

Yet, my figures say this is a +2 game for the Packers, so I guess I am saying we will win a close one this week: 30-28. I am 8-5 on Packers games, picking four of the five wins and half of the losses.

I only nailed the point spread in the rematch against Minnesota.