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NFL Fact or Fiction: Eagles Will Face Patriots in Super Bowl XLVI

Josh ToyofukuOct 23, 2011

Back in the preseason, all of the NFL experts were predicting the Philadelphia Eagles (2-4) would take on the New England Patriots (5-1) in Super Bowl XLVI in Indianapolis.

Well, the season is now almost two months underway and things aren't exactly going as planned.

The Eagles have struggled to show that they are a cohesive team and the "Dream Team" isn't performing to the high expectations. 

The Patriots on the other hand, are playing more accordingly to plan but have issues defensively and rely a bit too much on quarterback Tom Brady to bail them out.

So is a rematch of Super Bowl XXXVIII fact or fiction?

Read on to find out.

Eagles Prolific Offense

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The Eagles have the ability to put points on the board.

Between quarterback Michael Vick, wide receivers DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, and running back LeSean McCoy, the Eagles have the third-best total offense in terms of yards and the top rushing offense.

With those four players on the field a big play is always possible. They've combined for 25 passing plays and 10 rushing plays of over 20 yards.

However there is one team ahead of them in almost every offensive category.

Patriots Tom Brady-Led Offense

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With former MVP quarterback Tom Brady leading the way, the New England Patriots are one of the best, if not the best offensive team in football.

They lead the league in total offense, passing offense and first downs. The Patriots are also third in total points with 185 on the season.

Brady and his favorite target, wide receiver Wes Welker, have teamed up for a total of 785 yards—the most in the NFL. Additionally, Welker has caught six touchdown passes and has been involved in 13 plays of over 20 yards.

As long as those two are healthy, this offense will keep tearing up the league.

Eagles Offensive Line Problems

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The Eagles offensive line has been very bad this season.

They have only given up nine sacks, but a large part of that low number is because Michael Vick is such a great athlete and has the ability to scramble so easily.

It's what happens after the offensive line breakdown and the scramble that hurts Philadelphia.

They don't allow Vick enough time to make good decisions. When Vick doesn't have the time he needs, he tends to turn the ball over. 

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Patriots Need a Balanced Passing Attack

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Wide receiver Wes Welker is leading the NFL in receiving yards with 785 and has six touchdowns to accompany that.

However, no one else in the New England receiving corps is close. Tight end Rob Gronkowski is next in line with 401 yards and five touchdowns.

When the game or drive is on the line, it's a safe bet to say that the ball will be going to Welker. While it usually works, it would be much more beneficial to the Patriots if Brady had another big-time weapon.

This is where Chad Ochocinco needs to step up. If he can somehow emerge in the second half of the season and take over the deep threat role vacated by Randy Moss, the Patriots would be able to bring back their offense of old.

However, no one is holding their breath.

Eagles Turnover Troubles

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While the Eagles have big-play potential at any moment, they also have turnover potential.

The Eagles lead the league with 11 interceptions, seven rushing fumbles and three rushing fumbles lost.

On top of that, they have two receiver fumbles—both were lost.

This unwanted ability to turn the ball over has essentially negated the Eagles ability to have the big play. When they turn the ball over, they don't score.

Patriots Take Care of the Football

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The Patriots do a very good job of keeping the ball in their hands.

Even though Tom Brady has thrown eight interceptions this year, four of them came in one game.

The running backs, led by BenJarvus Green-Ellis, have yet to turn the ball over once this season. In fact, Green-Ellis has yet to fumble in his career. That clearly makes them the best in that category.

The only fumble for the receivers slipped out of the hands of tight end Aaron Hernandez.

By not turning the ball over, the Patriots give Tom Brady all he needs to work his magic.

Eagles Linebacker Liability

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When healthy, the front four of the Eagles defense is to be feared.

Even though the secondary hasn't exactly figured it out yet, the cornerback trio of Asante Samuel, Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie could be one of the best in the league.

The linebacker corps is another story.

They are all very young and have yet to build chemistry with each other.

Additionally, the middle linebacker is usually the leader of the defense emotionally and statistically. While Jamar Chaney is living up to the statistical part, he has yet to assert himself as the vocal leader of the Eagles defense.

Patriots' Troublesome Pass Defense

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When a player like cornerback Devin McCourty leads the team in tackles, that's usually a bad thing.

It means that pressure isn't being put on quarterbacks, and ball carriers are getting beyond the line of scrimmage and linebackers. This forces players in the secondary to make plays that they aren't used to.

Not surprisingly, the Patriots are dead last in pass defense.

They have given up 1,933 yards which translates to 322 yards per game and 10 touchdowns.

New England is lucky they have Tom Brady to light up the scoreboard because the pass defense isn't helping.

Strength of Record

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While Mike Vick and the Eagles may look tough in that picture, they haven't played that way so far.

The Eagles are 2-4, with both wins came against teams who are at .500 or below, the Redskins and Rams. 

All four of Philadelphia's losses have been against teams above .500 and that doesn't bode well for the future.

The Patriots on the other hand are 5-1 with their only loss to the surging Bills. It was a game that new England had in its grasp, but in a very un-Tom Brady-like performance, the MVP quarterback threw four interceptions.

The two teams have had very different starts to their seasons as the Eagles have been one of the worst teams in the NFL and the Patriots remain one of the league's elite.

Fiction

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The fact of the matter is that the Eagles are simply not good enough this season. It is a very tall task for them to make it to the playoffs, let alone advance to the Super Bowl. At this point, a playoff berth should be viewed as a successful season in Philadelphia. 

However the Patriots could make it to Indianapolis. Their problems are smaller and easier to fix—especially when they have Tom Brady. This doesn't guarantee a Super Bowl appearance, but they have a much better chance than the Eagles.

But that doesn't mean it won't happen. Both teams have 10 games left to play and who knows? Maybe they can fulfill the prophecies of the preseason experts.

There's still a lot of football to be played.

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