2012 MLB Free Agency: Predicting the “All-Bust” Team for Next Season

Every year, there are players that are signed to massive free agent contracts, and naturally do not live up to them. There are further players who are naturally signed to good deals, yet for whatever reason fall far short of what was expected.

The poster boy for this for 2011 was Carl Crawford, who got a deservedly large contract, but failed to produce for the Red Sox this past year. Rafael Soriano is another one that comes to mind, after having an okay year for the Yankees.

Based on patterns of play, as well as many other factors such as age and where they play, there are some players that seem ripe for being a free agent bust, and others that will probably come as a shock to you.

The following is the all-bust team for free agents, looking at every position including DH, starting pitcher, and closer.

Catcher: Ryan Doumit

Just about every catcher available on the free agency market either is too old to play often or too bad with the bad to deserve playing often. Ryan Doumit is one of the only catchers on the market who's decent with the bat and is actually young.

While he has an option that will likely be picked up, he's not worth it if he does enter free agency. He's only played 100 games twice in his career, and while he may be solid with the bat, he's a poor fielding catcher, and any damage with the bat could be offset on the defensive end.

First Baseman: Derrek Lee

Derrek Lee finally found his groove in Pittsburgh, where he finished the 2011 season, and as a result there are a few teams that might look to pick up the veteran to see what he has left in the tank.

Despite those 28 games in Pittsburgh, Lee hasn't been a great hitter for a few years now, and any solid streaks are just that. At best he's a guy that a team may pick up to trade later, like the Orioles did, but that's assuming he plays well, which I'm not sure he can.

Second Baseman: Aaron Hill

I'll be surprised if the Arizona Diamondbacks pick up his options, though since they traded for him it makes sense to. I'd be more surprised if he got a good deal during free agency if they decide not to keep him around.

Despite the resurgence with Arizona, Hill has had one good season, yet he's treated like an upper-level second baseman. Whoever ends up with him will certainly be disappointed in 2012, as he hasn't proven he can consistently perform.

Shortstop: Ramon Santiago

I wanted to use Yuniesky Betancourt here, but I've used enough players with team options hanging. Instead, we have Ramon Santiago, a second baseman and shortstop who's making some waves after a solid ALCS performance against the Texas Rangers.

Santiago falls into the camp of players who don't play every day, yet are just effective enough that some teams will overspend to bring in a guy who they believe could be an everyday starter. He's also considered to be a very good fielder, which adds to his value.

He's more likely to be a bust aversion by signing a small deal with a small market team than great play, but we'll see.

Third Baseman: Greg Dobbs

Greg Dobbs had a career resurgence of sorts after becoming the Marlins' everyday third baseman this season. 23 doubles and a .275 batting average will definitely get the job done at third base, and given the strength of the position especially in the NL, he's likely to get a nice deal.

Unfortunately, he's not a good fielding third baseman, and he is very impatient at the plate. Combine that with a 0.0 WAR this past season and it seems like he'll be overpaid big time, even if he remains a 100-game player.

Left Fielder: Ryan Ludwick

Ryan Ludwick has two things going for him that could net a solid contract. His good years with the Cardinals are not too far behind, and while he struggled a bit this season, some will chalk that up to having to play for the Padres; after all, he did have the most home runs of any Padre this past season with 11.

That being said, his road batting average was barely over .250, and his stats got no better after he was traded to Pittsburgh. He looks like a safe pickup for a few million a year, when the reality is actually far from that, as he is on the decline.

Center Fielder: Grady Sizemore

I don't see the Indians picking up his option, so Sizemore is likely a free agency. He falls under the high-risk high-reward group, as he is a great player when healthy. The problem is that he hasn't been for a few years now.

I see no chance at Sizemore returning to his former glory, unfortunately, and any clubs who shells out the big bucks on him looking for the high reward will be regretting it in a couple years.

Right Fielder: Cody Ross

Cody Ross's 2010 playoff performance and emergence for the Giants was amazing to watch, and it's still remembered a year later, despite the fact that the Giants are down to earth now.

He had a decent enough year that he could get a nice contract, especially since his history with Florida makes him look like a safe pickup. Having said that, his power already seems to be decreasing, and he seems to be someone who flourishes on a contender, when he'd most likely be picked up by a smaller market team.

Designated Hitter: David Ortiz

In reality, the only DHs on the market this offseason who are productive enough so that they could be busts are David Ortiz and Jason Kubel. Teams will likely know just what they are getting with Kubel, but with Ortiz I'm not so sure.

In a sense, it's ridiculous that I'm putting Ortiz on here. After all, he's been good for 35 HR and 100 RBI for so long that he's one of the few sure things on this year's free agent list, no?

I actually think this is Ortiz's resurgence before fading back to 2008-09 levels next year, and especially if he ends up with another team, I think he'll have a tough year. Needless to say, I welcome him proving me wrong if he's got some left in the tank, as putting him on here can backfire big time.

Starting Pitcher: Edwin Jackson

Should CC Sabathia decide not to opt out of his contract, Edwin Jackson's place as a top three free agent pitcher will be cemented. Factor in his youth (28) and he will likely have a deal in the eight-figure range.

He won't be able to live up to it. He's a solid pitcher, but he's a middle of the rotation guy, and being tossed into an ace or number two role will not end well.

Closer: Matt Capps

Matt Capps has a lot of upside, as he has a lot of closing experience and is only 28. Despite an iffy season in Minnesota, there are some teams that may pay big for him.

This would certainly be a mistake. I've never bought into Capps being an elite closer, and this year was more likely what we'll see from Capps in future years, especially if he can't keep the home runs down.